I have several deadlines converging on me all at once right now. As a result, I've not given Rocky Mountain Fever the attention it deserves. I've got plenty to say and plan to get caught up later this week. Be sure to check back soon or subscribe to the RSS feed if you haven't already.
Thanks!
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Meet the Revamped Broncos O-Line
LT: Ryan Clady
LG: Chris Kuper
C: Kory Lichtensteiger
RG: Montrae Holland
RT: Ryan Harris
Backup: Isaac Snell, G; Erik Pears, T
There's a lot to be excited about from this group. I'm looking forward to watching this unit develop. 2009 could be a big year in the mile high city!
LG: Chris Kuper
C: Kory Lichtensteiger
RG: Montrae Holland
RT: Ryan Harris
Backup: Isaac Snell, G; Erik Pears, T
There's a lot to be excited about from this group. I'm looking forward to watching this unit develop. 2009 could be a big year in the mile high city!
Draft Analysis: Day 2
#108: Kory Lichtensteiger, C: What's with all these lineman from mid-majors? Lichtensteiger probably lasts until our next pick and maybe even until round 5; however, Denver clearly coveted Kory enough to draft him a little early. Some may say this is a reach, but I am enormously happy with this selection. There's a lot to like this kid. Lichtensteiger is an incredibly likable guy with a blue-collar work ethic. He is a ferocious competitor on the field. He's among the more polished centers available in this years draft with respect to technique. He also possesses fantastic lower-body strength and is an enormously effective drive blocker in the running game.
The knock on Lichtensteiger is his poor track record defending 3-technique tackles in pass protection. This is likely the reason he made the switch from guard to center at Bowling Green. He also is a little light to play center in the NFL; however, at 298 lbs, he's already bigger than Nalen. Denver likes lineman who lack prototypical size and Lichtensteiger should therefore fit right in. There is a lot of silly discussion about Lichtensteiger's durability. He played an entire season with a torn labrum and waited until the off season to have corrective surgery. Does that sound like a guy who's not durable?
I'm a little concerned that Denver hasn't addressed the defensive tackle or middle linebacker positions as of yet. Otherwise, great pick. Grade: A
#119: Jack Williams, CB: Williams is the second MAC player Denver has drafted in a row. Frankly I'm shocked by this pick as I think Denver has a shot to fill some big needs with a player like Beau Bell or Letroy Guion, both of whom are still on the board. Williams is only 5'9" tall but has adequate bulk (185 lbs). He has excellent zone coverage skills and is a fantastic tackler. He forced six fumbles last season for Kent State to match his 10 interceptions. Williams is a hard hitting player with fantastic speed and quickness. He's also an experienced kick and punt returner.
The knock on Williams is that his size is a red zone liability. He'll have trouble matching up against bigger receivers. He's rough around the edges technically and will struggle in man-to-man and underneath coverage. He's played with some nagging injuries and missed a game or two as a result. Durability is therefore a concern but shouldn't be an overriding factor in my opinion.
With Paymah failing to reach his potential and Foxworth likely on his way out of town, Williams is a need in this year's or next year's draft. He's a physical kid who'll be a good option in nickel packages. There's also a good chance that Denver converts Williams to free safety. He's got the range to cover a lot of ground, reads the quarterback well, and delivers punishing hits. It'll be interesting to see where he fits. I'm a little surprised by this selection given our glaring needs, but overall think Williams is a solid prospect as a nickel back or free safety. Grade: B
#139: Ryan Torain, RB: Torain's pick is undoubtedly an attempt to remedy Denver's paltry power success percentage and red zone touchdown percentage from last season. Realistically, Torain is probably a fullback or short-yardage back type rather than an every-down starter. He's a north-south type runner with the strength to move the pile. He doesn't have great elusiveness or breakaway speed, so don't expect to see him much outside of the red zone. While RB's with Torain's size are few and far between in this year's draft, there are a handful of guys I like better with this pick including Cory Boyd and Jalen Parmele. But hey, the Broncos are supposed to be the best in the business at this late-round runningback thing, right? Grade: C-
#148: Carlton Powell, DT: Given that Guion, Hayden, Rubin, and Okam are all on the board, this pick astonishes me. Powell is an undersized 2-gap defender without the speed to consistently pressure the quarterback. His lateral mobility is poor and he's a terrible tackler. Defensive tackle was Denver's biggest need heading into today's draft. With the plethora of talent still available at this pick, the Broncos could have made a big splash in the 5th round. I'm terribly disappointed in this pick. Grade: D-
#183: Spencer Larsen, ILB: We may never know whether or not Nick Hayden would've adorned a Broncos jersey had he survived two more picks. Rather than add desperately needed depth to the defensive line interior, Denver went with another need at inside linebacker. Larsen, who turns 24 this year, has the size to play the position but in almost every other way he's a project. Still, Larsen gives Denver a project ILB for a low price. He should contribute on special teams immediately. This isn't the splash at a needed position that Beau Bell or Jonathan Goff would have made, but its definitely a guy who'll have a shot to make the roster. Grade: C
#219: Joshua Barrett, S: Barrett is an absolute steal at this pick. He is a high-character player who was the leader of the Sun Devils defense in 2007. He's everything you want in a safety: great ball skills, world class speed, great size, great blitzing ability, etc. Barrett likely slipped because he red shirted his freshman year with an injury and played through a pectoral injury in 2007. At the end of last year, he missed two games with a knee sprain. Heading into the draft, Barrett projected as high as a 3rd-round pick. Denver is fortunate to grab a great player so late in the game. Grade: A+
#226: Peyton Hillis, FB: Hillis is a big kid with a lot of promise. He has the power to move the pile, great hands, and pretty good speed (4.66 40-time) for a guy his size. After playing in a tough conference, he's a proven talent. What's more, Hillis is an exceptional pass blocker. The knock on Hillis is that he's not a prototypical lead-blocking fullback. He struggles as a lead blocker in the running game. These aren't big concerns for Denver, however, because the Broncos run more of a one-back offense. Last season fullbacks were primarily used in split back formations to max protect Jay Cutler in the shotgun (a strange formation) and in the red zone. My guess is that Hillis adds an additional short-yardage back with the potential to develop into a long-term solution at fullback. Hillis also has the straight-line speed to be effective on special teams. Great pick. Grade: A
The knock on Lichtensteiger is his poor track record defending 3-technique tackles in pass protection. This is likely the reason he made the switch from guard to center at Bowling Green. He also is a little light to play center in the NFL; however, at 298 lbs, he's already bigger than Nalen. Denver likes lineman who lack prototypical size and Lichtensteiger should therefore fit right in. There is a lot of silly discussion about Lichtensteiger's durability. He played an entire season with a torn labrum and waited until the off season to have corrective surgery. Does that sound like a guy who's not durable?
I'm a little concerned that Denver hasn't addressed the defensive tackle or middle linebacker positions as of yet. Otherwise, great pick. Grade: A
#119: Jack Williams, CB: Williams is the second MAC player Denver has drafted in a row. Frankly I'm shocked by this pick as I think Denver has a shot to fill some big needs with a player like Beau Bell or Letroy Guion, both of whom are still on the board. Williams is only 5'9" tall but has adequate bulk (185 lbs). He has excellent zone coverage skills and is a fantastic tackler. He forced six fumbles last season for Kent State to match his 10 interceptions. Williams is a hard hitting player with fantastic speed and quickness. He's also an experienced kick and punt returner.
The knock on Williams is that his size is a red zone liability. He'll have trouble matching up against bigger receivers. He's rough around the edges technically and will struggle in man-to-man and underneath coverage. He's played with some nagging injuries and missed a game or two as a result. Durability is therefore a concern but shouldn't be an overriding factor in my opinion.
With Paymah failing to reach his potential and Foxworth likely on his way out of town, Williams is a need in this year's or next year's draft. He's a physical kid who'll be a good option in nickel packages. There's also a good chance that Denver converts Williams to free safety. He's got the range to cover a lot of ground, reads the quarterback well, and delivers punishing hits. It'll be interesting to see where he fits. I'm a little surprised by this selection given our glaring needs, but overall think Williams is a solid prospect as a nickel back or free safety. Grade: B
#139: Ryan Torain, RB: Torain's pick is undoubtedly an attempt to remedy Denver's paltry power success percentage and red zone touchdown percentage from last season. Realistically, Torain is probably a fullback or short-yardage back type rather than an every-down starter. He's a north-south type runner with the strength to move the pile. He doesn't have great elusiveness or breakaway speed, so don't expect to see him much outside of the red zone. While RB's with Torain's size are few and far between in this year's draft, there are a handful of guys I like better with this pick including Cory Boyd and Jalen Parmele. But hey, the Broncos are supposed to be the best in the business at this late-round runningback thing, right? Grade: C-
#148: Carlton Powell, DT: Given that Guion, Hayden, Rubin, and Okam are all on the board, this pick astonishes me. Powell is an undersized 2-gap defender without the speed to consistently pressure the quarterback. His lateral mobility is poor and he's a terrible tackler. Defensive tackle was Denver's biggest need heading into today's draft. With the plethora of talent still available at this pick, the Broncos could have made a big splash in the 5th round. I'm terribly disappointed in this pick. Grade: D-
#183: Spencer Larsen, ILB: We may never know whether or not Nick Hayden would've adorned a Broncos jersey had he survived two more picks. Rather than add desperately needed depth to the defensive line interior, Denver went with another need at inside linebacker. Larsen, who turns 24 this year, has the size to play the position but in almost every other way he's a project. Still, Larsen gives Denver a project ILB for a low price. He should contribute on special teams immediately. This isn't the splash at a needed position that Beau Bell or Jonathan Goff would have made, but its definitely a guy who'll have a shot to make the roster. Grade: C
#219: Joshua Barrett, S: Barrett is an absolute steal at this pick. He is a high-character player who was the leader of the Sun Devils defense in 2007. He's everything you want in a safety: great ball skills, world class speed, great size, great blitzing ability, etc. Barrett likely slipped because he red shirted his freshman year with an injury and played through a pectoral injury in 2007. At the end of last year, he missed two games with a knee sprain. Heading into the draft, Barrett projected as high as a 3rd-round pick. Denver is fortunate to grab a great player so late in the game. Grade: A+
#226: Peyton Hillis, FB: Hillis is a big kid with a lot of promise. He has the power to move the pile, great hands, and pretty good speed (4.66 40-time) for a guy his size. After playing in a tough conference, he's a proven talent. What's more, Hillis is an exceptional pass blocker. The knock on Hillis is that he's not a prototypical lead-blocking fullback. He struggles as a lead blocker in the running game. These aren't big concerns for Denver, however, because the Broncos run more of a one-back offense. Last season fullbacks were primarily used in split back formations to max protect Jay Cutler in the shotgun (a strange formation) and in the red zone. My guess is that Hillis adds an additional short-yardage back with the potential to develop into a long-term solution at fullback. Hillis also has the straight-line speed to be effective on special teams. Great pick. Grade: A
Saturday, April 26, 2008
A Royal Shock
Let me preface this by saying that I am ecstatic about Denver's 12th overall pick. I have been an opponent of the "Denver must draft an offensive lineman in the first round" theory from day one. This is primarily because I don't want Denver to go the route of Jacksonville or Baltimore and reach for a player at a needed position. Clady is so athletic and such a distinctive fit for our system that this pick almost seems predestined. Broncos fans should be excited about Clady's potential and regardless of his Wonderlic score and his strange personality get behind him as the future at left tackle.
Eddie Royal at #42, however, was a total shock and largely disappointing. There is a lot about this kid to find intriguing. He's small, but bulky. He's got world class speed. He's a tough kid that's not afraid to run across the middle of the field. He's a good blocker--something Shanahan undoubtedly liked. He fills an immediate need on special teams in the return game. He has the speed to stretch the field and the hands to make the big catch. He's seemingly everything that Denver needs in a receiver to overcome the inadequacies of last year's 7-9 team.
So what's not to like? Well, you've come to the right place. I've grown up in a Hokie family my whole life and don't miss too many Hokie's games. Consequently, I've seen the veritable library of Eddie Royal footage. I know precisely what Denver's getting. Here are my two big concerns:
For all these reasons, I am little weary about this pick. I sure hope Royal proves me wrong! For #42 value, I think I'd be more comfortable with Dexter or DeSean Jackson. Both players are probably purely kick return specialists, but at least you are getting a distinctive talent in a needed role. With Royal, I think Denver was trying to get a first round talent, when really there was a reason many thought he'd still be waiting to hear his number called on Sunday.
I'll be back with more draft coverage tomorrow.
Eddie Royal at #42, however, was a total shock and largely disappointing. There is a lot about this kid to find intriguing. He's small, but bulky. He's got world class speed. He's a tough kid that's not afraid to run across the middle of the field. He's a good blocker--something Shanahan undoubtedly liked. He fills an immediate need on special teams in the return game. He has the speed to stretch the field and the hands to make the big catch. He's seemingly everything that Denver needs in a receiver to overcome the inadequacies of last year's 7-9 team.
So what's not to like? Well, you've come to the right place. I've grown up in a Hokie family my whole life and don't miss too many Hokie's games. Consequently, I've seen the veritable library of Eddie Royal footage. I know precisely what Denver's getting. Here are my two big concerns:
- Durability. I know this has been parroted in the media and I'm not at all concerned about his toe injury or his concussion. Its these two words that terrify me: compartment syndrome. This is a vascular condition that causes your ankles to swell abnormally when your heart rate increases. Its very painful and often chronic. Correcting this condition is extremely difficult and complete correction is virtually impossible. This is based on an explanation offered by a close friend who was discharged from the military because of the same condition. I sure hope Denver has done their homework on this one.
- Beamer Ball. VA Tech is the best in the business at special teams execution. They consistently have an explosive kick return game and punt blocking unit. Some of you may remember DeAngelo Hall was among the nations best kick returners for the Hokies before he entered the league. Understand, a lot of this has to do with the scheme and the coach. Royal has some good experience in a return specialist role, but being a serviceable kick returner for the Hokies doesn't insinuate that you're the next Devin Hester.
- Playing Speed. Eddie Royal showed us world class speed at the combine. If you watch him on film, however, he doesn't play as fast as that time would indicate. In fact, Eddie Royal is not a very 'quick' player on the field. Royal's straight-line speed is every bit as fast as his 4.39 40-time indicates, but he doesn't play with elite quickness when making plays.
For all these reasons, I am little weary about this pick. I sure hope Royal proves me wrong! For #42 value, I think I'd be more comfortable with Dexter or DeSean Jackson. Both players are probably purely kick return specialists, but at least you are getting a distinctive talent in a needed role. With Royal, I think Denver was trying to get a first round talent, when really there was a reason many thought he'd still be waiting to hear his number called on Sunday.
I'll be back with more draft coverage tomorrow.
2008 NFL Draft First Round
I'll be giving my thoughts on the first round as each pick develops. Be sure to check back as I'll keep updating this blog throughout the day!
#1: Jake Long, Miami: Jake Long is an interesting talent, although I don't like him as much as many of the top offensive line prospects in recent years. I'm surprised that Jake went to Miami given that they've spent a first rounder on left tackle Vernon Carney in 2004. Given that Parcell's likes to run a 3-4, I thought Gholston would be Miami's pick in a trade or Glenn Dorsey if they wanted to stay put.
#2: Chris Long, St. Louis: I was disappointed that New Orleans wasn't able to make a deal here. Getting New Orleans the top defensive tackle would have greatly increased Denver's odds of winning the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. St. Louis is already pretty stout along the defensive front, but I think they chose wisely here as Howie Long's son is quite possibly the best defensive end talent we've seen in years. He's got Hall of Fame potential and is easily the surest thing in this year's draft.
#3: Matt Ryan, Atlanta: I hate this pick. I don't think Matt Ryan is even the best quarterback available in this year's draft. Passing on Dorsey at this pick is a testament to the ineptitude of Falcons management. In the off season they hired an understudy to Green Bay's Ted Thompson. I don't think he's off to a good start. The Michael Vick Era has officially ended in Atlanta.
#4: Darren McFadden, Oakland: This is a typical Al Davis move. Despite having a very capable player in Justin Fargas and a budding star in Michael Bush, Davis grabbed the top skill position player at an area where no help is needed. There were plenty of other attractive options here including a trade with New Orleans. Davis will have close to $70 million guaranteed after he completes this move. He better hope he's done adding talent for a while.
#5: Glenn Dorsey, Kansas City: Great. We hadn't even finished celebrating the Jared Allen trade and now this happens. This is a tragedy for Denver. Having to line up opposite this titan for the next eight years is not very appealing. Not only does it hurt to see this freakish athlete in our division, but this officially knocks New Orleans out of the Glenn Dorsey sweepstakes. There is virtually no chance that we'll be receiving Sedrick Ellis. The probability that Denver grabs Brandon Albert at #12 just increased dramatically.
#6: Vernon Gholston, New York Jets: This is not a surprising pick. The Jets 3-4 has been atrocious since Mangini made the switch. The gutted the middle of their defense by shipping Dwayne Robertson and Jonathan Vilma out of town in the off season. After adding Kris Jenkins to line up next to Sean Ellis, Gholston should get plenty of opportunity as a hybrid end rusher/linebacker. Great pick by the Jets. Its hard to ignore the New England Patriots storyline here as well when one reflects on their off season loss of Roosevelt Colvin. My guess is that Keith Rivers is next assuming New England doesn't move down.
#7: Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans (via New England): And so Denver lost the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. No big surprise here. The Saints were determined to add an interior pass rusher in this year's draft and they've landed a great talent in Ellis. The terms of the trade are unclear to me so its hard for me to comment on the intelligence of this deal. If the price was high, this move may have been ill advised given the New Orleans has a need for Rivers, McKelvin, and Ellis--one of which would most certainly have been available at #10. The compensation was the swap of New Orleans early 3rd rounder for New England's late 5th rounder; that's pretty expensive to move up 3 slots...
#8: Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville (via Baltimore): After shelling out a ton of cash for speed rusher Reggie Hayward, it is clear that Jacksonville needed a player like Harvey. Hayward has lost 2 tenths of a second on his 40-time and is now a mediocre talent headed for the sidelines. In Harvey, Jacksonville got one of the most unheralded pass rushers in the draft. This was a dark horse candidate at #12 by Denver in my opinion. Very good pick. With Harvey off the board I'm guessing that Buffalo is now aggressively trying to move down. If they can't, McKelvin should be there guy assuming New England doesn't take him at #10. UPDATE: Jacksonville parted with a pair of 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder to make this deal. This is an enormously expensive, arguably short-sighted move by a team who seemingly has a sense of urgency to win in 2008 at all costs.
#9: Keith Rivers, Cincinnati: I've long maintained that Rivers is easily one of the top 10 overall players in this year's draft. He's a great consolation prize for Cincinnati who was reportedly hoping to land Sedrick Ellis. Cincinnati needs an upgrade at most positions, so I think they settled for the best player available. Great pick.
NOTE: It is now mathematically impossible for Denver to not have at least one of Brandon Albert, Ryan Clady, or Rashard Mendenhall. There is likely at least one team trying to swap picks with New England or Buffalo to move ahead of Denver to take the top tackle or running back on the board.
#10: Jerod Mayo, New England: Many will say this pick is a reach. I'm not sure I agree. This year's linebacker class isn't very deep and Mayo is among the best available. He projects as an impact-level WLB and many believe he can play ILB in the NFL. New England's youngest starting linebacker is Adalius Thomas at 31 years old. This is a desperate need for them in the draft. This year's cornerback class is extremely deep. The 3rd round pick they received from New Orleans will enable them to get a player like Brandon Flowers or Antoine Caison to fill this need. As much as I hate the Patriots, I think they made a good move here.
NOTE: There is no question in my mind that Denver is trying to move down right now. If they covet a tackle, they can swap with Detroit and still have a 100% chance of getting either Albert, Mendenhall, Stewart, or Clady. Expect Denver to move down for an extra first day pick.
#11: Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo: My complaint about this pick is that McKelvin doesn't give them a player with the size to play the Nickel. Make no mistake, Jabari Greer is a starting quality CB in the NFL. While McKelvin fills out a thin unit, he doesn't add great chemistry like a Mike Kelly would have. Also, McKelvin is among the better return men in the draft. The Bills already have among the best in the business in McGee. That doesn't make this a bad pick, but I think Buffalo could have secured a lot more value by moving down.
#12: Ryan Clady, Denver: I predicted earlier that Denver would take Clady at #12 if he was somehow still on the board. In Clady, they've got an fantastic athlete who is ready to step in to a zone blocking scheme that normally takes at least a year to learn. I would have liked to see Denver make a trade with Detroit here, but this is overall a solid pick.
#13: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina: With Derrick Harvey off the board I think that Carolina felt a little handcuffed with this pick. They have spent a number of high picks on running backs in recent years with lackluster results. If Carolina doesn't beef up their run blocking Stewart's talent is wasted. I'm a little surprised that an offensive lineman didn't get the nod here.
NOTE: With all these offensive line prospects slipping, what are the odds that Cherilus is available at #42? Cherilus and Clady would be a home run! Imagine:
Clady, LT
Cherilus, LG
?, C
Kuper, RG
Harris, RT
#14: Chris Williams, Chicago: Todd McShay quote: "Chicago doesn't really need a runningback." Oh really, Todd? Did you see Cedric Benson last year? Apparently not. Apparently Chicago didn't either! In my opinion, this is a big reach. Not only were there far better players available at this pick, there were far better offensive line talents available. I don't get it. There's about a 99.9% chance that Matt Millen takes yet another skill position player here.
I have a sixth sense that Detroit is about to make an embarrassing pick.
#15: Brandon Albert, Kansas City: Kansas City hit a home run here. Albert has the versatility to play guard or tackle. Many people thought he'd be gone in the top 10. Kansas City seems to be using the damage-control compensation they received for Brandon Albert wisely.
#16: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Arizona: Arizona is desperate for talent at defensive back. If Cromartie is anything like his cousin in San Diego, he figures to be a great solution. Additionally, Rodgers-Cromartie gives Arizona an option in the return game they've not had since Josh Scobey left town in 2004. I'm a little surprised to see Mendenhall last this long. I'm guessing Detroit takes them next.
#17: Gosder Cherilus, Detroit: Detroit landed themselves a fantastic player here albeit not one at a coveted position. Still, this makes a lot of sense as he can immediately fill in at guard in the zone blocking scheme (adopted in 2008). He's ultimately a right tackle prospect which makes a lot of sense for Detroit who is already set on the left side with Jeff Backus. This guy was marginally a 1st rounder and this is easily the biggest reach of the draft so far. Classic Matt Millen.
#18: Joe Flacco, Baltimore: This doesn't really impact Denver much because Baltimore picked ahead of Denver in round 2 anyway. We knew they'd add a quarterback at some point today. Flacco at this pick is clearly a need-based pick and he isn't anywhere near the 18th best player in the draft. Still, there's no shortage of pro bowlers who've projected as 2nd rounders, so maybe Baltimore knows something that we don't.
#19: Jeff Otah, Carolina (via Philadelphia): This is a huge positional need and a redeeming pick after taking Stewart at #13. I'm not sure what the compensation is for this pick, but they are addressing a huge need with this selection.
#20: Aqib Talib , Tampa Bay: I'm a little surprised that Mike Kelly didn't come off the board here. Talib arguably is a little better fit because he immediately upgrades the kick return game after Tampa Bay used a half dozen different players in this role last season. Talib is a good value here if his character concerns don't come back to haunt him. Good pick.
#21: Sam Baker, Atlanta (via Washington): Huh? This trade seems desperate. The rookie GM in Atlanta is either establishing a draft legacy for himself or he's showing his experience. This is a shocking reach.
#22: Felix Jones, Dallas: Strange that Rashard Mendenhall, more of a workhorse back, isn't here instead. Jones figures to be a change-of-pace back. With Marion Barber on the roster Dallas has the luxury to grab this style of runner, however. Jones will likely work only outside of the red zone and he has the quickness to exploit a seam. Is he an upgrade over Julius Jones? Time will tell.
#23: Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh: This is the steal of the draft (after maybe Albert Brandon at #15). Tomlin was obviously unimpressed with Fast Willie last year after taking red zone duties away from him in favor of Najeh Davenport. In Mendenhall, Pittsburgh is getting a 300-carry power running who is a much better fit in Tomlin's one-back system. He should immediately upgrade their rushing attack in the red zone. Great pick. Willie Parker is officially on the trading block.
#24: Chris Johnson, Tennessee: Huge reach here. Given the high first day picks invested in RB's over the last several years, you've got to wonder what Tennessee is thinking here. Lendale White was effective last year and Chris Henry looks ready to carry a big load. Chris Brown was a huge bust several years ago. Chris Johnson does fit some distinctive needs for Tennessee, however. Now that Pacman Jones is in Dallas, Tennessee can use a great return man. Chris Johnson is an explosive kick returner with world class speed. He is undersized to be more than a change-of-pace back, however. As a third-down back and kick returner, he's not a horrible pick, but this is a huge reach as Johnson is firmly a second rounder in my opinion.
#25: Mike Jenkins, Dallas: This is a home run for Dallas. Not only are they desperate for talent at cornerback, Mike Jenkins is among the best in the draft. There's no question that Jenkins is the most physical cornerback in the draft. He's an instant upgrade in the nickel and could blossom into a pro bowl athlete.
#26: Duane Brown, Houston: I'm astonished that this many offensive lineman have come off the board thus far. Still, Brown isn't a huge reach this late in the first and he's a big need for Houston. Houston's had a quite day and is a team who should be on the playoff bubble this year. I'm shocked they didn't move on Mendenhall.
#27: Antoine Cason, San Diego: This is a guy I've liberally mentioned as among the most underrated players available in this year's draft. Clearly A.J. Smith feels the same way. Many will consider this a reach, but I saw plenty of Antoine Cason this year--including his single-handed victory over 2nd ranked OSU--and I can tell you this kid is NFL ready. I'm terrified of Cason in the Nickel for a unit that is already very talented in San Diego. Great pick.
#28: Lawrence Jackson, Seattle: I thought there were 3 or 4 guys better than Jackson available at this position. This is a huge reach. Seattle doesn't really have a distinctive need for a pass rusher, either. I don't get it. Terrible pick.
#29: Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco: I expect that Balmer will play end in San Francisco's 3-4 defense. Balmer lacks the size to be an NT type and has plenty of experience at DE and DT. He's versatile enough that he gives San Francisco a lot of versatility at a critical need. What's more, Balmer--a risky albeit talented prospect--is a great value here. Solid pick.
NOTE: San Francisco is among the teams reportedly interested in grabbing ILB Curtis Lofton to play alongside Patrick Willis. Assuming that Denver has an interest in the Al Wilson clone, this is an encouraging pick; however, don't stop holding your breath as San Francisco will be back on the clock shortly.
#30: Dustin Keller, New York: Keller adds a formidable offensive weapon to a team that will benefit from the extra playmaker. Keller should fit in nicely with a fierce group of young offensive talents such as Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington, and Brad Smith. Great pick. This is another near-miss at the ILB position improving Denver's chance of grabbing Conner or Lofton in 13 picks.
#31: Kenny Phillips, New York Giants: Shanahan is undoubtedly none too happy about this one. Ultimately, I think this is fortuitous as I don't think any player in this year's safety class is worth a 2nd rounder. The giants lost Gibril Wilson in the off season and have reloaded in their zone-heavy scheme.
NOTE: Denver is likely thinking Curtis Lofton, Dan Conner, DeJuan Morgan, Zuttah, or a receiver. No DeSean Jackson yet? I guess more were concerned about is 170lb frame than the "experts" thought. There's been enough surprises that Denver should get a first-round quality talent with that pick. I'd be happy with Lofton, Zuttah, or Jackson.
That's the end of the first round! Thanks for tuning in. I'll be sure to post my comments on #42 and the two 4th rounders later tonight!
#1: Jake Long, Miami: Jake Long is an interesting talent, although I don't like him as much as many of the top offensive line prospects in recent years. I'm surprised that Jake went to Miami given that they've spent a first rounder on left tackle Vernon Carney in 2004. Given that Parcell's likes to run a 3-4, I thought Gholston would be Miami's pick in a trade or Glenn Dorsey if they wanted to stay put.
#2: Chris Long, St. Louis: I was disappointed that New Orleans wasn't able to make a deal here. Getting New Orleans the top defensive tackle would have greatly increased Denver's odds of winning the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. St. Louis is already pretty stout along the defensive front, but I think they chose wisely here as Howie Long's son is quite possibly the best defensive end talent we've seen in years. He's got Hall of Fame potential and is easily the surest thing in this year's draft.
#3: Matt Ryan, Atlanta: I hate this pick. I don't think Matt Ryan is even the best quarterback available in this year's draft. Passing on Dorsey at this pick is a testament to the ineptitude of Falcons management. In the off season they hired an understudy to Green Bay's Ted Thompson. I don't think he's off to a good start. The Michael Vick Era has officially ended in Atlanta.
#4: Darren McFadden, Oakland: This is a typical Al Davis move. Despite having a very capable player in Justin Fargas and a budding star in Michael Bush, Davis grabbed the top skill position player at an area where no help is needed. There were plenty of other attractive options here including a trade with New Orleans. Davis will have close to $70 million guaranteed after he completes this move. He better hope he's done adding talent for a while.
#5: Glenn Dorsey, Kansas City: Great. We hadn't even finished celebrating the Jared Allen trade and now this happens. This is a tragedy for Denver. Having to line up opposite this titan for the next eight years is not very appealing. Not only does it hurt to see this freakish athlete in our division, but this officially knocks New Orleans out of the Glenn Dorsey sweepstakes. There is virtually no chance that we'll be receiving Sedrick Ellis. The probability that Denver grabs Brandon Albert at #12 just increased dramatically.
#6: Vernon Gholston, New York Jets: This is not a surprising pick. The Jets 3-4 has been atrocious since Mangini made the switch. The gutted the middle of their defense by shipping Dwayne Robertson and Jonathan Vilma out of town in the off season. After adding Kris Jenkins to line up next to Sean Ellis, Gholston should get plenty of opportunity as a hybrid end rusher/linebacker. Great pick by the Jets. Its hard to ignore the New England Patriots storyline here as well when one reflects on their off season loss of Roosevelt Colvin. My guess is that Keith Rivers is next assuming New England doesn't move down.
#7: Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans (via New England): And so Denver lost the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. No big surprise here. The Saints were determined to add an interior pass rusher in this year's draft and they've landed a great talent in Ellis. The terms of the trade are unclear to me so its hard for me to comment on the intelligence of this deal. If the price was high, this move may have been ill advised given the New Orleans has a need for Rivers, McKelvin, and Ellis--one of which would most certainly have been available at #10. The compensation was the swap of New Orleans early 3rd rounder for New England's late 5th rounder; that's pretty expensive to move up 3 slots...
#8: Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville (via Baltimore): After shelling out a ton of cash for speed rusher Reggie Hayward, it is clear that Jacksonville needed a player like Harvey. Hayward has lost 2 tenths of a second on his 40-time and is now a mediocre talent headed for the sidelines. In Harvey, Jacksonville got one of the most unheralded pass rushers in the draft. This was a dark horse candidate at #12 by Denver in my opinion. Very good pick. With Harvey off the board I'm guessing that Buffalo is now aggressively trying to move down. If they can't, McKelvin should be there guy assuming New England doesn't take him at #10. UPDATE: Jacksonville parted with a pair of 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder to make this deal. This is an enormously expensive, arguably short-sighted move by a team who seemingly has a sense of urgency to win in 2008 at all costs.
#9: Keith Rivers, Cincinnati: I've long maintained that Rivers is easily one of the top 10 overall players in this year's draft. He's a great consolation prize for Cincinnati who was reportedly hoping to land Sedrick Ellis. Cincinnati needs an upgrade at most positions, so I think they settled for the best player available. Great pick.
NOTE: It is now mathematically impossible for Denver to not have at least one of Brandon Albert, Ryan Clady, or Rashard Mendenhall. There is likely at least one team trying to swap picks with New England or Buffalo to move ahead of Denver to take the top tackle or running back on the board.
#10: Jerod Mayo, New England: Many will say this pick is a reach. I'm not sure I agree. This year's linebacker class isn't very deep and Mayo is among the best available. He projects as an impact-level WLB and many believe he can play ILB in the NFL. New England's youngest starting linebacker is Adalius Thomas at 31 years old. This is a desperate need for them in the draft. This year's cornerback class is extremely deep. The 3rd round pick they received from New Orleans will enable them to get a player like Brandon Flowers or Antoine Caison to fill this need. As much as I hate the Patriots, I think they made a good move here.
NOTE: There is no question in my mind that Denver is trying to move down right now. If they covet a tackle, they can swap with Detroit and still have a 100% chance of getting either Albert, Mendenhall, Stewart, or Clady. Expect Denver to move down for an extra first day pick.
#11: Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo: My complaint about this pick is that McKelvin doesn't give them a player with the size to play the Nickel. Make no mistake, Jabari Greer is a starting quality CB in the NFL. While McKelvin fills out a thin unit, he doesn't add great chemistry like a Mike Kelly would have. Also, McKelvin is among the better return men in the draft. The Bills already have among the best in the business in McGee. That doesn't make this a bad pick, but I think Buffalo could have secured a lot more value by moving down.
#12: Ryan Clady, Denver: I predicted earlier that Denver would take Clady at #12 if he was somehow still on the board. In Clady, they've got an fantastic athlete who is ready to step in to a zone blocking scheme that normally takes at least a year to learn. I would have liked to see Denver make a trade with Detroit here, but this is overall a solid pick.
#13: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina: With Derrick Harvey off the board I think that Carolina felt a little handcuffed with this pick. They have spent a number of high picks on running backs in recent years with lackluster results. If Carolina doesn't beef up their run blocking Stewart's talent is wasted. I'm a little surprised that an offensive lineman didn't get the nod here.
NOTE: With all these offensive line prospects slipping, what are the odds that Cherilus is available at #42? Cherilus and Clady would be a home run! Imagine:
Clady, LT
Cherilus, LG
?, C
Kuper, RG
Harris, RT
#14: Chris Williams, Chicago: Todd McShay quote: "Chicago doesn't really need a runningback." Oh really, Todd? Did you see Cedric Benson last year? Apparently not. Apparently Chicago didn't either! In my opinion, this is a big reach. Not only were there far better players available at this pick, there were far better offensive line talents available. I don't get it. There's about a 99.9% chance that Matt Millen takes yet another skill position player here.
I have a sixth sense that Detroit is about to make an embarrassing pick.
#15: Brandon Albert, Kansas City: Kansas City hit a home run here. Albert has the versatility to play guard or tackle. Many people thought he'd be gone in the top 10. Kansas City seems to be using the damage-control compensation they received for Brandon Albert wisely.
#16: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Arizona: Arizona is desperate for talent at defensive back. If Cromartie is anything like his cousin in San Diego, he figures to be a great solution. Additionally, Rodgers-Cromartie gives Arizona an option in the return game they've not had since Josh Scobey left town in 2004. I'm a little surprised to see Mendenhall last this long. I'm guessing Detroit takes them next.
#17: Gosder Cherilus, Detroit: Detroit landed themselves a fantastic player here albeit not one at a coveted position. Still, this makes a lot of sense as he can immediately fill in at guard in the zone blocking scheme (adopted in 2008). He's ultimately a right tackle prospect which makes a lot of sense for Detroit who is already set on the left side with Jeff Backus. This guy was marginally a 1st rounder and this is easily the biggest reach of the draft so far. Classic Matt Millen.
#18: Joe Flacco, Baltimore: This doesn't really impact Denver much because Baltimore picked ahead of Denver in round 2 anyway. We knew they'd add a quarterback at some point today. Flacco at this pick is clearly a need-based pick and he isn't anywhere near the 18th best player in the draft. Still, there's no shortage of pro bowlers who've projected as 2nd rounders, so maybe Baltimore knows something that we don't.
#19: Jeff Otah, Carolina (via Philadelphia): This is a huge positional need and a redeeming pick after taking Stewart at #13. I'm not sure what the compensation is for this pick, but they are addressing a huge need with this selection.
#20: Aqib Talib , Tampa Bay: I'm a little surprised that Mike Kelly didn't come off the board here. Talib arguably is a little better fit because he immediately upgrades the kick return game after Tampa Bay used a half dozen different players in this role last season. Talib is a good value here if his character concerns don't come back to haunt him. Good pick.
#21: Sam Baker, Atlanta (via Washington): Huh? This trade seems desperate. The rookie GM in Atlanta is either establishing a draft legacy for himself or he's showing his experience. This is a shocking reach.
#22: Felix Jones, Dallas: Strange that Rashard Mendenhall, more of a workhorse back, isn't here instead. Jones figures to be a change-of-pace back. With Marion Barber on the roster Dallas has the luxury to grab this style of runner, however. Jones will likely work only outside of the red zone and he has the quickness to exploit a seam. Is he an upgrade over Julius Jones? Time will tell.
#23: Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh: This is the steal of the draft (after maybe Albert Brandon at #15). Tomlin was obviously unimpressed with Fast Willie last year after taking red zone duties away from him in favor of Najeh Davenport. In Mendenhall, Pittsburgh is getting a 300-carry power running who is a much better fit in Tomlin's one-back system. He should immediately upgrade their rushing attack in the red zone. Great pick. Willie Parker is officially on the trading block.
#24: Chris Johnson, Tennessee: Huge reach here. Given the high first day picks invested in RB's over the last several years, you've got to wonder what Tennessee is thinking here. Lendale White was effective last year and Chris Henry looks ready to carry a big load. Chris Brown was a huge bust several years ago. Chris Johnson does fit some distinctive needs for Tennessee, however. Now that Pacman Jones is in Dallas, Tennessee can use a great return man. Chris Johnson is an explosive kick returner with world class speed. He is undersized to be more than a change-of-pace back, however. As a third-down back and kick returner, he's not a horrible pick, but this is a huge reach as Johnson is firmly a second rounder in my opinion.
#25: Mike Jenkins, Dallas: This is a home run for Dallas. Not only are they desperate for talent at cornerback, Mike Jenkins is among the best in the draft. There's no question that Jenkins is the most physical cornerback in the draft. He's an instant upgrade in the nickel and could blossom into a pro bowl athlete.
#26: Duane Brown, Houston: I'm astonished that this many offensive lineman have come off the board thus far. Still, Brown isn't a huge reach this late in the first and he's a big need for Houston. Houston's had a quite day and is a team who should be on the playoff bubble this year. I'm shocked they didn't move on Mendenhall.
#27: Antoine Cason, San Diego: This is a guy I've liberally mentioned as among the most underrated players available in this year's draft. Clearly A.J. Smith feels the same way. Many will consider this a reach, but I saw plenty of Antoine Cason this year--including his single-handed victory over 2nd ranked OSU--and I can tell you this kid is NFL ready. I'm terrified of Cason in the Nickel for a unit that is already very talented in San Diego. Great pick.
#28: Lawrence Jackson, Seattle: I thought there were 3 or 4 guys better than Jackson available at this position. This is a huge reach. Seattle doesn't really have a distinctive need for a pass rusher, either. I don't get it. Terrible pick.
#29: Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco: I expect that Balmer will play end in San Francisco's 3-4 defense. Balmer lacks the size to be an NT type and has plenty of experience at DE and DT. He's versatile enough that he gives San Francisco a lot of versatility at a critical need. What's more, Balmer--a risky albeit talented prospect--is a great value here. Solid pick.
NOTE: San Francisco is among the teams reportedly interested in grabbing ILB Curtis Lofton to play alongside Patrick Willis. Assuming that Denver has an interest in the Al Wilson clone, this is an encouraging pick; however, don't stop holding your breath as San Francisco will be back on the clock shortly.
#30: Dustin Keller, New York: Keller adds a formidable offensive weapon to a team that will benefit from the extra playmaker. Keller should fit in nicely with a fierce group of young offensive talents such as Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington, and Brad Smith. Great pick. This is another near-miss at the ILB position improving Denver's chance of grabbing Conner or Lofton in 13 picks.
#31: Kenny Phillips, New York Giants: Shanahan is undoubtedly none too happy about this one. Ultimately, I think this is fortuitous as I don't think any player in this year's safety class is worth a 2nd rounder. The giants lost Gibril Wilson in the off season and have reloaded in their zone-heavy scheme.
NOTE: Denver is likely thinking Curtis Lofton, Dan Conner, DeJuan Morgan, Zuttah, or a receiver. No DeSean Jackson yet? I guess more were concerned about is 170lb frame than the "experts" thought. There's been enough surprises that Denver should get a first-round quality talent with that pick. I'd be happy with Lofton, Zuttah, or Jackson.
That's the end of the first round! Thanks for tuning in. I'll be sure to post my comments on #42 and the two 4th rounders later tonight!
Final Draft Thoughts
As the 2008 NFL draft rapidly approaches, here are some final thoughts.
First, I want to talk about needs. Here is my list of draft needs by position, in order of priority:
Based on these needs, here's how I see the first couple of rounds shaking out:
That's all I have for now! I'll discuss day 2 strategies after day 1 is finished! I'll be posting throughout the draft today and will give you a postmortem this evening. Enjoy the draft!
First, I want to talk about needs. Here is my list of draft needs by position, in order of priority:
- Defensive Tackle: This morning I was surprised to see that Todd McShay had removed defensive tackle from his list of "needs" in this year's draft. Certainly adding D-Rob helps, but I still don't see a good argument for a bigger need than defensive tackle. For one, there isn't a true 2-gap defender on our thin roster. We have zero injury insurance at the position and certainly won't have any kind of a rotation with the roster as is. Finally, there is no guarantee that Thomas will (a) stay out of jail and (b) play anywhere near his potential in 2008. Take his name out of the hat, and Denver is in terrible shape at a critical position.
- Offensive Line: Pick a position. Holland is probably the surest thing on our lines to produce for 3-5 years. Hamilton is likely to retire after this year as is future Hall of Fame center Tom Nalen. Chris Kuper is an outstanding talent but ultimately may be a best fit at guard. Harris, last year's 68th overall pick, could very well be the future of our franchise at left or right tackle. Fortunately, first-day options along the offensive line are plentiful. Ultimately, a guy who can play all along the line like Williams, Albert, or Cherilus may be the best fit. Although there are some intriguing left tackle prospects to be had early on draft day. Ryan Clady, who looks like a distinctive fit for the zone-blocking scheme, is chief among them.
- Halfback: Gone are the days of roll outs and bootlegs to get Plummer out in space where he works best. For all of Plummer's shortcomings, his playing style sure had a knack for keeping blitzers off balance. With Cutler in town, we are going to have to get serious about pass protection in the pocket. A running back capable of sustaining a block in the passing game is a critical. Last year, Denver allowed 8.5 sacks to blitzing safeties and linebackers. What's more, Denver's power run success percentage was the worst its been in years under Shanahan. This was undoubtedly a culprit behind our paltry touchdown percentage in the red zone. A powerful back with 300-carry potential and pass blocking skills would solve a lot of problems. Unfortunately, there aren't that many 215-pound plus running backs with the elusiveness, vision, speed, and pass blocking skills to reconcile all these issues. To solidly address these needs, Denver will seriously consider grabbing Rashard Mendenhall in the first round.
- Safety: Denver has retained Abdullah and Lynch for one more year. Last season, one injury forced Denver to move Dominique Foxworth out of position to play some safety. Nick Ferguson left Denver while two fresh faces, Manuel and McCree, were signed and will compete for a roster slot. We have adequate depth at the position to survive in 2008 without adding a rookie; however, this unit is incredibly average if not downright terrible. When Abdullah and Lynch leave town next season, someone will have to be signed. Ideally, Denver will take a safety sometime this weekend. Being that the class is not very deep, it may be hard to find a good value. Don't be surprised if a defensive back isn't added until day 2.
- Middle Linebacker: What Niko Koutouvides buys us is time at the position. My suspicion is that Koutouvides is a stopgap option who could potentially provide great depth and be a special teams standout for years to come. While the MLB class is not deep, there are some intriguing prospects available on the first day. Among the, Curtis Lofton is my favorite. I'd also be happy with Jerod Mayo (who arguably is more of a WLB type) if he slipped to us at #42. Beau Bell is a good value in round 4. Vanderbilt's Jonathan Goff is an absolute steal in round 6. I expect Denver will take one of these four players at some point in the draft.
- Kick Return Specialist: Since Reuben Droughns won the starting job in 2004, Denver hasn't had a respectable return game. Attempts at a quality return man have been fruitless. It is believed Denver will target a RB, CB, or WR with return skills at some point this weekend to improve our lousy 2007 field position. Even though its not among our most critical needs, don't be surprised to see a high pick spent on a wide receiver or cornerback who can excel in this role. Brandon Flowers and Chris Johnson are two candidates for this role who've been mentioned liberally in the media.
- Wide Receiver: Denver added a trio of wide receivers in free agency. One of them, Samie Parker, is considered a long shot to make the roster. Another, Keary Colbert, has been the apple of Shanahan's eye since being drafted in 2004. Drawing comparisons to Eddie McCaffrey, Colbert seems the heir apparent at split end heading into 2008. Darrell Jackson, a formidable red zone weapon who's scored 50 touchdowns in 8 seasons, is only with Denver for a year and has had a lot of problems staying on the field since 2004. Brandon Stokley's is also close to the end of his career and will likely retire in the next two seasons. I expect Denver to draft a project player at Wide Receiver anywhere from round 2 to round 7.
- Defensive End: Ekuban will probably leave the team next year. Engelberger should give us at least another 3 years and is great blue-collar depth. Dumervil is a pure pass rush specialist who will work some from defensive tackle on passing downs. That leaves the unproven Crowder and Moss. Both have shown a lot of promise but should they fail to reach their potential Denver may find themselves shorthanded in 2009. I don't consider this to be a critical need but wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive end with run-stopping ability come off the board for a good value. Some have even speculated the Denver will take Moss's teammate Derrick Harvey at #12. I think Harvey is quietly among the most coveted players in the draft and expect Buffalo to take him at #11. If he drops to Denver, it will be interesting to see if they pass on him.
- Cornerback: Shanahan requires his corners to play an extremely physical style of football. For this reason, cornerbacks in Denver tend to spend the regular season pretty banged up. Bly and Bailey have both played through injuries the last several seasons. What's more, Foxworth will test the free agent market next season. After Foxworth leaves town, Denver will be talented but not deep at an important position. This year's cornerback class is so deep that great talents like Antoine Caison can be had as late as round 4. There is also a possibility that McKelvin drops to Denver at #12. If the right player is available at the right pick, I don't think Denver will hesitate to add some depth to the secondary.
Based on these needs, here's how I see the first couple of rounds shaking out:
- 12th Overall Pick: Most interesting to me is what happens with New Orleans in round 1. If they move up to grab Dorsey, I think there is a window of opportunity for Denver to land Sedrick Ellis in the first round. Assuming that they stay put, here are my expectations:
- Mendenhall or Clady? Both are franchise-player quality talents at positions which are distinctive needs. Clady may not be available. If he's not, my best guess is that Denver grabs Mendenhall.
- Wildcards: Don't be surprised to see an unexpected pick here. I've already argued that Denver may have a hard time passing on McKelvin. Keith Rivers could also be picked here in a move that would most certainly result in a D.J. Williams trade at some point this year or next. Derrick Harvey is another player Denver is undoubtedly intrigued by and would be a palatable choice.
- Dumbest Possible Move: Reaching for Chris Williams, Kentwan Balmer, Jerod Mayo, or Kenny Phillips. None of these guys are 12th-pick value. Denver could move down ten picks or more and still rest assured one of these guys are available. In other words, if you must take a DT or OT, move down.
- 42nd Overall Pick: Here are my thoughts on this pick:
- Most Likely Scenario: Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan. If Denver is going to address their needs at the safety position, it will have to happen early as the class is miserably thin (Reggie Nelson, anyone?).
- I'd like to see... If I had my choice, Denver would walk away from this pick with either Curtis Lofton or Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus would immediately add depth at guard and has the run blocking ability to blossom into a fantastic right tackle. Of all the offensive lineman in the draft short of Ryan Clady, Cherilus seems to be the best fit for our team. That said, Cherilus is likely not available at this pick. If we must grab an offensive lineman, the surly Zuttah would be my next choice.
- Dumbest Pick Possible: A reach at defensive tackle would be a disaster here. All the true 2-gap options available figure as late 3rd-rounders to early 5th-rounders. Dre Moore, Patrick Sims, and DeMario Pressley are 3-technique guys who aren't going to take pressure off the LB/S positions in the running game. If Denver can't get Ellis, they need to wait patiently until round 4.
- Most Likely Scenario: Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan. If Denver is going to address their needs at the safety position, it will have to happen early as the class is miserably thin (Reggie Nelson, anyone?).
- A Pair of Fourth Rounders: Here's my thoughts:
- Most Likely Scenario: I would be astonished if Denver didn't take at least one defensive tackle with this pick given the crop of talents available in this round. My stone-cold lock pick for this year's draft is Letroy Guion in round 4. If not a pair of defensive tackles, Denver could also use this pick to take a safety, wide reciever (Dexter Jackson?), cornerback (Antoine Caison?), or runningback (Michael Forte/Cory Boyd?)--preferably with return skills. Beau Bell is also a dark horse candidate to get picked here at MLB.
- I'd like to see... I would be elated to see Denver grab Athyba Rubin at the top of round 4. Most draft boards figure him to be a late 3rd rounder, so this probably doesn't happen. After that, I'd grab Letroy Guion based purely on upside and versatility. Red Bryant is another guy I like but he's a pure 2-gap defender like Rubin. Any combination of the three would ultimately make me very happy.
- Most Likely Scenario: I would be astonished if Denver didn't take at least one defensive tackle with this pick given the crop of talents available in this round. My stone-cold lock pick for this year's draft is Letroy Guion in round 4. If not a pair of defensive tackles, Denver could also use this pick to take a safety, wide reciever (Dexter Jackson?), cornerback (Antoine Caison?), or runningback (Michael Forte/Cory Boyd?)--preferably with return skills. Beau Bell is also a dark horse candidate to get picked here at MLB.
That's all I have for now! I'll discuss day 2 strategies after day 1 is finished! I'll be posting throughout the draft today and will give you a postmortem this evening. Enjoy the draft!
Friday, April 25, 2008
Saints Selling their Soul for Dorsey
A Pete Prisco article this morning has probably left Saints fans a bit shell shocked. In it, Prisco claims that New Orleans is so desperate to move up and grab Dorsey, that they are shopping left tackle Jammal Brown. A 2006 Pro Bowler, Jammal Brown is largely considered to be one of the premier tackles in the game today at only 27 years of age. Prisco notes that Jammal's production "dropped off" in 2007, a fact not supported by Drew Brees' sack rate of 1 per 40 pass attempts--far and away the best in the NFL. If Saints management makes this move, they better be prepared to declare marshal law in New Orleans.
What, you may be wondering, does all this have to do with Denver? As I noted last week, a New Orleans deal for Glenn Dorsey leaves Cincinnati as the only possible roadblock to a deal for Sedrick Ellis. If the Saints move up, don't be surprised to see Denver trade up with the Bengals, Ravens, or Patriots.
What, you may be wondering, does all this have to do with Denver? As I noted last week, a New Orleans deal for Glenn Dorsey leaves Cincinnati as the only possible roadblock to a deal for Sedrick Ellis. If the Saints move up, don't be surprised to see Denver trade up with the Bengals, Ravens, or Patriots.
Woderlic Wonderland
Several weeks ago Ryan Clady was exposed for being a less-than-brilliant athlete when someone leaked his Wonderlic score. Well, some more scores were leaked this morning. Here are some of the more interesting results:
The median score is usually around 27.
According to a handful of studies on the matter, there is very little correlation between Wonderlic score and NFL performance; however, the true efficacy of the test is very difficult to measure for a number of methodological reasons. Still, all other things being equal, most would prefer a smarter athlete.
- Some lousy performers:
Sedrick Ellis (15)
Andre Woodson (14)
Mario Manningham (6)
Brandon Albert (19)
James Hardy (14)
Matt Forte (16)
Philip Merling (13)
Rashard Mendenhall (23)
Jonathan Stewart (20) - Some good performers:
Frank Okam (39)
Trevor Laws (30)
John Carlson (40)
Jordy Nelson (28)
Jeremy Zuttah (26)
The median score is usually around 27.
According to a handful of studies on the matter, there is very little correlation between Wonderlic score and NFL performance; however, the true efficacy of the test is very difficult to measure for a number of methodological reasons. Still, all other things being equal, most would prefer a smarter athlete.
D-Rob a Panacea for the D-Line?
Seemingly so, if you read this morning's Denver Post:
A couple of thoughts:
"The question is not whether they can get a quality tackle, the question is whether they get one they feel is worthy of the No. 12 selection and pay scale," said Jeffrey Foster, president of NFL Scouting Inc., which serves 20 teams, including the Broncos. "There will be a tackle there that they like, but is he worth 12th-pick money? Those are questions that head coaches and salary cap guys and personnel guys start debating."
What the Broncos won't do is trade up for Sedrick Ellis or down for Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackles projected for the first round. The position is no longer a top priority after the Broncos acquired defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson from the New York Jets on Thursday in exchange for a 2009 conditional draft pick. "
A couple of thoughts:
- I absolutely agree with the first quote. I believe Denver likes several offensive line prospects available at #12 in this year's draft; however, I don't believe that Denver thinks they are all worth 12th pick money. In fact, Ryan Clady is the only guy I believe Denver is truly interested in drafting if they stay put in round 1. If some combination of Mendenhall, Rivers, McKelvin, Thomas, and Harvey are on the board when Denver picks, they will likely try and move down to take Williams, Otah, or Cherilius. If they don't receive a reasonable trade offer, don't be surprised to hear Mendenhall's, Rivers', or Harvey's name called at 12th overall. With the tackle class this deep, Denver isn't going to overpay for a player based on need.
- I disagree with the second part of this quote. Conservatively speaking, Denver views D-Rob as a stopgap at defensive tackle. Sure, he's a young guy with plenty of talent, but his knees are a ticking timebomb waiting to go off. What Robertson buys the Broncos is time. My guess is that Shanahan uses that time wisely. That is, he will add a lot of talent to the position this weekend. Only the rarest defensive tackle is capable of stepping in to a rotation and making an impact their first year. Thus, I don't buy that Denver isn't interested in trading up to acquire Sedrick Ellis. In fact, I think they'll have to deal with Cincinnati on the issue who may already be positioning themselves to negotiate a deal.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Broncos.com Confirms D-Rob Trade
Broncos.com has confirmed the Dwayne Robertson was acquired today for only a conditional 2009 draft pick. This is shocking news given that the asking price for Robertson was reportedly much higher. Should Robertson, who's seldom missed a start during his 4 year career, overcome concerns about the health of his knees, he'll be an absolute steal at this price. Reportedly, Denver surrenders the pick only if Robertson makes it through training camp healthy.
Katnik a Roster Casualty
Little-known former USC center Norm Katnik was released today in a roster move intended to make room for Dwayne Robertson. Denver's history of turning undrafted lineman into superstar performers made Katnik a possible successor to Tom Nalen when he retires. While this move is hardly newsworthy, additional shrinkage of the already thin Broncos offensive line depth chart adds credence to the belief that multiple offensive line prospects will be added on Saturday.
D-Rob a Bronco
ESPN reports that Jets DT Dwayne Robertson has been dealt to Denver for undisclosed draft picks. No details of the deal are available, however, Cincinnati reportedly withdrew an offer for a 4th and a 5th rounder, suggesting Denver's offer was less profitable for the Jets. Should Robertson stay healthy, he would provide much needed relief to Denver's depleted defensive line.UPDATE: ESPN's Bill Williamson has carefully chosen the phrase "pick or picks" in highlighting Denver's cost in this deal. The possibility that we have spend a single first-day pick still remains. Adam Schefter is now reporting that Denver will send a conditional 2009 pick as compensation. I need more than one hand to count the number of times Adam Schefter has reported something that turned out to be purely fabricated. I'm still not convinced that Denver won't part with a 2008 pick between rounds 4 and 6.
Also, Jeff Legwold just published a short article on this developing situation. After reading it I have a couple of notable insights:
- Word of this deal was apparently leaked by Oakland who recently inquired about his availability. This could mean that Denver didn't want this information released publicly until the draft. So long as the draft-pick compensation is undisclosed, Denver still retains some strategic leverage over third parties whose tactical decisions on draft day would be affected by this deal. In other words, don't expect to hear the full details of this deal until next Sunday.
- Shanahan recently intimated that a deal for Robertson was unlikely because he considered his knees to be a "big risk." Lets get the obvious out of the way here: this could easily be construed as a smoke screen. Given all the interest Robertson has received, that would've been prudent. Not so obvious are the details of the new contract Denver has negotiated with Robertson in consideration of this deal. The Broncos certainly aren't going to pay the $18 million he's owed over the next two seasons. More likely, Robertson will receive some kind of incentive-laden deal predicated largely on the number of games he suits up for.
- Most telling in this situation is the level of effort displayed by Cincinnati. Depending on how you look at it, there are a couple of ways you can interpret these moves:
- One might conjecture that Cincinnati had no intention of drafting Sedrick Ellis at 9th overall and were looking for a stop gap option. I tend not to subscribe to this believe.
- I'd argue that Cincinnati has tipped their hand that defensive tackle is this most pressing need on Saturday. Burning question: did D-Rob's failed physical deal Denver out of any shot at Sedrick Ellis on Saturday? Time will tell.
- This could also possibly be an elaborate ploy by Cincinnati to increase their credibility in any potential trade agreement with Denver on draft day. Cincinnati is 2 picks removed from Denver in nearly ever round and also has glaring needs at DT, so this would make sense.
- One might conjecture that Cincinnati had no intention of drafting Sedrick Ellis at 9th overall and were looking for a stop gap option. I tend not to subscribe to this believe.
The more I read about this deal the more I like it. Assuming such an incentive-laden contract is in place, Denver has secured a decent chance of having a veteran defensive tackle to anchor the currently young, depleted line. Perhaps Robertson's knees keep him sidelined through much of the 2008 season and he retires; Denver would lose a pick and a paltry sum of cap room. Perhaps Robertson is effective and healthy in 2008 before succumbing to health problems; Denver would give their 2008 draft prospects a year to develop behind a veteran defender. Or perhaps Robertson stays healthy long term and anchors Denver's defensive line; what a steal that would be! The third scenario is not out of the question. After all, Robertson is only 27 years old. There's a lot of room for optimism in this move.
Lombardi on Broncos Draft: 'Think Big'
Broncos castoff Michael Lombardi offered his draft insights for all of his former employers. In Denver's case, he had the following to say:
The Broncos certainly got off to a good start by signing 322-pound Montrae Holland away from New Orleans. In Harris and Kuper, they have a pair of 300-pound lineman who may have another 10 pounds left on their frame. Denver will undoubtedly target a pair of offensive lineman this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see two athletes of the 305-pound+ variety.
"It is critical in the NFL to have symmetry with your personnel. Right now, the Broncos don't have that fluid feel to their offense. They have a tremendous drop-back passer in Jay Cutler, but a smallish offensive line. The two pieces don't work well together.
Cutler is at his best when he can stand behind the center and throw the ball all over the field. He has very unique skills that can eventually lead a team to the Super Bowl, but he needs to have an offensive line that can highlight those skills. The Broncos need to acquire bigger bodies to help protect Cutler, not only to throw the ball down the field but also to control the line of scrimmage.
Cutler was uncanny last year in his ability to throw the ball with defensive lineman all around his legs. But Cutler took too many unnecessary hits and the Broncos needs to do a better job of securing him in the pocket."
The Broncos certainly got off to a good start by signing 322-pound Montrae Holland away from New Orleans. In Harris and Kuper, they have a pair of 300-pound lineman who may have another 10 pounds left on their frame. Denver will undoubtedly target a pair of offensive lineman this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see two athletes of the 305-pound+ variety.
Woody Paige on the Draft
The always-annoying Woody Paige told us what he would do at #12 in this year's draft in his weekly mailbag column:
As much as it hurts me to agree with Woody Paige, I love all the draft buzz about Denver taking Curtis Lofton at #42. Balmer I'm not so fond of, but I can live with him for the right price. 12th overall is not the right price.
I trade down and get a third-round choice (which the Broncos currently do not have). I choose Kentwan Balmer, the mammoth defensive lineman out of North Carolina, with the lower first-round pick and Curtis Lofton, linebacker from Oklahoma, with the second pick. They both would spot play and add depth where the Broncos need it. I'm waiting for Shanny's call for advice.
As much as it hurts me to agree with Woody Paige, I love all the draft buzz about Denver taking Curtis Lofton at #42. Balmer I'm not so fond of, but I can live with him for the right price. 12th overall is not the right price.
Intriguing Retrospective Piece on Elway
Pro Football Weekly republished a piece written about draft prospect John Elway prior to the 1983 draft. In it, they speculate that the Colts will trade out of the #1 pick to avoid drafting Elway, who doesn't want to play for them. The article then evaluates the prospect of Elway opting out of a career in the NFL to play baseball with the Yankees (apparently his mother wanted him to play baseball). Ultimately the Colts drafted Elway and traded him for a QB, OG-OT Chris Hinton, and a first rounder in 2004. The post-article commentary notes that the trade was a "steal" for Denver. In hindsight this is ostensibly the case; however, the article fails to mention that Chris Hinton played 13 years and went to 7 pro bowls. With that first round pick, the Colts drafted career backup OG Ron Solt rather than taking the top QB in the draft, Boomer Esaison. Had they made a better choice on draft day, they could have received better value for the trade.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Otah and Williams Slipping
According to Pro Football Weekly, Otah and Williams have slipped on many draft boards over the last several weeks. In fact, Gosder Cherilius has reported moved ahead of these two on some clubs draft sheets.
This doesn't surprise me. Williams and Otah are not 12th-pick athletes in my opinion. I'd be shocked to see Denver take either player barring a trade. Ellis, Mendenhall/Clady, Clady/Mendenhall, Keith Rivers, Derrick Harvey, and Jonathan Stewart is my best guess for who Denver is targeting at #12.
This doesn't surprise me. Williams and Otah are not 12th-pick athletes in my opinion. I'd be shocked to see Denver take either player barring a trade. Ellis, Mendenhall/Clady, Clady/Mendenhall, Keith Rivers, Derrick Harvey, and Jonathan Stewart is my best guess for who Denver is targeting at #12.
Foxworth Glad to be Back
Apparently D.J. Williams isn't the only guy happy to get back his natural position next year. In his latest blog post, recently resigned Dominique Foxworth has the following to say:
He's also got some insights on marriage, the draft, and the Nuggets. Its worth a read.
I'm a big supporter of Dominique Foxworth and hope he sticks around a lot longer than his one-year contract stipulates.
"I am also looking forward to focusing on corner, which should allow me to make a lot more plays and return to the very talented young corner that I was before I started bouncing around and filling in for the team at safety and various other positions. I am very excited about signing some new guys, which keep me at corner and I can rekindle my corner talent."
He's also got some insights on marriage, the draft, and the Nuggets. Its worth a read.
I'm a big supporter of Dominique Foxworth and hope he sticks around a lot longer than his one-year contract stipulates.
Saints' Movement could Improve Denver's Outlook
ESPN reports that New Orleans is aggressively seeking suitors to move up in this weekend's draft. According to the article, GM Mickey Loomis is evaluating the cost of moving into the top 5. This move is ostensibly an effort to draft Glenn Dorsey. Should this occur, Cincinnati would be the only obvious threat to drafting Sedrick Ellis at #12. Given that Cincinnati needs to upgrade at arguably every position on their team except for quarterback, it would not be unusual to see them pass on Ellis. Denver's situation at defensive tackle headed into 2008 is seemingly hopeless. Should he fall to us at #12, Ellis would be somewhat of a white knight in Denver.
UPDATE: Pro Football Weekly reports that the Rams are aggressively seeking suitors to trade out of the next pick in the NFL draft. Should New Orleans make a deal, Glenn Dorsey would almost certainly be their choice.
UPDATE: Pro Football Weekly reports that the Rams are aggressively seeking suitors to trade out of the next pick in the NFL draft. Should New Orleans make a deal, Glenn Dorsey would almost certainly be their choice.
Goodbye, Good Luck, and Good Riddance
Au Revoir, Jared! So sad to see you go! Farewell! (Don't let the door hit you in the ass)It's a done deal. See, our offensive line just got better and we haven't drafted a single player!
Bravo, Carl, Bravo! Encore! Encore!
Monday, April 21, 2008
TSN Final Mock Draft
The TSN final mock draft bucked the trend of analysts who've predicted that Denver will take whichever tackle prospect falls in their lap at #12. Echoing recent sentiment from this blogger, they predict Denver will grab RB Rashard Mendenhall with the 12th overall pick. The player Denver takes next month will probably be some intersection of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent. Taking all of these into consideration, these are the players, in order of probability, that I see Denver drafting at #12:
Rashard Mendenhall
Ryan Clady
Jonathan Stewart
Keith Rivers
Derrick Harvey
Chris Williams
Mendenhall is the surest combination of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent available by a long shot. Clady also fits all three, but in an incredibly deep draft class combined with Clady's strange personality and worrisome Wonderlic score lead me to believe that Denver would rather address this need in round 2 and beyond. Realistically, Clady and Rivers are likely long gone by the time Denver picks at #12. Assuming this is the case, I think Shanahan's ultimate decision will be between grabbing Mendenhall at #12 or trading down a couple of picks to take whichever back drops. Given the compensation, the latter strategy may ultimately be the most prudent course.
Rashard Mendenhall
Ryan Clady
Jonathan Stewart
Keith Rivers
Derrick Harvey
Chris Williams
Mendenhall is the surest combination of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent available by a long shot. Clady also fits all three, but in an incredibly deep draft class combined with Clady's strange personality and worrisome Wonderlic score lead me to believe that Denver would rather address this need in round 2 and beyond. Realistically, Clady and Rivers are likely long gone by the time Denver picks at #12. Assuming this is the case, I think Shanahan's ultimate decision will be between grabbing Mendenhall at #12 or trading down a couple of picks to take whichever back drops. Given the compensation, the latter strategy may ultimately be the most prudent course.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Is any RB worthy of a first round pick?
According to a recent article at the NFL Stats blog, they're worth their weight in gold. According to the article, a running back's career yards per carry and likelihood of attending a pro bowl are both strongly correlated with their draft order. Many have argued that Shanahan's selection of undrafted and late-round running backs are evidence that he has a penchant for finding late round steals. The author of this article notes an interesting point:
Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?
In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.
"For any one RB's season, offensive line ability has a tremendous influence on his stats. But over 490 careers and over 24 years of data, the abilities of offensive lines will average itself out to a great degree, leaving career YPC a reliable estimate of true RB performance when grouped by round or draft order."
Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?
In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.
'Best-Value' Draft Picks: Workhorse Back Edition
This is the latest addition to my 'best-value' series which began with this article on the 2008 defensive tackle class. Recall, when we talk about 'best-value,' we are referring to a players quality and price. Thus, Jonathan Stewart might be the highest quality running back on your board, but as an early 1st-round pick, his price is also among the highest in the draft.
In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:
Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:
This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:
Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.
Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:
Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.
It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.
So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.
Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:
#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.
#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.
#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.
#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.
#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:
An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.
Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.
Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.
In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:
- 23% of Denver's running plays were for 10+ yards (a large amount).
- Denver was ranked 32nd in the NFL in Power Success Percentage, the percentage of 2nd/3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 plays that resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
- Denver was 20th in the league in Stuffed Percentage, the percentage of running plays which resulted in zero yardage or negative yards.
- Selvin Young ranked 40th and Travis Henry ranked 27th in Success Percentage, a statistic which tabulates "success" or "fail" for each run dependent on the down and distance.
Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:
- The loss of Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, and Henry (for most of the year) dealt a painful blow to our rushing attack in 2007. Denver will likely benefit from the return of at least half this cast (assuming a minimum of either Hamilton or Henry make it back).
- Denver needs to inject some youth into the offensive line in this year's draft. Right tackle and guard are the principle areas of need.
- Denver could use a third down back with better pass-blocking and route-running ability than Selvin Young, although, Selvin was serviceable in the role given his 10+ yard run tally.
- Denver needs a workhorse back to fix its power running game. With Lepsis, Henry, Hamilton, and Nalen healthy after 4 weeks, Henry had zero touchdowns to show for his league-leading yardage. Denver's red zone touchdown percentage was among the worst its had in years, and the running game is a huge reason for this; more on this in a second.
This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:
Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.
Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:
| PLAYER: | WEIGHT: |
| Cad. Williams | 217 |
| Chester Taylor | 213 |
| Clinton Portis | 223 |
| Corey Dillon | 225 |
| Curtis Martin | 210 |
| Domanick Davis | 221 |
| Edgerrin James | 220 |
| Frank Gore | 223 |
| Jamal Lewis | 245 |
| L. Tomlinson | 221 |
| Larry Johnson | 230 |
| LenDale White | 235 |
| Reuben Droughns | 220 |
| Rudi Johnson | 214 |
| Shaun Alexander | 228 |
| Steven Jackson | 232 |
| Thomas Jones | 215 |
| Tiki Barber | 205 |
| Willie Parker | 209 |
| Willis McGahee | 232 |
Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.
It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.
So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.
Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:
#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.
#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.
#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.
#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.
#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:
An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.
Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.
Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.
Rivers Top Gun in West???
Someone please tell me that this article by Denver Post writer Jim Armstrong is just some belated April fools joke. What in the world is this guy talking about?
Hmm...let's take a look at some highlights from the 2007 and 2008 pro bowl rosters:
Ladanian Tomlinson (hall of famer) (both years)
Antonio Gates (hall of famer) (both years)
Lorenzo Neal (hall of famer) (both years)
Marcus McNeil OT (both years)
Kris Dielhman OG (2008)
Nick Hardwick C (both years)
Jamal Williams DT (both years)
Shawn Merriman OLB (both years)
Antonio Cromartie CB (2008)
Kassim Osgood ST (both years)
Nate Kaeding K (2007)
David Binn LS (2007)
That's 12 pro bowlers and three hall of famers! And Philip Rivers is top gun, why, because he plays for these guys?
Lets take a look at another set of statistics:
Rivers is the better QB? Really? Last I checked, Cutler didn't hold a clipboard for Drew Brees for 2 years either.
There are few things more annoying than seeing this kind of jabberwocky spewed from the pen of a Denver Broncos beat writer. At least if it were an AP article the Denver Post could feign ignorance.
Of course, no statistic measures class. In that category, Philip Rivers is dead last in the NFL:
Great story Denver Post! Some of you may recall last Saturday I had similar sentiments for "Chief Asshole" Philip Rivers. The video at this link is exactly the same. It's not like there is a paucity of Rivers hate videos on the internet, but after his deplorable behavior week 5, what could possibly make you angrier?
"Frankly, given the state of the AFC West these days, Rivers has every right to chirp.
When it comes to quarterbacks, Rivers is the man for all seasons in the West. He's the best quarterback in the division and the most experienced. He has won 25-of-32 starts and twice taken the Chargers to the playoffs.
The other starting quarterbacks in the West? For one thing, they have lots of potential. For another . . . um, did we mention they have lots of potential?"
Hmm...let's take a look at some highlights from the 2007 and 2008 pro bowl rosters:
Ladanian Tomlinson (hall of famer) (both years)
Antonio Gates (hall of famer) (both years)
Lorenzo Neal (hall of famer) (both years)
Marcus McNeil OT (both years)
Kris Dielhman OG (2008)
Nick Hardwick C (both years)
Jamal Williams DT (both years)
Shawn Merriman OLB (both years)
Antonio Cromartie CB (2008)
Kassim Osgood ST (both years)
Nate Kaeding K (2007)
David Binn LS (2007)
That's 12 pro bowlers and three hall of famers! And Philip Rivers is top gun, why, because he plays for these guys?
Lets take a look at another set of statistics:
| Jay Cutler: | Philip Rivers |
| QB Rating: 88.1 | QB Rating: 82.4 |
| YPA: 7.5 | YPA: 6.9 |
| Comp %: 63.6 | Comp %: 60.2 |
| Total TD: 21 | Total TD: 22 |
| Total TO's: 18 | Total TO's: 21 |
| Total Yd's: 3702 | Total Yd's: 3185 |
Rivers is the better QB? Really? Last I checked, Cutler didn't hold a clipboard for Drew Brees for 2 years either.
There are few things more annoying than seeing this kind of jabberwocky spewed from the pen of a Denver Broncos beat writer. At least if it were an AP article the Denver Post could feign ignorance.
Of course, no statistic measures class. In that category, Philip Rivers is dead last in the NFL:
Great story Denver Post! Some of you may recall last Saturday I had similar sentiments for "Chief Asshole" Philip Rivers. The video at this link is exactly the same. It's not like there is a paucity of Rivers hate videos on the internet, but after his deplorable behavior week 5, what could possibly make you angrier?
Robertson Reportedly Costs a 2nd Rounder
TSN's AFC West Draft Preview reports that Dwayne Robertson's price tag is the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick. Earlier this month, several news sources suggested that Robertson would cost two of Denver's 4th through 6th round picks. Since then, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have entered the market for Robertson, driving his price up. This is an astonishingly-high price to pay for a perennial underachiever with a bone-on-bone knee condition. If Robertson's reported cost is factually correct, I would be shocked (and enraged) if Denver made this deal.
The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.
The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.
Friday, April 18, 2008
The Bridge between Bon Jovi and Bow Wow
According to the Denver Post, that bridge would be Jeremy Bates, the 28-year-old Quarterbacks Coach for the Denver Broncos who will have offensive coordinator responsibilities in 2008. Bates joins a rapidly proliferating group of young, talented NFL coaches receiving unprecedented responsibilities. Bates is 4-years younger than Texans offensive coordinator and Shanahan's son, Kyle Shanahan. 32-year-old Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the record-shattering New England Patriots last season.
Last year, Lane Kiffin became the youngest Head Coach in NFL history at the age of 31 years, 8 months. It comes as little surprise that his boss, Al Davis, would make such a bold move given that Davis himself is among the youngest coaches ever; in 1963 Davis became the Raiders head coach at 33 years, 6 months. Later, Davis hired another young head coach named John Madden, who was 32 years, 10 months old. His next young hire was a brilliant offensive mind named Mike Shanahan, who at age 35 and 1/2 coached the Raiders for a year before bolting to the division-rival Broncos. Still later, Davis hired John Gruden at 34 years, 10 months, who built a Super Bowl ready team before bolting to Tampa Bay. Gruden defeated his former employer in the Super Bowl the following season.
For once, maybe Al Davis is on to something here! A scan of the list of the youngest head coaches in NFL history reveals that some of the leagues winningest coaches began their careers at unusually young ages. The list includes NFL greats Don Schula and Bill Cowher. It also includes head coaching newcomers Mike Tomlin and Eric Mangini.
Among the most difficult challenges for NFL head coaches is getting through to their players. The age difference between a coach in his 50's or 60's and a twenty-something group of athletes can lead to pronounced communication divides. As the Denver Post points out, these young coaches can bridge the gap. In Denver's case, the movement of so young an offensive mind through the ranks is certainly intriguing. When Rick Dennison finally makes the jump to NFL head coach or decides to hang 'em up for good, this young prodigy could be the future architect of Denver's offense.
Last year, Lane Kiffin became the youngest Head Coach in NFL history at the age of 31 years, 8 months. It comes as little surprise that his boss, Al Davis, would make such a bold move given that Davis himself is among the youngest coaches ever; in 1963 Davis became the Raiders head coach at 33 years, 6 months. Later, Davis hired another young head coach named John Madden, who was 32 years, 10 months old. His next young hire was a brilliant offensive mind named Mike Shanahan, who at age 35 and 1/2 coached the Raiders for a year before bolting to the division-rival Broncos. Still later, Davis hired John Gruden at 34 years, 10 months, who built a Super Bowl ready team before bolting to Tampa Bay. Gruden defeated his former employer in the Super Bowl the following season.
For once, maybe Al Davis is on to something here! A scan of the list of the youngest head coaches in NFL history reveals that some of the leagues winningest coaches began their careers at unusually young ages. The list includes NFL greats Don Schula and Bill Cowher. It also includes head coaching newcomers Mike Tomlin and Eric Mangini.
Among the most difficult challenges for NFL head coaches is getting through to their players. The age difference between a coach in his 50's or 60's and a twenty-something group of athletes can lead to pronounced communication divides. As the Denver Post points out, these young coaches can bridge the gap. In Denver's case, the movement of so young an offensive mind through the ranks is certainly intriguing. When Rick Dennison finally makes the jump to NFL head coach or decides to hang 'em up for good, this young prodigy could be the future architect of Denver's offense.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Mayo Skyrocketing up Draft Boards
Pro Football Weekly reports that Tennessee linebacker Jerod Mayo is skyrocketing up many teams draft boards. Some have even intimated that they feel Mayo has overtaken Rivers as the top linebacker in the draft. While there's little debate that Mayo possesses superior athleticism, Rivers is easily the more polished of the two.
Many have conjectured that Denver will draft Mayo with their first overall pick in this year's draft, including ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. Mayo's current skillset makes him a better fit at WLB than at our position of need, MLB; however, many feel he can be an effective MLB at the next level, given time. With free agent acquisition Niko Koutivides on the roster, Denver arguably has that. What's more, Mayo is an excellent zone defender, meaning he could conceivably see some playing time on special teams and in Nickel packages while he acclimates to the defense. Still, that's an awfully small role for a player that would garner first round money. I don't see this pick happening, but seeing as Mayo has solidified himself as a first round pick, I thought it was worth mentioning.
Another possible suitor for Jerod Mayo is the Detroit Lions, who'd love to find a talent to compliment Erie Sims. Should Mayo continue his climb, there may be demand to move ahead of Detroit in the draft. Chicago and Denver are the most likely suitors for such a team. When you add Mayo to the crowded list of talent that will undoubtedly be available with the 12th overall pick, Denver figures to have an easy time moving down and adding an extra first day pick.
Many have conjectured that Denver will draft Mayo with their first overall pick in this year's draft, including ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. Mayo's current skillset makes him a better fit at WLB than at our position of need, MLB; however, many feel he can be an effective MLB at the next level, given time. With free agent acquisition Niko Koutivides on the roster, Denver arguably has that. What's more, Mayo is an excellent zone defender, meaning he could conceivably see some playing time on special teams and in Nickel packages while he acclimates to the defense. Still, that's an awfully small role for a player that would garner first round money. I don't see this pick happening, but seeing as Mayo has solidified himself as a first round pick, I thought it was worth mentioning.
Another possible suitor for Jerod Mayo is the Detroit Lions, who'd love to find a talent to compliment Erie Sims. Should Mayo continue his climb, there may be demand to move ahead of Detroit in the draft. Chicago and Denver are the most likely suitors for such a team. When you add Mayo to the crowded list of talent that will undoubtedly be available with the 12th overall pick, Denver figures to have an easy time moving down and adding an extra first day pick.
A Big 'Thank You' to Carl Peterson
It looks like Carl Peterson is dumb enough to trade superstar defensive end Jared Allen, or so says Allen. After missing 2 games last year to a DUI suspension, Allen recorded 15.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in 14 games. These numbers may seem heroic to some of you, but they are actually godly; in case you haven't noticed the Chiefs defense sucks.Reportedly, this move is being made to "stockpile draftpicks" and embrace the Chiefs "rebuilding mode." Truthfully, this move is being made because (a) the Chiefs have no money to sign Allen right now, (b) Allen is an unrestricted free agent next year, and (c) Allen also thinks the Chiefs defense sucks and he'd rather play elsewhere. I'm not sure what a team in "rebuilding mode" is looking for if not a player like Allen. At 26-years-old, Allen is arguably the best player in the NFL at arguably the toughest position to find great players.
In two meetings last year, Allen terrorized our ailing offensive line. I want to extend a special "thanks" to Carl Peterson for being such an incompetent fool. This buds for you, Carl!
Jackson Signs a Palatable Deal
The Rocky Mountain News reports that Darrell Jackson signed a $1.5 million contract with escalators that could raise his salary to $2 million. The deal is for one year. Given that Jackson is one year removed from being among the league's elite wide receivers, this is a deep discount. Let's hope that Jackson's woes in San Francisco were a function of Alex Smith.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Is Jared Allen Leaving Kansas City?
In their weekly draft Q&A, Pro Football Weekly had the following to say in response to speculation that Kansas City will move down in the draft:
Why would you ever trade a guy like Allen? He may be the best defensive end the franchise ever sees. I doubt they could grab another talent like him in their next 100 tries. Let's hope the rumors are true. Allen gave our battered line fits last year. Leave it to Herm to burn Vermeil's legacy to ashes.
As an aside, the article also indicates that Denver is strongly interested in moving down in the draft. He lists Detroit and Philadelphia as possible trade suitors. Detroit is not surprising but Philly was a little unexpected. With all the demand for offensive tackles there could be multiple attempts to leapfrog to #11 or #12. Denver will likely have their pick of trade suitors.
"From what I'm told, there has been ongoing discussion in Kansas City since the start of free agency about shipping franchised DE Jared Allen to a number of suitors, including Minnesota, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, in exchange for draft picks. However, if the deal were to occur, it would seem the Chiefs would want the comfort of being able to replace him in the draft. Depending on whether the right defensive end is available at the No. 5 position, a move may not be made until Draft Day. If it does happen, the Chiefs would wind up with an additional first-round pick to address their most pressing need, on the offensive line."
Why would you ever trade a guy like Allen? He may be the best defensive end the franchise ever sees. I doubt they could grab another talent like him in their next 100 tries. Let's hope the rumors are true. Allen gave our battered line fits last year. Leave it to Herm to burn Vermeil's legacy to ashes.
As an aside, the article also indicates that Denver is strongly interested in moving down in the draft. He lists Detroit and Philadelphia as possible trade suitors. Detroit is not surprising but Philly was a little unexpected. With all the demand for offensive tackles there could be multiple attempts to leapfrog to #11 or #12. Denver will likely have their pick of trade suitors.
Darrell Jackson Inked to One-Year Deal
The Rocky Mountain News reports a one-year deal with Darrell Jackson is imminent assuming he passes his physical. The 29-year-old receiver has reached the 1000-yard receiving mark 3 times in his career, has surpassed the 60-reception mark 5 times, and has scored 50 touchdowns in an 8-year career. Jackson was lost to the black hole in San Francisco in 2007 before being cut earlier this spring. He's had some durability issues, but a healthy D-Jack is among the premier wide receivers in the NFL today. The terms of his deal have not yet been disclosed.
Cherilus, Mendenhall Visit Broncos
According to the Denver Post, Gosder Cherilus and Rashard Mendenhall are scheduled to visit the Broncos sometime this week. I tend not to put too much weight into these publicized visits, as teams like to put up a smokescreen before draft day; however, these two players make a lot of sense for Denver.
Halfback is arguably Denver's biggest need after defensive tackle in 2008. In this year's draft, Mendenhall--a pure one-cut back--is arguably the best available fit for Denver's scheme.
Cherilus is a powerful, mauling tackle who excels as a run blocker. He's mobile and has a huge wingspan. At 6'6", Cherilus has displayed difficulty anchoring against the pass rush. Largely for this reason, many think he'll be a career right tackle. This is a good fit for Denver, who already has adequate depth on the left side with incumbent Chris Kuper and last year's 3rd round pick Ryan Harris.
Halfback is arguably Denver's biggest need after defensive tackle in 2008. In this year's draft, Mendenhall--a pure one-cut back--is arguably the best available fit for Denver's scheme.
Cherilus is a powerful, mauling tackle who excels as a run blocker. He's mobile and has a huge wingspan. At 6'6", Cherilus has displayed difficulty anchoring against the pass rush. Largely for this reason, many think he'll be a career right tackle. This is a good fit for Denver, who already has adequate depth on the left side with incumbent Chris Kuper and last year's 3rd round pick Ryan Harris.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Latest Draft Stock Watch
Pro Football Weekly just released their latest draft value chart. Please note that these draft values are based on their assessment of where a player will be drafted and not necessarily a hierarchy of the best talents. In order of Denver's principle needs in this year's draft, here are some thoughts:
That sums up our principle needs. Check out the article for a full breakdown!
- Defensive Tackle: Athyba Rubin has solidified himself as a late 3rd-rounder, meaning Denver would likely have to put together a trade to move up to select him. Letroy Guion, a player I've tagged "most likely to be drafted by Denver" has moved to the top ten picks in round 4, where Denver happens to have a draft pick.
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart has skyrocketed into the top 10 picks. Should he be there at 12, I would be shocked if Denver passed on him. Not only is he a good fit for our scheme, he's got great size, speed, and would fill an instant need in the return game. Felix Jones has solidly moved himself into the first round. Jones is a great pass blocker, a fantastic kick returner, he has soft hands, and he's got world-class speed. He lacks the size to be an every-down back in the NFL, but as a 3rd-down back, receiver, and kick return specialist, he's got tremendous value. Rashard Mendenhall still sits right around #12; he's a pure zone rusher and has the size to be an every-down running back. He's another possibility.
- Offensive Tackle: Clady and Williams have both dropped considerably. Clady--once considered a top eight pick--has slipped a bit and may be available when Denver selects 12th. To justify Albert, Otah, or Williams, Denver would likely want to move down a few picks. Clady is arguably the best-fit tackle for Denver's zone blocking scheme. Should he fall to us at 12, I think they'd strongly consider selecting him despite our youth at the position.
- Wide Receiver: Devin Thomas has solidified himself as the top wide receiver available. He could go as early as #11. Limas Sweed maintains pole position over Desean Jackson around #20. Jackson should be around much longer. Malcolm Kelly has plunged to the middle of the 2nd round after his outburst last week and his marajuana admissions. Earl Bennett has plunged to the bottom of the 3rd round. If he slips into round 4, I think he's a good value; however, I still think he's a little high in round 3.
- Strong Safety: There are zero safeties projecting into the first round this year. If Denver covets Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan, both should be there with our second pick. This is not a deep safety class so the drop off is precipitous.
- Inside Linebacker: Jerrod Mayo has leapfrogged all prospects in this category; although, he probably doesn't translate to MLB in the NFL. He's more of a WLB type given his size and skill set. Curtis Lofton has moved himself firmly ahead of Dan Conner, but neither figures to be a first round pick. There has been some speculation that San Francisco will grab Lofton with their top pick, but that speculation appears to be waning. Lofton looks like he could slip to us in round 2 and would receive my nod for the best prospect available. I hope we draft him. Jonathan Goff is astonishingly listed at the bottom of round 6. I'd be happy if Denver spent any second-day pick on him.
That sums up our principle needs. Check out the article for a full breakdown!
Broncos 2008 Schedule Released
Here it is:
@ Oakland (MNF)
Vs. San Diego
Vs. New Orleans
@ Kansas City
Vs. Tampa Bay
Vs. Jacksonville
@ New England (MNF)
BYE
Vs. Miami
@ Cleveland (TNF)
@ Atlanta
Vs. Oakland
@ New York Jets
Vs. Kansas City
@ Carolina
Vs. Buffalo
@ San Diego
I have a couple of comments:
Overall, I think we made out pretty well. With our hardest games at home, I expect Denver to finish at least .500 next season; however, don't be surprised if we start 3-6. After the Cleveland game, things get pretty easy.
@ Oakland (MNF)
Vs. San Diego
Vs. New Orleans
@ Kansas City
Vs. Tampa Bay
Vs. Jacksonville
@ New England (MNF)
BYE
Vs. Miami
@ Cleveland (TNF)
@ Atlanta
Vs. Oakland
@ New York Jets
Vs. Kansas City
@ Carolina
Vs. Buffalo
@ San Diego
I have a couple of comments:
- Our schedule is not that tough. Our opponents average 7.1 wins last year. Controlling for our anemic division, our opponents average 7.6 wins. Not bad.
- The first seven games leading up to our week 8 bye are brutal. Over the stretch, Denver plays teams who averaged 8.85 wins. Kansas City, New Orleans, and Oakland are the only non-playoff teams on the schedule; however, the games against Oakland and Kansas City are both on the road and New Orleans is arguably the team to beat in the NFC this year.
- Like in 2004, we play all three Florida teams this year; however, this time all three games are at home and none occur in September. Shanahan has played Florida teams poorly in his career, particularly when on the road. Arguably, this is because weather conditions make cramping a huge game-day issue. Quentin Griffins fumble on a -1 yard carry to setup a game-winning field goal didn't help in 2004. Olindo Mare's career-best 55-yard game winner didn't help much later that same season.
- Only 3 away games are against teams that had winning records last year: San Diego, New England, and Cleveland. Including these three, our away opponents averaged 7.5 wins. Four of these teams were 4-12.
Overall, I think we made out pretty well. With our hardest games at home, I expect Denver to finish at least .500 next season; however, don't be surprised if we start 3-6. After the Cleveland game, things get pretty easy.
Sammy Parker Signs Minimum Deal
The Denver Post reports that Sammy Parker signed a 1-year deal for the league minimum plus a $40k signing bonus. It appears that Denver thinks highly enough of Parker to give him a shot to make the team this spring. If he fails to make the cut, the cap loss is nominal. In the event that Parker blossoms into a quality player, he comes at a great price.
Something tells me D-jacks will cost a pretty-penny more...
Something tells me D-jacks will cost a pretty-penny more...
Signalizing Selvin Young's Success
Mile High Report has a fantastic breakdown of rushing metrics for Broncos RB Selvin Young. In it, author super7 argues that Selvin Young boasted the leagues 4th best yards per touch (YPT) in the NFL last season. Both his logic and his methodology are agreeable; I think this is a meaningful statistic. I am, however, going to play devil's advocate in this article, arguing instead that Selvin Young is not only unfit to be an every-down starter, but also that he isn't a long-term solution as a third-down back.
What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.
A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.
Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.
Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:
Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.
As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.
If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.
Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.
What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.
A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.
Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
- Power Success: This statistic is the percentage of 3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 runs which resulted in a first down or touchdown. Ranked 32nd, Denver was the absolute worst team in the league in this category. In short, our power running game is nonexistent. Historically speaking, Denver's power success percentage has been dominant--typically in the 60's.
- Stuffed: This is the percentage of run plays which resulted in zero gain or a loss of yards. Denver was average in this category and ranked an unimpressive 20th in the league. Again, this is indicative of our lousy power running game. In the 2000's, Denver ranked no less than 5th in this category until last year, when we dropped to 15th. We haven't recovered.
- 10+ Yard Plays: This is the number of plays that go for 10+ yards. Last season, 23% of Denver's rushing plays were of this variety. This is really the statistic that tells the story of Selvin Young. In 15 games last season, he had 8 runs for 10+ yards (7 of them for 20+) and 6 receptions for 10+ yards. These 14 plays accounted for exactly 1/3rd of Selvin Young's total scrimmage yards last season.
Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.
Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
- Defensive Value-Over-Average (DVOA): Adjusting for opponent run defense, this metric measures how much better this running back performed than average. Because a player can be worse than average, this value can be negative. In this category, Selvin Young is ranked 24th and is 11.2% better than average. Not surprising (likely for reasons discussed earlier), a host of other third down backs like Kenny Watson, Marion Barber, and Laurence Maroney litter the top of this list.
- Success Rate: For every run, a player either succeeds or he doesn't. The definition of success is different for each down and distance. Selvin Young is a paltry 40th ranked in this category with 43% success. Travis Henry is ranked 27th.
Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:
"A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage."
Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.
As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.
If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.
Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Rising and Falling Draft Stock
The Sporting News just launched an update on rising and falling draft prospects. Among the risers was Michigan State WR Devin Thomas and Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both players are likely available at #12 and both positions are highly coveted in this year's draft. This is probably a good situation for Denver.
Another player on the move is Arizona State Center Mike Pollack. Pollack is probably the top center available in this year's draft. The biggest knock on him is lack of elite strength; however, at 300 lbs, his 5.01 40-time is solid. Assuming he's still around in round 4, he's a strong draft candidate for Denver, who's blocking style relies more on speed, finesse, and technique than brute strength.
Another player on the move is Arizona State Center Mike Pollack. Pollack is probably the top center available in this year's draft. The biggest knock on him is lack of elite strength; however, at 300 lbs, his 5.01 40-time is solid. Assuming he's still around in round 4, he's a strong draft candidate for Denver, who's blocking style relies more on speed, finesse, and technique than brute strength.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
