Rocky Mountain Fever

More Broncos Coverage Soon!

2008-04-29T13:15:00.004-04:00

I have several deadlines converging on me all at once right now. As a result, I've not given Rocky Mountain Fever the attention it deserves. I've got plenty to say and plan to get caught up later this week. Be sure to check back soon or subscribe to the RSS feed if you haven't already.

Thanks!

Meet the Revamped Broncos O-Line

2008-04-27T12:33:00.002-04:00

LT: Ryan Clady
LG: Chris Kuper
C: Kory Lichtensteiger
RG: Montrae Holland
RT: Ryan Harris

Backup: Isaac Snell, G; Erik Pears, T

There's a lot to be excited about from this group. I'm looking forward to watching this unit develop. 2009 could be a big year in the mile high city!

Draft Analysis: Day 2

2008-04-27T12:18:00.012-04:00

#108: Kory Lichtensteiger, C: What's with all these lineman from mid-majors? Lichtensteiger probably lasts until our next pick and maybe even until round 5; however, Denver clearly coveted Kory enough to draft him a little early. Some may say this is a reach, but I am enormously happy with this selection. There's a lot to like this kid. Lichtensteiger is an incredibly likable guy with a blue-collar work ethic. He is a ferocious competitor on the field. He's among the more polished centers available in this years draft with respect to technique. He also possesses fantastic lower-body strength and is an enormously effective drive blocker in the running game.

The knock on Lichtensteiger is his poor track record defending 3-technique tackles in pass protection. This is likely the reason he made the switch from guard to center at Bowling Green. He also is a little light to play center in the NFL; however, at 298 lbs, he's already bigger than Nalen. Denver likes lineman who lack prototypical size and Lichtensteiger should therefore fit right in. There is a lot of silly discussion about Lichtensteiger's durability. He played an entire season with a torn labrum and waited until the off season to have corrective surgery. Does that sound like a guy who's not durable?

I'm a little concerned that Denver hasn't addressed the defensive tackle or middle linebacker positions as of yet. Otherwise, great pick. Grade: A

#119: Jack Williams, CB: Williams is the second MAC player Denver has drafted in a row. Frankly I'm shocked by this pick as I think Denver has a shot to fill some big needs with a player like Beau Bell or Letroy Guion, both of whom are still on the board. Williams is only 5'9" tall but has adequate bulk (185 lbs). He has excellent zone coverage skills and is a fantastic tackler. He forced six fumbles last season for Kent State to match his 10 interceptions. Williams is a hard hitting player with fantastic speed and quickness. He's also an experienced kick and punt returner.

The knock on Williams is that his size is a red zone liability. He'll have trouble matching up against bigger receivers. He's rough around the edges technically and will struggle in man-to-man and underneath coverage. He's played with some nagging injuries and missed a game or two as a result. Durability is therefore a concern but shouldn't be an overriding factor in my opinion.

With Paymah failing to reach his potential and Foxworth likely on his way out of town, Williams is a need in this year's or next year's draft. He's a physical kid who'll be a good option in nickel packages. There's also a good chance that Denver converts Williams to free safety. He's got the range to cover a lot of ground, reads the quarterback well, and delivers punishing hits. It'll be interesting to see where he fits. I'm a little surprised by this selection given our glaring needs, but overall think Williams is a solid prospect as a nickel back or free safety. Grade: B

#139: Ryan Torain, RB: Torain's pick is undoubtedly an attempt to remedy Denver's paltry power success percentage and red zone touchdown percentage from last season. Realistically, Torain is probably a fullback or short-yardage back type rather than an every-down starter. He's a north-south type runner with the strength to move the pile. He doesn't have great elusiveness or breakaway speed, so don't expect to see him much outside of the red zone. While RB's with Torain's size are few and far between in this year's draft, there are a handful of guys I like better with this pick including Cory Boyd and Jalen Parmele. But hey, the Broncos are supposed to be the best in the business at this late-round runningback thing, right? Grade: C-

#148: Carlton Powell, DT: Given that Guion, Hayden, Rubin, and Okam are all on the board, this pick astonishes me. Powell is an undersized 2-gap defender without the speed to consistently pressure the quarterback. His lateral mobility is poor and he's a terrible tackler. Defensive tackle was Denver's biggest need heading into today's draft. With the plethora of talent still available at this pick, the Broncos could have made a big splash in the 5th round. I'm terribly disappointed in this pick. Grade: D-

#183: Spencer Larsen, ILB: We may never know whether or not Nick Hayden would've adorned a Broncos jersey had he survived two more picks. Rather than add desperately needed depth to the defensive line interior, Denver went with another need at inside linebacker. Larsen, who turns 24 this year, has the size to play the position but in almost every other way he's a project. Still, Larsen gives Denver a project ILB for a low price. He should contribute on special teams immediately. This isn't the splash at a needed position that Beau Bell or Jonathan Goff would have made, but its definitely a guy who'll have a shot to make the roster. Grade: C

#219: Joshua Barrett, S: Barrett is an absolute steal at this pick. He is a high-character player who was the leader of the Sun Devils defense in 2007. He's everything you want in a safety: great ball skills, world class speed, great size, great blitzing ability, etc. Barrett likely slipped because he red shirted his freshman year with an injury and played through a pectoral injury in 2007. At the end of last year, he missed two games with a knee sprain. Heading into the draft, Barrett projected as high as a 3rd-round pick. Denver is fortunate to grab a great player so late in the game. Grade: A+

#226: Peyton Hillis, FB: Hillis is a big kid with a lot of promise. He has the power to move the pile, great hands, and pretty good speed (4.66 40-time) for a guy his size. After playing in a tough conference, he's a proven talent. What's more, Hillis is an exceptional pass blocker. The knock on Hillis is that he's not a prototypical lead-blocking fullback. He struggles as a lead blocker in the running game. These aren't big concerns for Denver, however, because the Broncos run more of a one-back offense. Last season fullbacks were primarily used in split back formations to max protect Jay Cutler in the shotgun (a strange formation) and in the red zone. My guess is that Hillis adds an additional short-yardage back with the potential to develop into a long-term solution at fullback. Hillis also has the straight-line speed to be effective on special teams. Great pick. Grade: A

A Royal Shock

2008-04-26T22:48:00.004-04:00

Let me preface this by saying that I am ecstatic about Denver's 12th overall pick. I have been an opponent of the "Denver must draft an offensive lineman in the first round" theory from day one. This is primarily because I don't want Denver to go the route of Jacksonville or Baltimore and reach for a player at a needed position. Clady is so athletic and such a distinctive fit for our system that this pick almost seems predestined. Broncos fans should be excited about Clady's potential and regardless of his Wonderlic score and his strange personality get behind him as the future at left tackle.

Eddie Royal at #42, however, was a total shock and largely disappointing. There is a lot about this kid to find intriguing. He's small, but bulky. He's got world class speed. He's a tough kid that's not afraid to run across the middle of the field. He's a good blocker--something Shanahan undoubtedly liked. He fills an immediate need on special teams in the return game. He has the speed to stretch the field and the hands to make the big catch. He's seemingly everything that Denver needs in a receiver to overcome the inadequacies of last year's 7-9 team.

So what's not to like? Well, you've come to the right place. I've grown up in a Hokie family my whole life and don't miss too many Hokie's games. Consequently, I've seen the veritable library of Eddie Royal footage. I know precisely what Denver's getting. Here are my two big concerns:

Durability. I know this has been parroted in the media and I'm not at all concerned about his toe injury or his concussion. Its these two words that terrify me: compartment syndrome. This is a vascular condition that causes your ankles to swell abnormally when your heart rate increases. Its very painful and often chronic. Correcting this condition is extremely difficult and complete correction is virtually impossible. This is based on an explanation offered by a close friend who was discharged from the military because of the same condition. I sure hope Denver has done their homework on this one.
Beamer Ball. VA Tech is the best in the business at special teams execution. They consistently have an explosive kick return game and punt blocking unit. Some of you may remember DeAngelo Hall was among the nations best kick returners for the Hokies before he entered the league. Understand, a lot of this has to do with the scheme and the coach. Royal has some good experience in a return specialist role, but being a serviceable kick returner for the Hokies doesn't insinuate that you're the next Devin Hester.
Playing Speed. Eddie Royal showed us world class speed at the combine. If you watch him on film, however, he doesn't play as fast as that time would indicate. In fact, Eddie Royal is not a very 'quick' player on the field. Royal's straight-line speed is every bit as fast as his 4.39 40-time indicates, but he doesn't play with elite quickness when making plays.

For all these reasons, I am little weary about this pick. I sure hope Royal proves me wrong! For #42 value, I think I'd be more comfortable with Dexter or DeSean Jackson. Both players are probably purely kick return specialists, but at least you are getting a distinctive talent in a needed role. With Royal, I think Denver was trying to get a first round talent, when really there was a reason many thought he'd still be waiting to hear his number called on Sunday.

I'll be back with more draft coverage tomorrow.

2008 NFL Draft First Round

2008-04-26T15:25:00.035-04:00

I'll be giving my thoughts on the first round as each pick develops. Be sure to check back as I'll keep updating this blog throughout the day!

#1: Jake Long, Miami: Jake Long is an interesting talent, although I don't like him as much as many of the top offensive line prospects in recent years. I'm surprised that Jake went to Miami given that they've spent a first rounder on left tackle Vernon Carney in 2004. Given that Parcell's likes to run a 3-4, I thought Gholston would be Miami's pick in a trade or Glenn Dorsey if they wanted to stay put.

#2: Chris Long, St. Louis: I was disappointed that New Orleans wasn't able to make a deal here. Getting New Orleans the top defensive tackle would have greatly increased Denver's odds of winning the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. St. Louis is already pretty stout along the defensive front, but I think they chose wisely here as Howie Long's son is quite possibly the best defensive end talent we've seen in years. He's got Hall of Fame potential and is easily the surest thing in this year's draft.

#3: Matt Ryan, Atlanta: I hate this pick. I don't think Matt Ryan is even the best quarterback available in this year's draft. Passing on Dorsey at this pick is a testament to the ineptitude of Falcons management. In the off season they hired an understudy to Green Bay's Ted Thompson. I don't think he's off to a good start. The Michael Vick Era has officially ended in Atlanta.

#4: Darren McFadden, Oakland: This is a typical Al Davis move. Despite having a very capable player in Justin Fargas and a budding star in Michael Bush, Davis grabbed the top skill position player at an area where no help is needed. There were plenty of other attractive options here including a trade with New Orleans. Davis will have close to $70 million guaranteed after he completes this move. He better hope he's done adding talent for a while.

#5: Glenn Dorsey, Kansas City: Great. We hadn't even finished celebrating the Jared Allen trade and now this happens. This is a tragedy for Denver. Having to line up opposite this titan for the next eight years is not very appealing. Not only does it hurt to see this freakish athlete in our division, but this officially knocks New Orleans out of the Glenn Dorsey sweepstakes. There is virtually no chance that we'll be receiving Sedrick Ellis. The probability that Denver grabs Brandon Albert at #12 just increased dramatically.

#6: Vernon Gholston, New York Jets: This is not a surprising pick. The Jets 3-4 has been atrocious since Mangini made the switch. The gutted the middle of their defense by shipping Dwayne Robertson and Jonathan Vilma out of town in the off season. After adding Kris Jenkins to line up next to Sean Ellis, Gholston should get plenty of opportunity as a hybrid end rusher/linebacker. Great pick by the Jets. Its hard to ignore the New England Patriots storyline here as well when one reflects on their off season loss of Roosevelt Colvin. My guess is that Keith Rivers is next assuming New England doesn't move down.

#7: Sedrick Ellis, New Orleans (via New England): And so Denver lost the Sedrick Ellis sweepstakes. No big surprise here. The Saints were determined to add an interior pass rusher in this year's draft and they've landed a great talent in Ellis. The terms of the trade are unclear to me so its hard for me to comment on the intelligence of this deal. If the price was high, this move may have been ill advised given the New Orleans has a need for Rivers, McKelvin, and Ellis--one of which would most certainly have been available at #10. The compensation was the swap of New Orleans early 3rd rounder for New England's late 5th rounder; that's pretty expensive to move up 3 slots...

#8: Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville (via Baltimore): After shelling out a ton of cash for speed rusher Reggie Hayward, it is clear that Jacksonville needed a player like Harvey. Hayward has lost 2 tenths of a second on his 40-time and is now a mediocre talent headed for the sidelines. In Harvey, Jacksonville got one of the most unheralded pass rushers in the draft. This was a dark horse candidate at #12 by Denver in my opinion. Very good pick. With Harvey off the board I'm guessing that Buffalo is now aggressively trying to move down. If they can't, McKelvin should be there guy assuming New England doesn't take him at #10. UPDATE: Jacksonville parted with a pair of 3rd rounders and a 4th rounder to make this deal. This is an enormously expensive, arguably short-sighted move by a team who seemingly has a sense of urgency to win in 2008 at all costs.

#9: Keith Rivers, Cincinnati: I've long maintained that Rivers is easily one of the top 10 overall players in this year's draft. He's a great consolation prize for Cincinnati who was reportedly hoping to land Sedrick Ellis. Cincinnati needs an upgrade at most positions, so I think they settled for the best player available. Great pick.

NOTE: It is now mathematically impossible for Denver to not have at least one of Brandon Albert, Ryan Clady, or Rashard Mendenhall. There is likely at least one team trying to swap picks with New England or Buffalo to move ahead of Denver to take the top tackle or running back on the board.

#10: Jerod Mayo, New England: Many will say this pick is a reach. I'm not sure I agree. This year's linebacker class isn't very deep and Mayo is among the best available. He projects as an impact-level WLB and many believe he can play ILB in the NFL. New England's youngest starting linebacker is Adalius Thomas at 31 years old. This is a desperate need for them in the draft. This year's cornerback class is extremely deep. The 3rd round pick they received from New Orleans will enable them to get a player like Brandon Flowers or Antoine Caison to fill this need. As much as I hate the Patriots, I think they made a good move here.

NOTE: There is no question in my mind that Denver is trying to move down right now. If they covet a tackle, they can swap with Detroit and still have a 100% chance of getting either Albert, Mendenhall, Stewart, or Clady. Expect Denver to move down for an extra first day pick.

#11: Leodis McKelvin, Buffalo: My complaint about this pick is that McKelvin doesn't give them a player with the size to play the Nickel. Make no mistake, Jabari Greer is a starting quality CB in the NFL. While McKelvin fills out a thin unit, he doesn't add great chemistry like a Mike Kelly would have. Also, McKelvin is among the better return men in the draft. The Bills already have among the best in the business in McGee. That doesn't make this a bad pick, but I think Buffalo could have secured a lot more value by moving down.

#12: Ryan Clady, Denver: I predicted earlier that Denver would take Clady at #12 if he was somehow still on the board. In Clady, they've got an fantastic athlete who is ready to step in to a zone blocking scheme that normally takes at least a year to learn. I would have liked to see Denver make a trade with Detroit here, but this is overall a solid pick.

#13: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina: With Derrick Harvey off the board I think that Carolina felt a little handcuffed with this pick. They have spent a number of high picks on running backs in recent years with lackluster results. If Carolina doesn't beef up their run blocking Stewart's talent is wasted. I'm a little surprised that an offensive lineman didn't get the nod here.

NOTE: With all these offensive line prospects slipping, what are the odds that Cherilus is available at #42? Cherilus and Clady would be a home run! Imagine:

Clady, LT
Cherilus, LG
?, C
Kuper, RG
Harris, RT

#14: Chris Williams, Chicago: Todd McShay quote: "Chicago doesn't really need a runningback." Oh really, Todd? Did you see Cedric Benson last year? Apparently not. Apparently Chicago didn't either! In my opinion, this is a big reach. Not only were there far better players available at this pick, there were far better offensive line talents available. I don't get it. There's about a 99.9% chance that Matt Millen takes yet another skill position player here.

I have a sixth sense that Detroit is about to make an embarrassing pick.

#15: Brandon Albert, Kansas City: Kansas City hit a home run here. Albert has the versatility to play guard or tackle. Many people thought he'd be gone in the top 10. Kansas City seems to be using the damage-control compensation they received for Brandon Albert wisely.

#16: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Arizona: Arizona is desperate for talent at defensive back. If Cromartie is anything like his cousin in San Diego, he figures to be a great solution. Additionally, Rodgers-Cromartie gives Arizona an option in the return game they've not had since Josh Scobey left town in 2004. I'm a little surprised to see Mendenhall last this long. I'm guessing Detroit takes them next.

#17: Gosder Cherilus, Detroit: Detroit landed themselves a fantastic player here albeit not one at a coveted position. Still, this makes a lot of sense as he can immediately fill in at guard in the zone blocking scheme (adopted in 2008). He's ultimately a right tackle prospect which makes a lot of sense for Detroit who is already set on the left side with Jeff Backus. This guy was marginally a 1st rounder and this is easily the biggest reach of the draft so far. Classic Matt Millen.

#18: Joe Flacco, Baltimore: This doesn't really impact Denver much because Baltimore picked ahead of Denver in round 2 anyway. We knew they'd add a quarterback at some point today. Flacco at this pick is clearly a need-based pick and he isn't anywhere near the 18th best player in the draft. Still, there's no shortage of pro bowlers who've projected as 2nd rounders, so maybe Baltimore knows something that we don't.

#19: Jeff Otah, Carolina (via Philadelphia): This is a huge positional need and a redeeming pick after taking Stewart at #13. I'm not sure what the compensation is for this pick, but they are addressing a huge need with this selection.

#20: Aqib Talib , Tampa Bay: I'm a little surprised that Mike Kelly didn't come off the board here. Talib arguably is a little better fit because he immediately upgrades the kick return game after Tampa Bay used a half dozen different players in this role last season. Talib is a good value here if his character concerns don't come back to haunt him. Good pick.

#21: Sam Baker, Atlanta (via Washington): Huh? This trade seems desperate. The rookie GM in Atlanta is either establishing a draft legacy for himself or he's showing his experience. This is a shocking reach.

#22: Felix Jones, Dallas: Strange that Rashard Mendenhall, more of a workhorse back, isn't here instead. Jones figures to be a change-of-pace back. With Marion Barber on the roster Dallas has the luxury to grab this style of runner, however. Jones will likely work only outside of the red zone and he has the quickness to exploit a seam. Is he an upgrade over Julius Jones? Time will tell.

#23: Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh: This is the steal of the draft (after maybe Albert Brandon at #15). Tomlin was obviously unimpressed with Fast Willie last year after taking red zone duties away from him in favor of Najeh Davenport. In Mendenhall, Pittsburgh is getting a 300-carry power running who is a much better fit in Tomlin's one-back system. He should immediately upgrade their rushing attack in the red zone. Great pick. Willie Parker is officially on the trading block.

#24: Chris Johnson, Tennessee: Huge reach here. Given the high first day picks invested in RB's over the last several years, you've got to wonder what Tennessee is thinking here. Lendale White was effective last year and Chris Henry looks ready to carry a big load. Chris Brown was a huge bust several years ago. Chris Johnson does fit some distinctive needs for Tennessee, however. Now that Pacman Jones is in Dallas, Tennessee can use a great return man. Chris Johnson is an explosive kick returner with world class speed. He is undersized to be more than a change-of-pace back, however. As a third-down back and kick returner, he's not a horrible pick, but this is a huge reach as Johnson is firmly a second rounder in my opinion.

#25: Mike Jenkins, Dallas: This is a home run for Dallas. Not only are they desperate for talent at cornerback, Mike Jenkins is among the best in the draft. There's no question that Jenkins is the most physical cornerback in the draft. He's an instant upgrade in the nickel and could blossom into a pro bowl athlete.

#26: Duane Brown, Houston: I'm astonished that this many offensive lineman have come off the board thus far. Still, Brown isn't a huge reach this late in the first and he's a big need for Houston. Houston's had a quite day and is a team who should be on the playoff bubble this year. I'm shocked they didn't move on Mendenhall.

#27: Antoine Cason, San Diego: This is a guy I've liberally mentioned as among the most underrated players available in this year's draft. Clearly A.J. Smith feels the same way. Many will consider this a reach, but I saw plenty of Antoine Cason this year--including his single-handed victory over 2nd ranked OSU--and I can tell you this kid is NFL ready. I'm terrified of Cason in the Nickel for a unit that is already very talented in San Diego. Great pick.

#28: Lawrence Jackson, Seattle: I thought there were 3 or 4 guys better than Jackson available at this position. This is a huge reach. Seattle doesn't really have a distinctive need for a pass rusher, either. I don't get it. Terrible pick.

#29: Kentwan Balmer, San Francisco: I expect that Balmer will play end in San Francisco's 3-4 defense. Balmer lacks the size to be an NT type and has plenty of experience at DE and DT. He's versatile enough that he gives San Francisco a lot of versatility at a critical need. What's more, Balmer--a risky albeit talented prospect--is a great value here. Solid pick.

NOTE: San Francisco is among the teams reportedly interested in grabbing ILB Curtis Lofton to play alongside Patrick Willis. Assuming that Denver has an interest in the Al Wilson clone, this is an encouraging pick; however, don't stop holding your breath as San Francisco will be back on the clock shortly.

#30: Dustin Keller, New York: Keller adds a formidable offensive weapon to a team that will benefit from the extra playmaker. Keller should fit in nicely with a fierce group of young offensive talents such as Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington, and Brad Smith. Great pick. This is another near-miss at the ILB position improving Denver's chance of grabbing Conner or Lofton in 13 picks.

#31: Kenny Phillips, New York Giants: Shanahan is undoubtedly none too happy about this one. Ultimately, I think this is fortuitous as I don't think any player in this year's safety class is worth a 2nd rounder. The giants lost Gibril Wilson in the off season and have reloaded in their zone-heavy scheme.

NOTE: Denver is likely thinking Curtis Lofton, Dan Conner, DeJuan Morgan, Zuttah, or a receiver. No DeSean Jackson yet? I guess more were concerned about is 170lb frame than the "experts" thought. There's been enough surprises that Denver should get a first-round quality talent with that pick. I'd be happy with Lofton, Zuttah, or Jackson.

That's the end of the first round! Thanks for tuning in. I'll be sure to post my comments on #42 and the two 4th rounders later tonight!

Final Draft Thoughts

2008-04-26T13:36:00.005-04:00

As the 2008 NFL draft rapidly approaches, here are some final thoughts.

First, I want to talk about needs. Here is my list of draft needs by position, in order of priority:

Defensive Tackle: This morning I was surprised to see that Todd McShay had removed defensive tackle from his list of "needs" in this year's draft. Certainly adding D-Rob helps, but I still don't see a good argument for a bigger need than defensive tackle. For one, there isn't a true 2-gap defender on our thin roster. We have zero injury insurance at the position and certainly won't have any kind of a rotation with the roster as is. Finally, there is no guarantee that Thomas will (a) stay out of jail and (b) play anywhere near his potential in 2008. Take his name out of the hat, and Denver is in terrible shape at a critical position.
Offensive Line: Pick a position. Holland is probably the surest thing on our lines to produce for 3-5 years. Hamilton is likely to retire after this year as is future Hall of Fame center Tom Nalen. Chris Kuper is an outstanding talent but ultimately may be a best fit at guard. Harris, last year's 68th overall pick, could very well be the future of our franchise at left or right tackle. Fortunately, first-day options along the offensive line are plentiful. Ultimately, a guy who can play all along the line like Williams, Albert, or Cherilus may be the best fit. Although there are some intriguing left tackle prospects to be had early on draft day. Ryan Clady, who looks like a distinctive fit for the zone-blocking scheme, is chief among them.
Halfback: Gone are the days of roll outs and bootlegs to get Plummer out in space where he works best. For all of Plummer's shortcomings, his playing style sure had a knack for keeping blitzers off balance. With Cutler in town, we are going to have to get serious about pass protection in the pocket. A running back capable of sustaining a block in the passing game is a critical. Last year, Denver allowed 8.5 sacks to blitzing safeties and linebackers. What's more, Denver's power run success percentage was the worst its been in years under Shanahan. This was undoubtedly a culprit behind our paltry touchdown percentage in the red zone. A powerful back with 300-carry potential and pass blocking skills would solve a lot of problems. Unfortunately, there aren't that many 215-pound plus running backs with the elusiveness, vision, speed, and pass blocking skills to reconcile all these issues. To solidly address these needs, Denver will seriously consider grabbing Rashard Mendenhall in the first round.
Safety: Denver has retained Abdullah and Lynch for one more year. Last season, one injury forced Denver to move Dominique Foxworth out of position to play some safety. Nick Ferguson left Denver while two fresh faces, Manuel and McCree, were signed and will compete for a roster slot. We have adequate depth at the position to survive in 2008 without adding a rookie; however, this unit is incredibly average if not downright terrible. When Abdullah and Lynch leave town next season, someone will have to be signed. Ideally, Denver will take a safety sometime this weekend. Being that the class is not very deep, it may be hard to find a good value. Don't be surprised if a defensive back isn't added until day 2.
Middle Linebacker: What Niko Koutouvides buys us is time at the position. My suspicion is that Koutouvides is a stopgap option who could potentially provide great depth and be a special teams standout for years to come. While the MLB class is not deep, there are some intriguing prospects available on the first day. Among the, Curtis Lofton is my favorite. I'd also be happy with Jerod Mayo (who arguably is more of a WLB type) if he slipped to us at #42. Beau Bell is a good value in round 4. Vanderbilt's Jonathan Goff is an absolute steal in round 6. I expect Denver will take one of these four players at some point in the draft.
Kick Return Specialist: Since Reuben Droughns won the starting job in 2004, Denver hasn't had a respectable return game. Attempts at a quality return man have been fruitless. It is believed Denver will target a RB, CB, or WR with return skills at some point this weekend to improve our lousy 2007 field position. Even though its not among our most critical needs, don't be surprised to see a high pick spent on a wide receiver or cornerback who can excel in this role. Brandon Flowers and Chris Johnson are two candidates for this role who've been mentioned liberally in the media.
Wide Receiver: Denver added a trio of wide receivers in free agency. One of them, Samie Parker, is considered a long shot to make the roster. Another, Keary Colbert, has been the apple of Shanahan's eye since being drafted in 2004. Drawing comparisons to Eddie McCaffrey, Colbert seems the heir apparent at split end heading into 2008. Darrell Jackson, a formidable red zone weapon who's scored 50 touchdowns in 8 seasons, is only with Denver for a year and has had a lot of problems staying on the field since 2004. Brandon Stokley's is also close to the end of his career and will likely retire in the next two seasons. I expect Denver to draft a project player at Wide Receiver anywhere from round 2 to round 7.
Defensive End: Ekuban will probably leave the team next year. Engelberger should give us at least another 3 years and is great blue-collar depth. Dumervil is a pure pass rush specialist who will work some from defensive tackle on passing downs. That leaves the unproven Crowder and Moss. Both have shown a lot of promise but should they fail to reach their potential Denver may find themselves shorthanded in 2009. I don't consider this to be a critical need but wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive end with run-stopping ability come off the board for a good value. Some have even speculated the Denver will take Moss's teammate Derrick Harvey at #12. I think Harvey is quietly among the most coveted players in the draft and expect Buffalo to take him at #11. If he drops to Denver, it will be interesting to see if they pass on him.
Cornerback: Shanahan requires his corners to play an extremely physical style of football. For this reason, cornerbacks in Denver tend to spend the regular season pretty banged up. Bly and Bailey have both played through injuries the last several seasons. What's more, Foxworth will test the free agent market next season. After Foxworth leaves town, Denver will be talented but not deep at an important position. This year's cornerback class is so deep that great talents like Antoine Caison can be had as late as round 4. There is also a possibility that McKelvin drops to Denver at #12. If the right player is available at the right pick, I don't think Denver will hesitate to add some depth to the secondary.

Based on these needs, here's how I see the first couple of rounds shaking out:

12th Overall Pick:

Mendenhall or Clady? Both are franchise-player quality talents at positions which are distinctive needs. Clady may not be available. If he's not, my best guess is that Denver grabs Mendenhall.
Wildcards: Don't be surprised to see an unexpected pick here. I've already argued that Denver may have a hard time passing on McKelvin. Keith Rivers could also be picked here in a move that would most certainly result in a D.J. Williams trade at some point this year or next. Derrick Harvey is another player Denver is undoubtedly intrigued by and would be a palatable choice.
Dumbest Possible Move: Reaching for Chris Williams, Kentwan Balmer, Jerod Mayo, or Kenny Phillips. None of these guys are 12th-pick value. Denver could move down ten picks or more and still rest assured one of these guys are available. In other words, if you must take a DT or OT, move down.

42nd Overall Pick: Here are my thoughts on this pick:
- Most Likely Scenario: Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan. If Denver is going to address their needs at the safety position, it will have to happen early as the class is miserably thin (Reggie Nelson, anyone?).
- I'd like to see... If I had my choice, Denver would walk away from this pick with either Curtis Lofton or Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus would immediately add depth at guard and has the run blocking ability to blossom into a fantastic right tackle. Of all the offensive lineman in the draft short of Ryan Clady, Cherilus seems to be the best fit for our team. That said, Cherilus is likely not available at this pick. If we must grab an offensive lineman, the surly Zuttah would be my next choice.
- Dumbest Pick Possible: A reach at defensive tackle would be a disaster here. All the true 2-gap options available figure as late 3rd-rounders to early 5th-rounders. Dre Moore, Patrick Sims, and DeMario Pressley are 3-technique guys who aren't going to take pressure off the LB/S positions in the running game. If Denver can't get Ellis, they need to wait patiently until round 4.
A Pair of Fourth Rounders: Here's my thoughts:
- Most Likely Scenario: I would be astonished if Denver didn't take at least one defensive tackle with this pick given the crop of talents available in this round. My stone-cold lock pick for this year's draft is Letroy Guion in round 4. If not a pair of defensive tackles, Denver could also use this pick to take a safety, wide reciever (Dexter Jackson?), cornerback (Antoine Caison?), or runningback (Michael Forte/Cory Boyd?)--preferably with return skills. Beau Bell is also a dark horse candidate to get picked here at MLB.
- I'd like to see... I would be elated to see Denver grab Athyba Rubin at the top of round 4. Most draft boards figure him to be a late 3rd rounder, so this probably doesn't happen. After that, I'd grab Letroy Guion based purely on upside and versatility. Red Bryant is another guy I like but he's a pure 2-gap defender like Rubin. Any combination of the three would ultimately make me very happy.

That's all I have for now! I'll discuss day 2 strategies after day 1 is finished! I'll be posting throughout the draft today and will give you a postmortem this evening. Enjoy the draft!

Saints Selling their Soul for Dorsey

2008-04-25T10:04:00.002-04:00

A Pete Prisco article this morning has probably left Saints fans a bit shell shocked. In it, Prisco claims that New Orleans is so desperate to move up and grab Dorsey, that they are shopping left tackle Jammal Brown. A 2006 Pro Bowler, Jammal Brown is largely considered to be one of the premier tackles in the game today at only 27 years of age. Prisco notes that Jammal's production "dropped off" in 2007, a fact not supported by Drew Brees' sack rate of 1 per 40 pass attempts--far and away the best in the NFL. If Saints management makes this move, they better be prepared to declare marshal law in New Orleans.

What, you may be wondering, does all this have to do with Denver? As I noted last week, a New Orleans deal for Glenn Dorsey leaves Cincinnati as the only possible roadblock to a deal for Sedrick Ellis. If the Saints move up, don't be surprised to see Denver trade up with the Bengals, Ravens, or Patriots.

Woderlic Wonderland

2008-04-25T09:37:00.002-04:00

Several weeks ago Ryan Clady was exposed for being a less-than-brilliant athlete when someone leaked his Wonderlic score. Well, some more scores were leaked this morning. Here are some of the more interesting results:

Some lousy performers:

Sedrick Ellis (15)
Andre Woodson (14)
Mario Manningham (6)
Brandon Albert (19)
James Hardy (14)
Matt Forte (16)
Philip Merling (13)
Rashard Mendenhall (23)
Jonathan Stewart (20)
Some good performers:

Frank Okam (39)
Trevor Laws (30)
John Carlson (40)
Jordy Nelson (28)
Jeremy Zuttah (26)

The median score is usually around 27.

According to a handful of studies on the matter, there is very little correlation between Wonderlic score and NFL performance; however, the true efficacy of the test is very difficult to measure for a number of methodological reasons. Still, all other things being equal, most would prefer a smarter athlete.

D-Rob a Panacea for the D-Line?

2008-04-25T09:18:00.003-04:00

Seemingly so, if you read this morning's Denver Post:

"The question is not whether they can get a quality tackle, the question is whether they get one they feel is worthy of the No. 12 selection and pay scale," said Jeffrey Foster, president of NFL Scouting Inc., which serves 20 teams, including the Broncos. "There will be a tackle there that they like, but is he worth 12th-pick money? Those are questions that head coaches and salary cap guys and personnel guys start debating."

What the Broncos won't do is trade up for Sedrick Ellis or down for Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackles projected for the first round. The position is no longer a top priority after the Broncos acquired defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson from the New York Jets on Thursday in exchange for a 2009 conditional draft pick. "

A couple of thoughts:

I absolutely agree with the first quote. I believe Denver likes several offensive line prospects available at #12 in this year's draft; however, I don't believe that Denver thinks they are all worth 12th pick money. In fact, Ryan Clady is the only guy I believe Denver is truly interested in drafting if they stay put in round 1. If some combination of Mendenhall, Rivers, McKelvin, Thomas, and Harvey are on the board when Denver picks, they will likely try and move down to take Williams, Otah, or Cherilius. If they don't receive a reasonable trade offer, don't be surprised to hear Mendenhall's, Rivers', or Harvey's name called at 12th overall. With the tackle class this deep, Denver isn't going to overpay for a player based on need.
I disagree with the second part of this quote. Conservatively speaking, Denver views D-Rob as a stopgap at defensive tackle. Sure, he's a young guy with plenty of talent, but his knees are a ticking timebomb waiting to go off. What Robertson buys the Broncos is time. My guess is that Shanahan uses that time wisely. That is, he will add a lot of talent to the position this weekend. Only the rarest defensive tackle is capable of stepping in to a rotation and making an impact their first year. Thus, I don't buy that Denver isn't interested in trading up to acquire Sedrick Ellis. In fact, I think they'll have to deal with Cincinnati on the issue who may already be positioning themselves to negotiate a deal.

Broncos.com Confirms D-Rob Trade

2008-04-24T19:52:00.004-04:00

Broncos.com has confirmed the Dwayne Robertson was acquired today for only a conditional 2009 draft pick. This is shocking news given that the asking price for Robertson was reportedly much higher. Should Robertson, who's seldom missed a start during his 4 year career, overcome concerns about the health of his knees, he'll be an absolute steal at this price. Reportedly, Denver surrenders the pick only if Robertson makes it through training camp healthy.

Katnik a Roster Casualty

2008-04-24T18:35:00.003-04:00

Little-known former USC center Norm Katnik was released today in a roster move intended to make room for Dwayne Robertson. Denver's history of turning undrafted lineman into superstar performers made Katnik a possible successor to Tom Nalen when he retires. While this move is hardly newsworthy, additional shrinkage of the already thin Broncos offensive line depth chart adds credence to the belief that multiple offensive line prospects will be added on Saturday.

D-Rob a Bronco

2008-04-24T16:36:00.011-04:00

ESPN reports that Jets DT Dwayne Robertson has been dealt to Denver for undisclosed draft picks. No details of the deal are available, however, Cincinnati reportedly withdrew an offer for a 4th and a 5th rounder, suggesting Denver's offer was less profitable for the Jets. Should Robertson stay healthy, he would provide much needed relief to Denver's depleted defensive line.

UPDATE: ESPN's Bill Williamson has carefully chosen the phrase "pick or picks" in highlighting Denver's cost in this deal. The possibility that we have spend a single first-day pick still remains. Adam Schefter is now reporting that Denver will send a conditional 2009 pick as compensation. I need more than one hand to count the number of times Adam Schefter has reported something that turned out to be purely fabricated. I'm still not convinced that Denver won't part with a 2008 pick between rounds 4 and 6.

Also, Jeff Legwold just published a short article on this developing situation. After reading it I have a couple of notable insights:

Word of this deal was apparently leaked by Oakland who recently inquired about his availability. This could mean that Denver didn't want this information released publicly until the draft. So long as the draft-pick compensation is undisclosed, Denver still retains some strategic leverage over third parties whose tactical decisions on draft day would be affected by this deal. In other words, don't expect to hear the full details of this deal until next Sunday.
Shanahan recently intimated that a deal for Robertson was unlikely because he considered his knees to be a "big risk." Lets get the obvious out of the way here: this could easily be construed as a smoke screen. Given all the interest Robertson has received, that would've been prudent. Not so obvious are the details of the new contract Denver has negotiated with Robertson in consideration of this deal. The Broncos certainly aren't going to pay the $18 million he's owed over the next two seasons. More likely, Robertson will receive some kind of incentive-laden deal predicated largely on the number of games he suits up for.
Most telling in this situation is the level of effort displayed by Cincinnati. Depending on how you look at it, there are a couple of ways you can interpret these moves:
1. One might conjecture that Cincinnati had no intention of drafting Sedrick Ellis at 9th overall and were looking for a stop gap option. I tend not to subscribe to this believe.
2. I'd argue that Cincinnati has tipped their hand that defensive tackle is this most pressing need on Saturday. Burning question: did D-Rob's failed physical deal Denver out of any shot at Sedrick Ellis on Saturday? Time will tell.
3. This could also possibly be an elaborate ploy by Cincinnati to increase their credibility in any potential trade agreement with Denver on draft day. Cincinnati is 2 picks removed from Denver in nearly ever round and also has glaring needs at DT, so this would make sense.

The more I read about this deal the more I like it. Assuming such an incentive-laden contract is in place, Denver has secured a decent chance of having a veteran defensive tackle to anchor the currently young, depleted line. Perhaps Robertson's knees keep him sidelined through much of the 2008 season and he retires; Denver would lose a pick and a paltry sum of cap room. Perhaps Robertson is effective and healthy in 2008 before succumbing to health problems; Denver would give their 2008 draft prospects a year to develop behind a veteran defender. Or perhaps Robertson stays healthy long term and anchors Denver's defensive line; what a steal that would be! The third scenario is not out of the question. After all, Robertson is only 27 years old. There's a lot of room for optimism in this move.

Lombardi on Broncos Draft: 'Think Big'

2008-04-24T11:23:00.003-04:00

Broncos castoff Michael Lombardi offered his draft insights for all of his former employers. In Denver's case, he had the following to say:

"It is critical in the NFL to have symmetry with your personnel. Right now, the Broncos don't have that fluid feel to their offense. They have a tremendous drop-back passer in Jay Cutler, but a smallish offensive line. The two pieces don't work well together.

Cutler is at his best when he can stand behind the center and throw the ball all over the field. He has very unique skills that can eventually lead a team to the Super Bowl, but he needs to have an offensive line that can highlight those skills. The Broncos need to acquire bigger bodies to help protect Cutler, not only to throw the ball down the field but also to control the line of scrimmage.

Cutler was uncanny last year in his ability to throw the ball with defensive lineman all around his legs. But Cutler took too many unnecessary hits and the Broncos needs to do a better job of securing him in the pocket."

The Broncos certainly got off to a good start by signing 322-pound Montrae Holland away from New Orleans. In Harris and Kuper, they have a pair of 300-pound lineman who may have another 10 pounds left on their frame. Denver will undoubtedly target a pair of offensive lineman this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see two athletes of the 305-pound+ variety.

Woody Paige on the Draft

2008-04-24T10:44:00.002-04:00

The always-annoying Woody Paige told us what he would do at #12 in this year's draft in his weekly mailbag column:

I trade down and get a third-round choice (which the Broncos currently do not have). I choose Kentwan Balmer, the mammoth defensive lineman out of North Carolina, with the lower first-round pick and Curtis Lofton, linebacker from Oklahoma, with the second pick. They both would spot play and add depth where the Broncos need it. I'm waiting for Shanny's call for advice.

As much as it hurts me to agree with Woody Paige, I love all the draft buzz about Denver taking Curtis Lofton at #42. Balmer I'm not so fond of, but I can live with him for the right price. 12th overall is not the right price.

Intriguing Retrospective Piece on Elway

2008-04-24T10:19:00.002-04:00

Pro Football Weekly republished a piece written about draft prospect John Elway prior to the 1983 draft. In it, they speculate that the Colts will trade out of the #1 pick to avoid drafting Elway, who doesn't want to play for them. The article then evaluates the prospect of Elway opting out of a career in the NFL to play baseball with the Yankees (apparently his mother wanted him to play baseball). Ultimately the Colts drafted Elway and traded him for a QB, OG-OT Chris Hinton, and a first rounder in 2004. The post-article commentary notes that the trade was a "steal" for Denver. In hindsight this is ostensibly the case; however, the article fails to mention that Chris Hinton played 13 years and went to 7 pro bowls. With that first round pick, the Colts drafted career backup OG Ron Solt rather than taking the top QB in the draft, Boomer Esaison. Had they made a better choice on draft day, they could have received better value for the trade.

Otah and Williams Slipping

2008-04-23T23:51:00.002-04:00

According to Pro Football Weekly, Otah and Williams have slipped on many draft boards over the last several weeks. In fact, Gosder Cherilius has reported moved ahead of these two on some clubs draft sheets.

This doesn't surprise me. Williams and Otah are not 12th-pick athletes in my opinion. I'd be shocked to see Denver take either player barring a trade. Ellis, Mendenhall/Clady, Clady/Mendenhall, Keith Rivers, Derrick Harvey, and Jonathan Stewart is my best guess for who Denver is targeting at #12.

Foxworth Glad to be Back

2008-04-23T10:25:00.003-04:00

Apparently D.J. Williams isn't the only guy happy to get back his natural position next year. In his latest blog post, recently resigned Dominique Foxworth has the following to say:

"I am also looking forward to focusing on corner, which should allow me to make a lot more plays and return to the very talented young corner that I was before I started bouncing around and filling in for the team at safety and various other positions. I am very excited about signing some new guys, which keep me at corner and I can rekindle my corner talent."

He's also got some insights on marriage, the draft, and the Nuggets. Its worth a read.

I'm a big supporter of Dominique Foxworth and hope he sticks around a lot longer than his one-year contract stipulates.

Saints' Movement could Improve Denver's Outlook

2008-04-23T09:28:00.004-04:00

ESPN reports that New Orleans is aggressively seeking suitors to move up in this weekend's draft. According to the article, GM Mickey Loomis is evaluating the cost of moving into the top 5. This move is ostensibly an effort to draft Glenn Dorsey. Should this occur, Cincinnati would be the only obvious threat to drafting Sedrick Ellis at #12. Given that Cincinnati needs to upgrade at arguably every position on their team except for quarterback, it would not be unusual to see them pass on Ellis. Denver's situation at defensive tackle headed into 2008 is seemingly hopeless. Should he fall to us at #12, Ellis would be somewhat of a white knight in Denver.

UPDATE: Pro Football Weekly reports that the Rams are aggressively seeking suitors to trade out of the next pick in the NFL draft. Should New Orleans make a deal, Glenn Dorsey would almost certainly be their choice.

Goodbye, Good Luck, and Good Riddance

2008-04-23T09:07:00.004-04:00

Au Revoir, Jared! So sad to see you go! Farewell! (Don't let the door hit you in the ass)

It's a done deal. See, our offensive line just got better and we haven't drafted a single player!

Bravo, Carl, Bravo! Encore! Encore!

TSN Final Mock Draft

2008-04-21T13:28:00.002-04:00

The TSN final mock draft bucked the trend of analysts who've predicted that Denver will take whichever tackle prospect falls in their lap at #12. Echoing recent sentiment from this blogger, they predict Denver will grab RB Rashard Mendenhall with the 12th overall pick. The player Denver takes next month will probably be some intersection of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent. Taking all of these into consideration, these are the players, in order of probability, that I see Denver drafting at #12:

Rashard Mendenhall
Ryan Clady
Jonathan Stewart
Keith Rivers
Derrick Harvey
Chris Williams

Mendenhall is the surest combination of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent available by a long shot. Clady also fits all three, but in an incredibly deep draft class combined with Clady's strange personality and worrisome Wonderlic score lead me to believe that Denver would rather address this need in round 2 and beyond. Realistically, Clady and Rivers are likely long gone by the time Denver picks at #12. Assuming this is the case, I think Shanahan's ultimate decision will be between grabbing Mendenhall at #12 or trading down a couple of picks to take whichever back drops. Given the compensation, the latter strategy may ultimately be the most prudent course.

Is any RB worthy of a first round pick?

2008-04-20T19:37:00.004-04:00

According to a recent article at the NFL Stats blog, they're worth their weight in gold. According to the article, a running back's career yards per carry and likelihood of attending a pro bowl are both strongly correlated with their draft order. Many have argued that Shanahan's selection of undrafted and late-round running backs are evidence that he has a penchant for finding late round steals. The author of this article notes an interesting point:

"For any one RB's season, offensive line ability has a tremendous influence on his stats. But over 490 careers and over 24 years of data, the abilities of offensive lines will average itself out to a great degree, leaving career YPC a reliable estimate of true RB performance when grouped by round or draft order."

Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?

In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.

'Best-Value' Draft Picks: Workhorse Back Edition

2008-04-20T13:12:00.013-04:00

This is the latest addition to my 'best-value' series which began with this article on the 2008 defensive tackle class. Recall, when we talk about 'best-value,' we are referring to a players quality and price. Thus, Jonathan Stewart might be the highest quality running back on your board, but as an early 1st-round pick, his price is also among the highest in the draft.

In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:

23% of Denver's running plays were for 10+ yards (a large amount).

Denver was ranked 32nd in the NFL in Power Success Percentage, the percentage of 2nd/3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 plays that resulted in first downs or touchdowns.

Denver was 20th in the league in Stuffed Percentage, the percentage of running plays which resulted in zero yardage or negative yards.

Selvin Young ranked 40th and Travis Henry ranked 27th in Success Percentage, a statistic which tabulates "success" or "fail" for each run dependent on the down and distance.

Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:

The loss of Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, and Henry (for most of the year) dealt a painful blow to our rushing attack in 2007. Denver will likely benefit from the return of at least half this cast (assuming a minimum of either Hamilton or Henry make it back).

Denver needs to inject some youth into the offensive line in this year's draft. Right tackle and guard are the principle areas of need.

Denver could use a third down back with better pass-blocking and route-running ability than Selvin Young, although, Selvin was serviceable in the role given his 10+ yard run tally.

Denver needs a workhorse back to fix its power running game. With Lepsis, Henry, Hamilton, and Nalen healthy after 4 weeks, Henry had zero touchdowns to show for his league-leading yardage. Denver's red zone touchdown percentage was among the worst its had in years, and the running game is a huge reason for this; more on this in a second.

This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:

Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.

Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:

PLAYER:	WEIGHT:
Cad. Williams	217
Chester Taylor	213
Clinton Portis	223
Corey Dillon	225
Curtis Martin	210
Domanick Davis	221
Edgerrin James	220
Frank Gore	223
Jamal Lewis	245
L. Tomlinson	221
Larry Johnson	230
LenDale White	235
Reuben Droughns	220
Rudi Johnson	214
Shaun Alexander	228
Steven Jackson	232
Thomas Jones	215
Tiki Barber	205
Willie Parker	209
Willis McGahee	232

Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.

It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.

So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.

Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:

#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.

#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.

#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.

#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.

#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:

An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.

Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.

Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.

Rivers Top Gun in West???

2008-04-20T11:52:00.006-04:00

Someone please tell me that this article by Denver Post writer Jim Armstrong is just some belated April fools joke. What in the world is this guy talking about?

"Frankly, given the state of the AFC West these days, Rivers has every right to chirp.

When it comes to quarterbacks, Rivers is the man for all seasons in the West. He's the best quarterback in the division and the most experienced. He has won 25-of-32 starts and twice taken the Chargers to the playoffs.

The other starting quarterbacks in the West? For one thing, they have lots of potential. For another . . . um, did we mention they have lots of potential?"

Hmm...let's take a look at some highlights from the 2007 and 2008 pro bowl rosters:

Ladanian Tomlinson (hall of famer) (both years)
Antonio Gates (hall of famer) (both years)
Lorenzo Neal (hall of famer) (both years)
Marcus McNeil OT (both years)
Kris Dielhman OG (2008)
Nick Hardwick C (both years)
Jamal Williams DT (both years)
Shawn Merriman OLB (both years)
Antonio Cromartie CB (2008)
Kassim Osgood ST (both years)
Nate Kaeding K (2007)
David Binn LS (2007)

That's 12 pro bowlers and three hall of famers! And Philip Rivers is top gun, why, because he plays for these guys?

Lets take a look at another set of statistics:

Jay Cutler:	Philip Rivers
QB Rating: 88.1	QB Rating: 82.4
YPA: 7.5	YPA: 6.9
Comp %: 63.6	Comp %: 60.2
Total TD: 21	Total TD: 22
Total TO's: 18	Total TO's: 21
Total Yd's: 3702	Total Yd's: 3185

Rivers is the better QB? Really? Last I checked, Cutler didn't hold a clipboard for Drew Brees for 2 years either.

There are few things more annoying than seeing this kind of jabberwocky spewed from the pen of a Denver Broncos beat writer. At least if it were an AP article the Denver Post could feign ignorance.

Of course, no statistic measures class. In that category, Philip Rivers is dead last in the NFL:

Great story Denver Post! Some of you may recall last Saturday I had similar sentiments for "Chief Asshole" Philip Rivers. The video at this link is exactly the same. It's not like there is a paucity of Rivers hate videos on the internet, but after his deplorable behavior week 5, what could possibly make you angrier?

Robertson Reportedly Costs a 2nd Rounder

2008-04-20T11:32:00.003-04:00

TSN's AFC West Draft Preview reports that Dwayne Robertson's price tag is the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick. Earlier this month, several news sources suggested that Robertson would cost two of Denver's 4th through 6th round picks. Since then, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have entered the market for Robertson, driving his price up. This is an astonishingly-high price to pay for a perennial underachiever with a bone-on-bone knee condition. If Robertson's reported cost is factually correct, I would be shocked (and enraged) if Denver made this deal.

The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.

The Bridge between Bon Jovi and Bow Wow

2008-04-18T10:13:00.004-04:00

According to the Denver Post, that bridge would be Jeremy Bates, the 28-year-old Quarterbacks Coach for the Denver Broncos who will have offensive coordinator responsibilities in 2008. Bates joins a rapidly proliferating group of young, talented NFL coaches receiving unprecedented responsibilities. Bates is 4-years younger than Texans offensive coordinator and Shanahan's son, Kyle Shanahan. 32-year-old Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the record-shattering New England Patriots last season.

Last year, Lane Kiffin became the youngest Head Coach in NFL history at the age of 31 years, 8 months. It comes as little surprise that his boss, Al Davis, would make such a bold move given that Davis himself is among the youngest coaches ever; in 1963 Davis became the Raiders head coach at 33 years, 6 months. Later, Davis hired another young head coach named John Madden, who was 32 years, 10 months old. His next young hire was a brilliant offensive mind named Mike Shanahan, who at age 35 and 1/2 coached the Raiders for a year before bolting to the division-rival Broncos. Still later, Davis hired John Gruden at 34 years, 10 months, who built a Super Bowl ready team before bolting to Tampa Bay. Gruden defeated his former employer in the Super Bowl the following season.

For once, maybe Al Davis is on to something here! A scan of the list of the youngest head coaches in NFL history reveals that some of the leagues winningest coaches began their careers at unusually young ages. The list includes NFL greats Don Schula and Bill Cowher. It also includes head coaching newcomers Mike Tomlin and Eric Mangini.

Among the most difficult challenges for NFL head coaches is getting through to their players. The age difference between a coach in his 50's or 60's and a twenty-something group of athletes can lead to pronounced communication divides. As the Denver Post points out, these young coaches can bridge the gap. In Denver's case, the movement of so young an offensive mind through the ranks is certainly intriguing. When Rick Dennison finally makes the jump to NFL head coach or decides to hang 'em up for good, this young prodigy could be the future architect of Denver's offense.

Mayo Skyrocketing up Draft Boards

2008-04-17T19:18:00.002-04:00

Pro Football Weekly reports that Tennessee linebacker Jerod Mayo is skyrocketing up many teams draft boards. Some have even intimated that they feel Mayo has overtaken Rivers as the top linebacker in the draft. While there's little debate that Mayo possesses superior athleticism, Rivers is easily the more polished of the two.

Many have conjectured that Denver will draft Mayo with their first overall pick in this year's draft, including ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. Mayo's current skillset makes him a better fit at WLB than at our position of need, MLB; however, many feel he can be an effective MLB at the next level, given time. With free agent acquisition Niko Koutivides on the roster, Denver arguably has that. What's more, Mayo is an excellent zone defender, meaning he could conceivably see some playing time on special teams and in Nickel packages while he acclimates to the defense. Still, that's an awfully small role for a player that would garner first round money. I don't see this pick happening, but seeing as Mayo has solidified himself as a first round pick, I thought it was worth mentioning.

Another possible suitor for Jerod Mayo is the Detroit Lions, who'd love to find a talent to compliment Erie Sims. Should Mayo continue his climb, there may be demand to move ahead of Detroit in the draft. Chicago and Denver are the most likely suitors for such a team. When you add Mayo to the crowded list of talent that will undoubtedly be available with the 12th overall pick, Denver figures to have an easy time moving down and adding an extra first day pick.

A Big 'Thank You' to Carl Peterson

2008-04-17T14:46:00.004-04:00

It looks like Carl Peterson is dumb enough to trade superstar defensive end Jared Allen, or so says Allen. After missing 2 games last year to a DUI suspension, Allen recorded 15.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in 14 games. These numbers may seem heroic to some of you, but they are actually godly; in case you haven't noticed the Chiefs defense sucks.

Reportedly, this move is being made to "stockpile draftpicks" and embrace the Chiefs "rebuilding mode." Truthfully, this move is being made because (a) the Chiefs have no money to sign Allen right now, (b) Allen is an unrestricted free agent next year, and (c) Allen also thinks the Chiefs defense sucks and he'd rather play elsewhere. I'm not sure what a team in "rebuilding mode" is looking for if not a player like Allen. At 26-years-old, Allen is arguably the best player in the NFL at arguably the toughest position to find great players.

In two meetings last year, Allen terrorized our ailing offensive line. I want to extend a special "thanks" to Carl Peterson for being such an incompetent fool. This buds for you, Carl!

Jackson Signs a Palatable Deal

2008-04-17T13:33:00.002-04:00

The Rocky Mountain News reports that Darrell Jackson signed a $1.5 million contract with escalators that could raise his salary to $2 million. The deal is for one year. Given that Jackson is one year removed from being among the league's elite wide receivers, this is a deep discount. Let's hope that Jackson's woes in San Francisco were a function of Alex Smith.

Is Jared Allen Leaving Kansas City?

2008-04-16T16:55:00.003-04:00

In their weekly draft Q&A, Pro Football Weekly had the following to say in response to speculation that Kansas City will move down in the draft:

"From what I'm told, there has been ongoing discussion in Kansas City since the start of free agency about shipping franchised DE Jared Allen to a number of suitors, including Minnesota, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, in exchange for draft picks. However, if the deal were to occur, it would seem the Chiefs would want the comfort of being able to replace him in the draft. Depending on whether the right defensive end is available at the No. 5 position, a move may not be made until Draft Day. If it does happen, the Chiefs would wind up with an additional first-round pick to address their most pressing need, on the offensive line."

Why would you ever trade a guy like Allen? He may be the best defensive end the franchise ever sees. I doubt they could grab another talent like him in their next 100 tries. Let's hope the rumors are true. Allen gave our battered line fits last year. Leave it to Herm to burn Vermeil's legacy to ashes.

As an aside, the article also indicates that Denver is strongly interested in moving down in the draft. He lists Detroit and Philadelphia as possible trade suitors. Detroit is not surprising but Philly was a little unexpected. With all the demand for offensive tackles there could be multiple attempts to leapfrog to #11 or #12. Denver will likely have their pick of trade suitors.

Darrell Jackson Inked to One-Year Deal

2008-04-16T16:41:00.003-04:00

The Rocky Mountain News reports a one-year deal with Darrell Jackson is imminent assuming he passes his physical. The 29-year-old receiver has reached the 1000-yard receiving mark 3 times in his career, has surpassed the 60-reception mark 5 times, and has scored 50 touchdowns in an 8-year career. Jackson was lost to the black hole in San Francisco in 2007 before being cut earlier this spring. He's had some durability issues, but a healthy D-Jack is among the premier wide receivers in the NFL today. The terms of his deal have not yet been disclosed.

Cherilus, Mendenhall Visit Broncos

2008-04-16T15:19:00.004-04:00

According to the Denver Post, Gosder Cherilus and Rashard Mendenhall are scheduled to visit the Broncos sometime this week. I tend not to put too much weight into these publicized visits, as teams like to put up a smokescreen before draft day; however, these two players make a lot of sense for Denver.

Halfback is arguably Denver's biggest need after defensive tackle in 2008. In this year's draft, Mendenhall--a pure one-cut back--is arguably the best available fit for Denver's scheme.

Cherilus is a powerful, mauling tackle who excels as a run blocker. He's mobile and has a huge wingspan. At 6'6", Cherilus has displayed difficulty anchoring against the pass rush. Largely for this reason, many think he'll be a career right tackle. This is a good fit for Denver, who already has adequate depth on the left side with incumbent Chris Kuper and last year's 3rd round pick Ryan Harris.

Latest Draft Stock Watch

2008-04-15T15:29:00.003-04:00

Pro Football Weekly just released their latest draft value chart. Please note that these draft values are based on their assessment of where a player will be drafted and not necessarily a hierarchy of the best talents. In order of Denver's principle needs in this year's draft, here are some thoughts:

Defensive Tackle: Athyba Rubin has solidified himself as a late 3rd-rounder, meaning Denver would likely have to put together a trade to move up to select him. Letroy Guion, a player I've tagged "most likely to be drafted by Denver" has moved to the top ten picks in round 4, where Denver happens to have a draft pick.
Running Back: Jonathan Stewart has skyrocketed into the top 10 picks. Should he be there at 12, I would be shocked if Denver passed on him. Not only is he a good fit for our scheme, he's got great size, speed, and would fill an instant need in the return game. Felix Jones has solidly moved himself into the first round. Jones is a great pass blocker, a fantastic kick returner, he has soft hands, and he's got world-class speed. He lacks the size to be an every-down back in the NFL, but as a 3rd-down back, receiver, and kick return specialist, he's got tremendous value. Rashard Mendenhall still sits right around #12; he's a pure zone rusher and has the size to be an every-down running back. He's another possibility.
Offensive Tackle: Clady and Williams have both dropped considerably. Clady--once considered a top eight pick--has slipped a bit and may be available when Denver selects 12th. To justify Albert, Otah, or Williams, Denver would likely want to move down a few picks. Clady is arguably the best-fit tackle for Denver's zone blocking scheme. Should he fall to us at 12, I think they'd strongly consider selecting him despite our youth at the position.
Wide Receiver: Devin Thomas has solidified himself as the top wide receiver available. He could go as early as #11. Limas Sweed maintains pole position over Desean Jackson around #20. Jackson should be around much longer. Malcolm Kelly has plunged to the middle of the 2nd round after his outburst last week and his marajuana admissions. Earl Bennett has plunged to the bottom of the 3rd round. If he slips into round 4, I think he's a good value; however, I still think he's a little high in round 3.
Strong Safety: There are zero safeties projecting into the first round this year. If Denver covets Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan, both should be there with our second pick. This is not a deep safety class so the drop off is precipitous.
Inside Linebacker: Jerrod Mayo has leapfrogged all prospects in this category; although, he probably doesn't translate to MLB in the NFL. He's more of a WLB type given his size and skill set. Curtis Lofton has moved himself firmly ahead of Dan Conner, but neither figures to be a first round pick. There has been some speculation that San Francisco will grab Lofton with their top pick, but that speculation appears to be waning. Lofton looks like he could slip to us in round 2 and would receive my nod for the best prospect available. I hope we draft him. Jonathan Goff is astonishingly listed at the bottom of round 6. I'd be happy if Denver spent any second-day pick on him.

That sums up our principle needs. Check out the article for a full breakdown!

Broncos 2008 Schedule Released

2008-04-15T13:18:00.003-04:00

Here it is:

@ Oakland (MNF)
Vs. San Diego
Vs. New Orleans
@ Kansas City
Vs. Tampa Bay
Vs. Jacksonville
@ New England (MNF)
BYE
Vs. Miami
@ Cleveland (TNF)
@ Atlanta
Vs. Oakland
@ New York Jets
Vs. Kansas City
@ Carolina
Vs. Buffalo
@ San Diego

I have a couple of comments:

Our schedule is not that tough. Our opponents average 7.1 wins last year. Controlling for our anemic division, our opponents average 7.6 wins. Not bad.
The first seven games leading up to our week 8 bye are brutal. Over the stretch, Denver plays teams who averaged 8.85 wins. Kansas City, New Orleans, and Oakland are the only non-playoff teams on the schedule; however, the games against Oakland and Kansas City are both on the road and New Orleans is arguably the team to beat in the NFC this year.
Like in 2004, we play all three Florida teams this year; however, this time all three games are at home and none occur in September. Shanahan has played Florida teams poorly in his career, particularly when on the road. Arguably, this is because weather conditions make cramping a huge game-day issue. Quentin Griffins fumble on a -1 yard carry to setup a game-winning field goal didn't help in 2004. Olindo Mare's career-best 55-yard game winner didn't help much later that same season.
Only 3 away games are against teams that had winning records last year: San Diego, New England, and Cleveland. Including these three, our away opponents averaged 7.5 wins. Four of these teams were 4-12.

Overall, I think we made out pretty well. With our hardest games at home, I expect Denver to finish at least .500 next season; however, don't be surprised if we start 3-6. After the Cleveland game, things get pretty easy.

Sammy Parker Signs Minimum Deal

2008-04-15T11:52:00.003-04:00

The Denver Post reports that Sammy Parker signed a 1-year deal for the league minimum plus a $40k signing bonus. It appears that Denver thinks highly enough of Parker to give him a shot to make the team this spring. If he fails to make the cut, the cap loss is nominal. In the event that Parker blossoms into a quality player, he comes at a great price.

Something tells me D-jacks will cost a pretty-penny more...

Signalizing Selvin Young's Success

2008-04-15T09:03:00.004-04:00

Mile High Report has a fantastic breakdown of rushing metrics for Broncos RB Selvin Young. In it, author super7 argues that Selvin Young boasted the leagues 4th best yards per touch (YPT) in the NFL last season. Both his logic and his methodology are agreeable; I think this is a meaningful statistic. I am, however, going to play devil's advocate in this article, arguing instead that Selvin Young is not only unfit to be an every-down starter, but also that he isn't a long-term solution as a third-down back.

What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.

A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.

Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:

Power Success: This statistic is the percentage of 3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 runs which resulted in a first down or touchdown. Ranked 32nd, Denver was the absolute worst team in the league in this category. In short, our power running game is nonexistent. Historically speaking, Denver's power success percentage has been dominant--typically in the 60's.
Stuffed: This is the percentage of run plays which resulted in zero gain or a loss of yards. Denver was average in this category and ranked an unimpressive 20th in the league. Again, this is indicative of our lousy power running game. In the 2000's, Denver ranked no less than 5th in this category until last year, when we dropped to 15th. We haven't recovered.
10+ Yard Plays: This is the number of plays that go for 10+ yards. Last season, 23% of Denver's rushing plays were of this variety. This is really the statistic that tells the story of Selvin Young. In 15 games last season, he had 8 runs for 10+ yards (7 of them for 20+) and 6 receptions for 10+ yards. These 14 plays accounted for exactly 1/3rd of Selvin Young's total scrimmage yards last season.

Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.

Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:

Defensive Value-Over-Average (DVOA): Adjusting for opponent run defense, this metric measures how much better this running back performed than average. Because a player can be worse than average, this value can be negative. In this category, Selvin Young is ranked 24th and is 11.2% better than average. Not surprising (likely for reasons discussed earlier), a host of other third down backs like Kenny Watson, Marion Barber, and Laurence Maroney litter the top of this list.
Success Rate: For every run, a player either succeeds or he doesn't. The definition of success is different for each down and distance. Selvin Young is a paltry 40th ranked in this category with 43% success. Travis Henry is ranked 27th.

Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:

"A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage."

Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.

As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.

If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.

Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.

Rising and Falling Draft Stock

2008-04-14T11:17:00.006-04:00

The Sporting News just launched an update on rising and falling draft prospects. Among the risers was Michigan State WR Devin Thomas and Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Both players are likely available at #12 and both positions are highly coveted in this year's draft. This is probably a good situation for Denver.

Another player on the move is Arizona State Center Mike Pollack. Pollack is probably the top center available in this year's draft. The biggest knock on him is lack of elite strength; however, at 300 lbs, his 5.01 40-time is solid. Assuming he's still around in round 4, he's a strong draft candidate for Denver, who's blocking style relies more on speed, finesse, and technique than brute strength.

Restricted Free Agent Period Ends

2008-04-14T10:17:00.004-04:00

On Friday, the restricted free agent period ended with Dominique Foxworth, Karl Paymah, and Hamzah Abdulla still wearing Broncos uniforms. Paymah and Abdulla are going to need solid training-camp performances to keep their jobs. Foxworth is a lock to make the team. As you may recall, I'm a card-carrying member of the Dominique Foxworth fan club. He'd be a huge loss to the team, both on the field and in the locker room. I'm glad we managed to keep him for at least another season.

Its worth noting that only 4 out of over 100 restricted free agents switched teams this year. Among them: Center Chris Myers in a trade from Denver to Houston.

CORRECTION! Kyle from BroncoTalk.net kindly informed me that I missed the boat on this article! Apparently the RFA period ends this Friday rather than last Friday. Let's hope my article is prescient rather than just plain incompetent!

Cowboys Looking Past Pacman

2008-04-14T10:01:00.002-04:00

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Cowboys appear to have moved on after a failed bid to acquire suspended Titan's CB Pacman Jones. According to the article, the Cowboys are targeting a cornerback or a wide receiver in the first round of April's draft. They have also expressed interest in putting together a trade for a top-shelf receiver such as Arizona's Anquan Boldin, Cincinnati's Chad Johnson, or Detroit's Roy Williams.

Jerry Jones looks like hes on tilt a little bit with draft day fast approaching and no audacious maneuvers to his credit. The probability that he does something stupid increases with each passing day.

Could this be a serendipitous development for the Broncos? Dallas makes a likely trade suitor given Shanahan's long history with Wade Phillips. At #12 in the draft, big names like Devin Thomas, Limas Sweed, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Mike Jenkins are still on the board. Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Washington and Philly figure to be in the market for a wide receiver; Houston, Arizona, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay are in the market for help at cornerback. All of these teams stand between Dallas the top CB/WR's in this year's draft. Don't be surprised to see Denver move to 22nd overall for an extra first-day pick.

Broncos Evaluating Several Free Agents

2008-04-14T09:22:00.003-04:00

According to the Denver Post (here and here), the Broncos are considering a number of free agents to fill roster needs. Here's a list:

Mike Vanderjagt, K: The infamous choke artist and locker room cancer from the Colts who also happens to be the most accurate of all time is seeking employment. After being unceremoniously dumped by the Colts, Vanderjagt couldn't last one season with the Cowboys. I doubt you'll find a more enigmatic player at a more mundane position in NFL history. I've made no secret about my disdain for Vanderjagt in the past. At 38, why deal with this guy? I'd rather take my chances with the 23-year-old Prater.
Darrell Jackson, WR: Set to turn 30 this season, Darrell Jackson is perhaps a hamstring injury shy of putting together a dominant NFL Career. After finally playing to his potential in 2003 and 2004, Jackson has missed 30% of his games to injury the last 3 years. After 2 injury plagued seasons, Seattle finally gave up on Darrell Jackson who then journeyed to division rival San Francisco. Despite appearing in 15 games last year, Jackson narrowly ousted RB Frank Gore for the teams 3rd leading receiver, behind Arnaz Battle and Vernon Davis. In his defense, San Francisco was awful last season; however, I'm unconvinced that Jackson's asking price will be commensurate with his value as a 4th receiver. My guess is that this doesn't happen and that we are better off as a result.
Samie Parker, WR: In 2 years as a starter in Kansas City, Parker failed to log more than 72 receiving yards in any game and had only 3 touchdowns. He's a small receiver with great speed, but he never developed into an elite route runner and he doesn't have great ball skills. After 4 years in Kansas City, the Chiefs dumped him. To his credit, Herm has run every Vermeil-type speedy receiver out of down in favor of 6'3" behemoths. Parker doesn't strike me as a guy who makes any teams 53-man roster, but he's an inexpensive player who has some intriguing athletic capabilities. If he signed a near-minimum deal with nothing guaranteed, he'd add some competition at training camp with the possibility of making the team.
Mitch Berger, P and Mike Barr, P: Both are journeyman punters; both are 30 or older; both played for the Cardinals last year; and both are decidedly average. This looks like some training camp competition for Paulescu. I don't expect either to be wearing a Broncos uniform in September.

That's everything!

Rating Denver's 5-Year Draft Performance

2008-04-13T16:31:00.004-04:00

Pro Football Weekly just finished rating the draft performance of every NFL team from 2003 to 2007. The term "unmitigated disaster" is used to describe Denver's result. Over the 5-year stretch, Denver only has 5 starters to show for themselves--Marshall, Cutler, Dumervil, D.J. Williams, and Scheffler. All but Williams was drafted in 2006. By comparison, San Diego has fourteen starters from the last 5 drafts, including 6 pro bowlers. Sheesh! Ted Sundquist might have been just a fall guy, but there's no question that something needed to change in Denver. Our 2006 draft was arguably the best in Shanahan's tenure; let's hope we can build on this short-term success in two weeks.

Denver a Miserable Sports City?

2008-04-13T16:14:00.004-04:00

According to Forbes Magazine, the answer is "yes." In a list of the top 10 most 'miserable sports cities,' Denver was ranked 7th. Contributing to this dubious distinction was our anemic post-season record and lack of championships. Losing the Rockies (NHL) was another blemish.

The Broncos--AFC Champs in 1 out of 6 seasons since 1977--are certainly a huge bright spot here, although they don't seem to get much credit in Forbes rating system.

Denver's Crowded Depth Chart

2008-04-13T12:01:00.002-04:00

ESPN's John Clayton recently derided NFL owners for failing to increase the roster limit from 80 to 86 players. In it, he notes than Denver currently has 88 players on their roster, including our 9 draft picks later this month. The implication is simple: some pinks slips are going to get handed out before camp.

Mile High Report contributor MattR recently provided a great breakdown of our current roster. In it, he categorizes players as 'locks', 'probable', or 'on the bubble.' There are some interesting names on the list. In particular, if Denver adds some fresh faces at safety, cornerback, wide receiver, running back, or defensive end, there could be some surprise cuts when the rosters are trimmed in August.

Dissecting Denver's Pass Protection

2008-04-12T13:59:00.007-04:00

Headed in to week 15 last season, Denver had a disappointing 6-7 record. In a road stretch against Houston (on TNF) and San Diego, getting back to .500 to dampen our disappointment weighed heavy on the minds of Broncos fans. Disaster struck. Denver was walloped in both games as Cutler constantly succumbed to pressure; sacked 9 times, Denver's offensive line seemed incapable of keeping our franchise quarterback upright. The timing of this traumatic stretch seems to have taken an inexorable toll on Broncos fans: offensive line is largely viewed as the principle need of the organization. Echoing the sentiment of many fans, one Rocky Mountain Fever commenter recently argued the following:

"I have to disagree with your false comfort regarding our O-line. They were absolutely dominated in multiple occasions (Texas, SD x2, Green Bay, Chiefs, Raiders and Detroit) and had Cutler throwing off of his back foot all season. We need to follow the success of past Super Bowl champion teams (ie Gary Zimmerman) and build around our franchise QB...I am not at all comfortable with our O-line situation when the most important position's current choices are a natural Guard, 3rd round pick with no playing experience and an undrafted Pears who failed at the RT spot last year." -the1one

With the most talented crop at offensive tackle the NFL has seen in years, it seems logical that we'd grab the top guy in the first round, right? Well, as I've argued many times, I don't think that's the solution. Far and away, the largest criticism of my opinion is that Denver's offensive line is an ineffective pass blocking unit. In this article, I'm going to evaluate the performance of our offensive line from a statistical standpoint and make some inferences about the strength of our unit.

There are some difficulties in evaluating the sacks a given quarterback suffered in a given season. First, not all quarterbacks play all 16 games. Second, some systems--like Philadelphia--will pass the ball 65% of the time; others--like Denver--tend to be a little more run heavy. Given these tendencies, there are fewer opportunities to sack a quarterback in the latter vs. the former. To normalize these concerns, I decided to focus on two statistics: sacks per game and attempts per sack (aka "sack rate"). Of these two, attempts per sack is perhaps the most useful because it is the closest thing to a sack rate we can decipher using simple statistics. To simplify the list, I only included Quarterbacks who made at least 8 starts and at least 200 pass attempts. Here's the data:

You can also download a .pdf version here and a spreadsheet with all regression results here.

Looking at these numbers, a couple of things become clear:

Cutler's pass protection was not abysmal last year, as some have argued, but rather only very average. He ranked 15th in attempts/sack and 17th in sacks/game. I might point out, however, that when controlling for the horrendous meltdown in weeks 15 and 16, Cutler was sacked only 1.3 times per game or once every 22 pass attempts. These adjustment catapult Cutler into the top 10 in both categories.

I suspect the reflexive reaction of naysayers will be to claim that the poor performance coincides with the injuries sustained to the offensive line (and by extension that we can expect to get worse, without upgrading in the draft). That's simply not true. Lepsis, Nalen, and Hamilton were all long gone by mid-October. Over the next 10 weeks, Denver faced 8 of the top 15 pass rushes (5 of them top 10) in the NFL. In all but those two games, the offensive line play was exceptional, allowing no more than 2 sacks in any game.
While the list of sack rate leaders is top heavy with pro bowlers, there certainly are some exceptions to this trend. By far worst on the list, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked once every 6.8 pass attempts (more than thrice a game) despite boasting the leagues second-best QB rating. Despite having Walter Jones pass blocking, Matt Hasselbeck hit the turf more than his 28 touchdowns and 91.4 passer rating might suggest. David Garrard, despite throwing only 3 interceptions and boasting a 102.2 passer rating, was also sacked at a higher rate than Cutler.

Thus, being average in these metrics is arguably not an unmanageable situation. As the1one points out, however, in a division with Jared Allen, Sean Merriman, and perhaps Vernon Gholston, Denver might have to take the left tackle position a little more seriously than the "average" team. That's fair criticism; but I'm not sure that convinces me we should spend 12th-pick money on an answer--or that the answer isn't necessarily on our roster.

Next, I want to take a look at some qualitative data on the source of our sack totals. Let's start with some data; here's a list of every player that sacked Jay Cutler in 2008:

BUF DT James McCargo: 1.0 sacks
OAK DT Gerrard Warren: 1.0 sacks
OAK S Michael Huff: 1.0 sacks
JAC DRE Reggie Hayward: 1.0 sacks
IND DRE Dwight Freeney: 1.0 sacks
PIT ILB Jerome Harrison: 1.0 sacks
PIT LOLB Lamar Woodley: 1.0 sacks
GNB DLE Aaron Kampman: 3.0 sacks
DET DT Shaun Rogers: 1.0 sacks
DET LOLB Ernie Sims: 0.5 sacks
DET DLE Jared Devries: 0.5 sacks
KAN RDE Jared Allen: 1.0 sacks
TEN FS V. Fuller: 1.0 sacks
CHI DRE Adwale Ogunleye: 2.0 sacks
OAK DLE Jay Richardson: 1.0 sacks
KAN DT Tambia Hali: 1.0 sacks
HOU DRE Mario Williams: 3.5 sacks
HOU DRE N.D. Kalu: 1.5 sacks
SDG LOLB Shaun Phillips: 1.0 sacks
SDG DLE Igor Olshansky: 1.0 sacks
SDG DRE Luis Castillo: 1.0 sacks
SDG SS Clinton Hart: 1.0 sacks
MIN ROLB Ben Leber: 1.0 sacks
(bold-type players faced Denver after Lepsis's season-ending injury)

Players in bold are those that logged sacks after Lepsis was lost against Jacksonville. Again a couple of things stand out:

Only 9 of Cutler's 27 sacks were allowed to defensive right ends. 5 of these were delivered by Mario Williams and his backup N.D. Kalu. Clearly that game was an abomination; however, don't discount the possibility that it was also an anomaly. Denver faced 11 of the top 15 pass rushes in the league last season. Despite this, our sack totals are pretty average. The list of right ends that managed to bring Cutler down:

Dwight Freeney (1)
Adwale Ogunleye (1)
Mario Williams (3.5)
Luis Castillo (1)
N.D. Kalu (1.5)
Jared Allen (1)

It's hard to get upset about that list. Some of these guys are going to get their sacks no matter who you have back there.
Here's a breakdown of sacks allowed by DT, LRE, and SS/LB/CB:

DT: 4 sacks
LRE: 5.5 sacks (3.0 by Aaron Kampman)
SS/LB/CB: 8.5 sacks (nobody has more than 1.0 sack)

This data seems to argue that we were most susceptible against the blitz. To me, this is a gleaming endorsement of our need to draft a capable pass-blocker at running back, not at tackle. Travis Henry was supposed to be that guy; when he's healthy, maybe he is, but I certainly didn't see it last year and have considerable doubts about his durability headed into 2008.

There's no doubt that Denver will address their need for offensive line depth on draft day. The popular assertion that Denver will reach for a tackle in the first round based on a perceived positional need lacks historical, statistical, or qualitative credibility. A bigger need may ultimately be the selection of a third-down back with the versatility to serve as a potent offensive weapon and a capable pass protector.

In two weeks, we shall see...

Saturday Morning Miscellany

2008-04-12T09:51:00.008-04:00

Once you choke through a painful lead section which juxtaposes Chad Johnson and Brandon Marshall in nauseating fashion, Mike Klis had a couple of interesting things to say this morning; however, the triviality of what follows is symptomatic of a media starved for material as we impatiently wait for the 2008 NFL Draft to begin in two weeks. Isn't it a shame we don't have some tantalizing headlines to carry through a difficult time?

Marcus Thomas writes a bad check. . . to his mother!

Brandon Marshall recants: McDonald's bag was the true culprit; Marshall sues.

Elway assaulted in dark alley, blames Cutler.

Sundquist on Shanahan: "He must be stopped"

Okay, Klis actually had some things worth mentioning. Here they are:

Apparently Texans Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan and father Mike aren't talking right now. The Texan's--who are seven picks removed from Denver on April 26th--feel their draft needs are so similar to Denver's in this years draft that Kyle doesn't want to tip their hand. Consequently, Mike and Kyle have agreed not to talk to each other until May.
Former Broncos ILB Al Wilson balked at a contract offer from the Cleveland Browns for the league minimum. According to the article, Wilson feels his pro bowl resume warrants more consideration than $730,000.

In defense of Chief Asshole and mediocre Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, Norv Turner had the following to say:

"Philip took some heat over some things, yelling from the sideline . . . which was silly," Chargers coach Norv Turner said. "One shot of a guy, people get this opinion, which is so far from the truth. Philip's one of the most grounded people you're ever going to be around."

"One shot," eh? Did anyone see the Colts playoff game last year? Make no mistake about it Broncos fan, Rivers is to Cutler like Brian Bosworth was to Elway. And like Elway, it will be Cutler who laughs last. Burn this into your memory, so that you are utterly remorseless the next time we destroy the Chargers on the football field:

That's all I've got this morning. Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Some Housekeeping Issues

2008-04-12T00:00:00.003-04:00

I wanted to apprise you of some recent changes made to Rocky Mountain Fever:

The blog has moved to the domain www.rockymountainfever.net. This dramatically expands my options with regards to the scope and content of the site. As the site develops, your feedback is invaluable. Please don't hesitate to share your ideas with me.
My email address has changed to michael@rockymountainfever.net. You are always welcome to send questions, comments, feedback, links, etc. Please feel free to contact me.
All posts have been meaningfully labeled to add an extra navigation tool. I've tried to limit these to player positions, titles, incumbent or retired player names, team names, and some broad categories like "Broncos Greats" and "Videos." In some respects, I've been learning on the fly, so it took me a bit to get this right. A labels section has been added to the site; hopefully this will make navigation a little easier.

That's about it. I'm overwhelmed by the interest this site has garnered in less than a month's time. It's an honor to have such a great readership. I hope you'll continue to monitor this blog as the site grows. Thank you!

Denver to Draft...Sweed?

2008-04-11T20:33:00.006-04:00

The first year I subscribed to ESPN the magazine, I was overjoyed to open my mailbox and see their latest novella of sports geekiness. The Mag was both thick and chock full of intriguing content. When I get it today, I glance at the cover, scoffing at its inept weight and waning thickness, wondering why I pay so much for so little. It's usually neglected outright unless I find myself short on reading material on my way to the porcelain palace.

Imagine my surprise to thumb through the pages of the April 21st Edition (adorned with a picture of McFadden with his "D-Dawg, Bustin' Loose" tattoo") and actually find some interesting draft content. First off, a poll of ESPN-surfers was conducted to see how popular perception stacked up with McShay and Kiper. McShay thinks Denver grabs OT Jeff Otah; Kiper argues for OLB Keith Rivers (a likely pick given his overall value, in my opinion). About 50% of those polled felt Denver would draft an OT; 30% voted for Williams while 19% voted for Clady. Surprisingly, a whopping 40% thought Denver would draft WR Limas Sweed.

If you follow the logic that Denver should take the best athlete available--regardless of their position--guys like Sweed, Rivers, or even Mike Jenkins make a lot more sense than reaching for a tackle. Realizing this is a non-scientific poll of anonymous web users, I was nonetheless shocked to see such a strong consensus--particularly given all the OT hype out there.

Another interesting article released a recalibrated draft pick value chart based on the work of economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey, who wrote an NBER working paper entitled, "Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL." The revised pick values are a dramatic shift from the mainstream tables wherein a team has to trade the farm to move from #12 to #1. How much different are they? Let's put it this way: to move from #12 to #1, Denver would have to part with a late 5th rounder.

Sound absurd? Well, when you consider the sizable contract you have to pay out to these top picks coupled with the enormous risk the selector undertakes, it's perhaps more of a curse than an advantage to pick first. It simply doesn't add up. This probably explains why there are so many more teams trying to move down than move up.

I'd love to give you a copy of the new draft values, but seeing that several sites claiming to host them already have them down, I think I'll pass. I'd rather not get sued. But if you have insider access or get ESPN The Mag, be sure to look for it.

Gumbel Ousted as TNF Announcer

2008-04-11T20:13:00.004-04:00

ESPN is reporting that Bryant Gumbel has "given up" his role as play-by-play announcer for the NFL network. In case you didn't notice last season, Gumbel sucked worse than Mark Mangino at a soccer tournament. Good riddance.

Cris Collinsworth somehow managed to keep his job. Go figure.

Embarrassing DP Article

2008-04-11T16:39:00.003-04:00

Okay, I know I've probably spent all my Denver Nuggets capital for one month at a Broncos blog, but this is too funny. Someone please send this guy an email and tell them the Nuggets already won this game (last night).

2008 Draft Pivotal for Broncos?

2008-04-11T12:58:00.003-04:00

SI's Don Banks argues that the Broncos have more riding on this year's draft than any other team in his latest article. The material seems a bit subjective, but he wasn't short on quality analysis. Finding a solution along the defensive line interior was purported to be our most pressing need, followed by an upgrade at offensive tackle and perhaps a second-round receiver. The next 4 teams (in order) were Philly, Atlanta, Dallas (??) and Miami. It's an interesting read.

Robertson Deal Appears Imminent

2008-04-11T12:46:00.004-04:00

Scouts.com is reporting that the Broncos and Jets have nearly completed a deal that would send defensive tackle Dwayne Robertson to Denver. According to an anonymous source, Denver will reportedly give up two of its five draft picks between rounds 4 and 6 to complete the deal.

Two picks? This makes me cringe. There's no question Denver needs immediate help along the defensive line but I think there are better options available with those picks. Between Robertson's bad knees and his failure to develop into the kind of talent his 4th-overall draft selection portended, this seems like a hefty fee.

Let's hope both picks are from day 2 of the draft.

All's Quiet on the Western Front

2008-04-11T11:53:00.008-04:00

Today is shaking out to be a break in the action for Broncos news. With the draft only 2 weeks away, its probably the calm before the storm. There's a bright side: I haven't had to choke through a single article pertaining to the Elway-Cutler-Marshall love triangle. Maybe my rant yesterday has the media doing a couple extra Hail Mary's this Friday a.m. Okay, okay, my head's not that big.

Did anyone catch the Nuggets-Warriors game last night? Holy J.R. Smith Batman! J.R.'s been more of a pariah since arriving in Denver than star. He was suspended for 3 games last season due to an assault allegation, his friend mysteriously died in his SUV, he was at the center of a brawl with the Knicks for which he was suspended 10 games, and he was benched by George Karl in game 4 of last years playoffs. The Hornets gave up on Smith because of his emotional volatility and immaturity.

What do you expect when you draft a child in the first round? Smith was among nine 18-year-olds taken in the 2004 NBA draft. Did you think the kid would come out and immediately light-up the league? All excuses aside, he seems to be getting the message. Since the all-star break, Smith has shot a whopping 49% from 3-point land and averaged over 15-points per game.

Thinking playoffs, Smith's emergence could very well be the scorer Denver needs to make a deep run in June. With no formidable perimeter shooter on the roster, teams like San Antonio are able to dismantle Carmelo and AI. I still don't think this team is built well enough to win an NBA championship, but a first round upset suddenly doesn't seem preposterous.

Thinking long-term, Smith is only 22-years old. Another 2-3 years of development could see him emerge as a franchise-type player in the NBA. Once a skeptic of Smith, I'm beginning to see why he's garnered so much attention. Smith has all the physical tools needed to be a top-shelf 2-guard in the NBA; the maturity seems to be coming with time.

In an era of high-school-aged NBA rookies, perhaps we are too hard and hold unreasonable expectations of professionals that are so young. I have loads of empathy for the seemingly-insurmountable pressure placed on a talent like Jay Cutler. Imagine if he were 18? I doubt he could take it. On this matter, I side with Mark Cuban, who is an outspoken proponent of NFL-style age restrictions on NBA draftees.

If the weather where you live is anything close to what we've got here in Richmond, VA, stop reading this and go outside! Have a great day!

Broncos a No-Show for Otah's Workout

2008-04-10T19:15:00.003-04:00

Denver was not among the teams present for OT Jeff Otah's workout today. According to Pro Football Weekly, Otah improved on some of his questionable combine scores with Kansas City, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Carolina standing court side. Given Chicago's apparent interest in drafting an offensive lineman, they could emerge as a trait suitor in the event that they want to leapfrog Carolina, who holds the pick separating the two.

How do you win a championship?

2008-04-10T15:03:00.005-04:00

40 seconds at a time... at least that's what Broncos VP of Public Relations Jim Saccomano has to say in his latest blog entry.

Broncos 2005 Draft Earns a C-

2008-04-10T14:24:00.003-04:00

ESPN channeling Scouts, Inc. just released an article looking back on the 2005 draft. Not surprisingly, Denver scores a C- for their efforts. Williams, Foxworth, and Myers all came out of this draft. Had it not been for the tragic shooting of Darrent Williams, I think we'd fare a little better. The selection of Maurice Clarett in the supplemental draft obviously influences this decision.

We certainly followed up with an A+ draft. The following year brought us Cutler, Marshall, Sheffler, Kuper, and Dumervil. Talk about a home run...

Elway's Distracting Comments Out of Line

2008-04-10T11:42:00.007-04:00

As I browse through my daily Broncos RSS feeds, my left eye twitches a bit every time I see another saga in the Cutler-Marshall soap opera in which so many of us have become enamored. I'm going to cut to the chase; here's the bottom line: Brandon Marshall behaved like an idiot, he's gonna be ready for training camp, its over. Get over it.

Let's retrace history a bit. Brandon Marshall admits to "slipping on a McDonald's bag" (a lie). The media--smelling one of the centuries stupidest lies--attack like piranha. Just to inject some ethos into this conversation, recall that I was sick of this fiasco on day one. Shortly thereafter, Woody Paige derides Marshall, telling him to "grow up." Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a big Woody Paige fan. He annoys me. But to me, this comment was right on the money. To which Marshall responds in tabloid fashion. Yada, yada, yada...

So what exactly is Jay Cutler supposed to do? Does a team leader defend a guy who just showed up to a DUI hearing in an arm cast? The answer is simple: it's a lose-lose. If he defends Marshall he's not a leader; if he criticizes him, he's too outspoken. Really, I think Cutler spoke eloquently. His reaction was pretty much what you'd expect.

When did John Elway become a part of this conversation? Here were his recent comments on the issue:

"I was surprised to hear it, actually," Elway said Wednesday during his Colorado Crush Arena Football League news conference. "If that's what Jay feels like he needs to comment on, then he needs to do that. I mean, personally, I would have done it to (Marshall). To me, as teammates — even though I've tried to settle things in the press, looking back over the years, it's not been the right way to do it."

Is it just me or do these comments stink of hypocrisy? The message here is "always criticize privately." Oh really, John? I cannot side with the apologists here who will say that Elway is "just a guy" with every right to voice his opinion. I don't buy that. Elway is more than just a former player; he's an institution. In some ways, he's a euphemism for the whole organization. As a leader, an institution, and perhaps a future owner, I would think he'd be less incendiary.

One could argue that it would be less damaging for Bowlen himself to criticize Cutler. Suppose Isiah Thomas were to criticize the coaching ability of Phil Jackson. Would Jackson care? Would anybody listen? Now suppose Alan Greenspan--a (perhaps unwarranted) world-renowned monetary policy hero--steps in front of a microphone and criticizes Ben Bernanke in the middle of a financial crisis (sound familiar?). Bernanke's job just got a whole lot harder. How irresponsible.

Some of my fondest childhood memories are of seeing John Elway's brilliance on the football field. I'm as big an Elway fan as you'll find; but no matter how I rationalize, I simply disagree with his tact in this situation. I think he should heed his own advice and criticize Cutler behind closed doors. Cutler already works hard enough to stay out of Elway's shadow; give the kid a break.

Of course, if the media didn't proliferate this sickeningly-sensationalized soap opera, its reverberations wouldn't be so frustrating. In an age where the most outrageous journalists seem to garner the most 'clicks', this seems to be what sells. Ultimately, the fans have the power to end the conversation: stop reading.

Speaking of Cutler criticism; this video is some of the best criticism of Cutler I've seen. Enjoy!

Jay_Cutler_2007_Video.wmv

2008 PFW Prospect Rankings Released

2008-04-10T10:45:00.008-04:00

Pro Football Weekly just released their pre-draft rankings of over 1,100 NFL players. I tend to consider these rankings a little more credible than ESPN's--who contract the majority of their content from Scouts, Inc.--or Yahoo! Sports--who contract all of their content Rivals.com. PFW is typically the last on the scene, but they seem to value quality above timeliness.

I wasn't overly-surprised by many of their rankings. Their "speed" numbers are a little perplexing given that they don't jive with any of the combine resources I tend to look at. There are also some interesting positional classifications, such as Quentin Groves and Cliff Avril being classified as outside linebackers while Vernon Gholston--another 3-4 defensive end--is classified as a defensive end. Also, I think its silly that Dan Connor would be classified as an outside linebacker while Jerod Mayo is listed at inside linebacker.

Michigan State receiver Devin Thomas further solidifies his status as an early first day pick. Assuming Buffalo targets a receiver with their first pick, Denver may have the enviable position of trading up with the likes of Cincinnati--who could use an extra first-day pick or three--or trading down with a team like Tampa Bay, Minnesota, or Washington, who may want to leapfrog Chicago to grab the top receiver.

At defensive tackle, DeMario Pressley slips into the 5th round on this board. As honorable mention in my best-value DT's list, I might have to reconsider. Pressley isn't the ideal candidate to redress Denver's atrocious run defense, but he's hard to pass up for 5th-round money. The rest of my best value picks stayed where I predicted in my column. Denver may very well have the opportunity to grab both Bryant and Rubin in round 4. Let's hope they don't screw it up now that Sundquist is out of the way.

No safety projected as a first-round talent. Given the paucity of options at safety in this year's draft, that doesn't mean we won't see one go early. If Denver is confident one of their coveted safety prospects will be there, we may see them address this need in the second round. Assuming for a moment that Denver manages to trade down, that would leave them free to grab a guy like Curtis Lofton, a receiver, or maybe even a wildcard like CB Mike Jenkins. Stranger things have happened.

Dolphins Discussing Contract with Long

2008-04-09T19:59:00.003-04:00

In a rare break from Broncos coverage, I thought I'd mention that Miami is reportedly negotiating a contract with JAKE Long, although they still have some interest in CHRIS Long. Maybe the Rams will be off the clock by Friday...

Nate Jackson set to Return

2008-04-09T19:31:00.005-04:00

DenverBroncos.com is reporting that undrafted tight end Nate Jackson is 100% healthy after sitting out most of 2007 with a groin injury. Jackson has flashed decent ball skills; his health gives us some depth behind Tony Scheffler. There's a live interview at the bottom of the article. Does anyone else suspect that this guy gets picked on in the locker room a little bit?

Lofton's Draft Stock Rising

2008-04-09T15:49:00.003-04:00

Pro Football Weekly has moved Curtis Lofton ahead of Dan Conner in their top 5 linebackers column. At this point, it looks like--unless we move down on draft day--Lofton is probably out of reach. If you want to see some film on Lofton, visit my March column, "Manning the Middle."

SI Mock Draft

2008-04-09T14:07:00.004-04:00

SI's latest mock draft shows Denver drafting OG Branden Albert with the 12th overall pick later this month. Albert is an intriguing player given his versatility. Once again, the 'experts' seem to think Denver is eying offensive line talent in the first round.

Kiffin on Walker

2008-04-09T13:27:00.004-04:00

Here's a quote from a Raider's blogger who recently interviewed Lane Kiffin:

When I mentioned that Javon Walker would have his revenge on Denver in Week One, he said that the situation was much deeper than was released to the press.

Meaning: Walker hates the Donkeys and his hate runs DEEP. he will torch them in Week One. Fantasy Football players can go ahead and start him in the first week.

I left all the grammatical and punctuation errors in the quote for dramatic irony. We've got something for Walker's ass week 1; it's called Champ Bailey. That is, if he manages to limp on the field. Enjoy him, Raiders!

Denver's Nickel Package

2008-04-09T11:56:00.004-04:00

There was another interesting comment I wanted to mention in Legwold's mailbag column. Here's a quote:

So that said Bailey and Williams would likely be the two linebackers on the field in the nickel. Bailey, even with some knee troubles in his career, is still the kind of athlete people don't see very often.

Assuming this is true--which I invite you to comment if its not--there are several interesting insights we can garner from this. For one, this is a silver lining to the failed D.J. Williams experiment at middle linebacker. In 2006, D.J. typically sat out on the Nickel. A true weak-side linebacker, he wasn't considered a reliable pass defender. After a year in the middle, perhaps Denver's confidence in Williams seems to have increased.

In a related comment, this could be a telling sign of Denver's long-term vision of Niko at middle linebacker. Given that D.J. is not elite in pass coverage, its surprising to me that Niko wouldn't be filling this role. While inside linebackers typically sit out in the Nickel and Dime, there are certainly plenty of examples in the NFL where this isn't the case (e.g. Lofa Tatupa in Seattle). If true, this further supports my assertion that Denver will target Niko's successor at some point in this year's draft.

Or maybe Legwold just didn't think this comment through as much as I did. In any case, it will be interesting to see how our linebacker corp develops as the preseason progresses.

Offensive Line Insights

2008-04-09T10:21:00.004-04:00

Kyle from BroncoTalk recently commented that I'm perhaps a little too comfortable with Denver's current offensive line depth chart. In his weekly mailbag column, Jeff Legwold seems to agree. Legwold doesn't go as far as saying he things our line is in disarray, but his comments certainly aren't a gleaming endorsement of the starters:

But that's if [Shanahan] had to play a game right now. All that is, for the moment, is the announced first chance for everybody to keep those positions. He won't hesitate to change if he thinks something is amiss. But [Shanahan] also knows this is not a particularly good year for guards in the draft so immediate help would not be on the way from that avenue.

Certainly I'm willing to concede that Kuper and Pears aren't going to strike fear in the hearts of their AFC opponents--Jared Allen and Shawn Merriman in particular; however, no matter how hard I try, I simply cannot align myself with this thinking that Denver ought to grab the top offensive tackle available in this year's draft.

Zone blocking doesn't require you to have dominant athletes along the offensive line. Instead, you need heady players able and willing to execute proper technique. To be effective, great teamwork and chemistry are far more important than having the best athletes. Denver is blessed in that we already have the best zone blocking architect in the NFL: Rick Dennison (eat your heart out Alex Gibbs).

A look back at Denver's offensive line history overwhelmingly supports the argument that, to have an elite offensive line, we don't need to draft first round talent. Tom Nalen and Matt Lepsis are the poster childs of this theory; Nalen was a 7th round pick and Lepsis went undrafted. That's a far cry worse than incumbent tackle Chris Kuper, who was a 5th round pick in 2006. Denver currently starts a pair of 4th rounders at guard, and undrafted Erik Pears currently holds down the job at right tackle.

Shanahan's short list of lineman selected at the top of the draft have fared much worse. 20th-overall-pick George Foster held down the right tackle job for three years before finally being dumped on the always-incompetent Matt Millen and his Detroit Lions. Foster lasted 9 games last year before losing his job there. Ryan Harris was taken last year with a 3rd-rounder obtained from the Redskins; he currently sits behind Pears and Kuper on the depth chart. Does anyone remember Lennie Friedman? A 3rd-round center drafted from Duke, Friedman was converted to guard where he eventually gave Denver 22 starts. A career backup, Friedman spent several seasons in Washington before settling in Cleveland.

I agree that Denver does not currently possess adequate depth along the offensive line heading into 2008. Based on the players we do have, I think our immediate need is at guard rather than at tackle. With the questionable health of Ben Hamilton, it would seem prudent to add one or even two prospects via the draft.

Based on the preceding analysis, I obviously don't think the first round is the place to get this done. In fact, I would be outraged if Denver spent a 12th overall pick on an offensive lineman. Trading down to take a talent like Chris Williams might be palatable, but ultimately I think our first-day picks are better spent elsewhere.

All this said, the argument that I'm overly-optimistic about Denver's stock of offensive lineman is perhaps a valid one. I steadfastly believe that the system and the coaching are the solution at offensive line. We're already the envy of the league in that department. Let's hope it stays that way for years to come.

Sporting News Team Report

2008-04-08T21:43:00.003-04:00

The following link evaluates the Broncos and elicits some draft needs. Although there is absolutely no mention of our defensive deficiencies, this is probably the most balanced, informed draft preview I've read. Kudos to The Sporting News.

Keeping Things in Perspective

2008-04-08T21:05:00.005-04:00

A laymen fan writing in his diary at Mile High Report offers an insightful statistic on Denver's dominance as a franchise. Since 1978, only five teams have averaged more than 9 wins per season. Here they are:

Denver Broncos: 9.71
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.43
San Francisco 49ers: 9.21
Miami Dolphins: 9.14
Dallas Cowboys: 9.00

Sheesh! No wonder Broncos fans become so enraged at a 7-win season. Just for kicks, I thought I'd spot check a couple of other teams:

Arizona Cardinals: 5.3

Detroit Lions: 6.4

How about the "class of the AFC?"

San Diego Chargers: 7.8

Have we been spoiled by our success?

Draft Targets: The Vanderbilt Connection

2008-04-08T17:36:00.005-04:00

Fan euphoria surrounding the enormous potential of Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler has been a near-ubiquitous theme at blogs, message boards, and fan sites since we drafted him 11th overall in 2006. What's not to love? In 2007, Cutler tied Payton Manning for the 3rd fewest interceptions among 16-game starters, boasted a respectable 7.5 YPA, and completed over 63% of his passes. Given Denver's overwhelming success with the Vanderbilt alumni, it comes as no surprise to hear that Denver will take a serious look at Cutler's blind-side tackle Chris Williams and favorite target Earl Bennett.

I'd be lying if I said that I shared Broncos fans' infatuation with Bennett and Williams. I think the Williams is a top-shelf talent at tackle--particularly when one considers his competition; however, I'm not overly-excited about spending a 12th overall pick to grab him. Also, I disagree with the assertion that Denver has a desperate need for help at offensive tackle.

In Bennett's case, I don't see a player that evolves into a dominant NFL receiver. His build and technical competencies suggest that he could push a guy like Stokley out of the slot, but many doubt he has the speed to get consistent separation and he doesn't show much flash after the catch. He doesn't have the height to win battles for deep balls and doesn't have elite speed. Bennett's work ethic, character, and relationship with Cutler are intriguing, but ultimately I don't think there's enough to this guy to warrant second round consideration. In short, I like a lot of other receivers better.

Instead of Williams or Bennett, I am going to suggest that Denver takes a long look at another quarterback from Vanderbilt in this years draft. Namely, the quarterback of their defense, ILB Jonathan Goff. Goff is a mean, hard-hitting linebacker with outstanding range. There are zero off-the-field issues, injuries, or other baggage on his resume. Goff is a little stiff in interviews, but he's well spoken and intelligent. On the field, his energy is infectious.

Goff's combine workout bested all of his peers at inside linebacker. He was one of two players to complete the cone drill in under 7 seconds, he had the best time in the 60-yard shuttle, and he missed the best 20-yard shuttle time by 5/100th's of a second. Goff was the strongest inside linebacker with 28 reps, his broad jump was second best, and his 31.5" vertical was third best. Only Jerrod Mayo and Tavares Gooden bested his 4.68 40-time. You won't find a more well-rounded performance in this draft.

At 6'2" 245 lbs. Goff also has the distinction of being the biggest inside linebacker in this year's draft. Many scouts are concerned that he lacks ideal lower body strength. With a 6'2" frame, however, he has the ability to add additional mass. After adding Niko in the off season, Denver can certainly afford to give Goff at least year to pack on some muscle and contribute on special teams.

Goff is technically well rounded. He's a fantastic tackler and shows great closing speed. He takes efficient angles to the ball carrier and shows great lateral agility. In coverage, he's effective in read-and-react zone coverage. He had only 2 interceptions at Vanderbilt but displays above-average ball skills. He probably doesn't have the speed to be elite in man-to-man coverage and would probably struggle against AFC tight ends (further illuminating our need to find an elite strong safety).

From top to bottom, its hard to find a more complete option at middle linebacker available in this year's draft. Rivals has him rated the 100th best player in the draft, which makes him a 4th rounder; ESPN seems to think he'll go in the 6th; and Pro Football Weekly projects him at the bottom of the 6th round. Even for 4th round money, I think Goff is a steal on draft day. I still like Curtis Lofton as an overall prospect, but based on his draft position, Goff is a better value.

Here's a video of Goff for those who are interested:

Where's the Shana-hate, ESPN?

2008-04-08T14:25:00.005-04:00

Either Shanahan is on the hot seat or he's not! You can't have it both ways ESPN. Bill Williamson's latest article lists coaches and GM's whose jobs are hanging in the balance this April. Strangely, Shanahan is not even an honorable mention on the list. After all the Shana-hate ESPN has propagated, it seems like he'd be close to the top of this list, doesn't it?

Denver Considering Vanderjagt

2008-04-08T12:26:00.003-04:00

BroncoTalk is reporting that Denver is considering bringing in amazingly-accurate, locker-room-cancer Mike Vanderjagt. I think the fact that Denver isn't pursuing Vanderjagt more aggressively is portentous. My thoughts on the matter are well documented. I'd like to give this Prater kid a shot and take a flier on a 7th rounder to give us an option. While we're rebuilding, we may as well experiment with some long-term prospects.

Broncos Trading Down?

2008-04-08T09:45:00.004-04:00

Mike Klis is reporting that Denver is looking to trade down on draft day. He speculates Washington, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Houston, and Dallas are likely suitors for a deal. This is a prudent strategy, particularly if Denver is targeting a solution at offensive tackle, safety, or wide receiver (as is popularly reported), where the drop off in talent from #12 to #20 is minimal. If Denver can garner an additional first-day pick in such a deal, it would add some positional flexibility where we may currently feel locked into certain positional needs.

Kuper a Rising Star in Denver

2008-04-07T09:45:00.005-04:00

Pro Football Weekly's bi-weekly 'whispers' article had the following to say about 2006 5th-rounder Chris Kuper:

We hear Chris Kuper is the front-runner to fill the Broncos’ vacancy at left tackle created by the retirement of Matt Lepsis. Kuper can play guard or tackle, started 11 games last season and has quickly worked his way up the ladder since he was drafted in 2006. His rise is impressive, considering head coach Mike Shanahan generally stocks his line with more experienced players.

It looks like Pro Football Weekly is paying a little closer attention to the facts than rival ESPN. Kuper's emergence leaves us in decent shape at the offensive tackle position with Erik Pears a capable option on the strong side and last years 3rd-rounder Ryan Harris providing depth. Finding a replacement for the concussion-prone and soon-to-be-retired Ben Hamilton is arguably a bigger need than offensive tackle on draft day. Despite these easily-discernible facts, the geniuses at ESPN have decided Denver will reach for Jeff Otah rather than Chris Williams in the first round. Go figure.

ESPN's Assualt on Denver Continues

2008-04-07T08:47:00.006-04:00

ESPN just released their "On the Clock" preview of the Denver Broncos. To no surprise, the story basically parrots the rest of the Shanahan hate speech they've published since Sunquist's firing. Here's a summary of their gripes:

Ted Sundquist got fired and Shanahan is on "the hot seat."
Keary Colbert was a bust at Carolina and therefore he'll be a bust in Denver.
Matt Lepsis retired so our offensive line isn't good any longer.
Brandon Marshall is injured.
Denver brought in no noticeable free agents.
Our defensive line is abysmal against the run.
Niko is not a long term solution at middle linebacker.
Elam left town.

It looks like ESPN just summarized the headline of every big Broncos story since the Super Bowl. This is analysis? When Denver talks about a "youth movement," I think that means they build a team with those 9 draft picks in April rather than by signing free agents. There's no question the defensive line needs help and that Niko is probably a stop gap, but we aren't going to solve these problems by throwing money at the them. Obviously, Colbert is a gamble; this time last decade the media couldn't stop embellishing Denver with Eddie McCaffrey praise after he resurrected his career at Mile High. Lastly, who decided that Denver is depleted at offensive tackle? Last I checked, we had three young guys who all played capably at times during the injury-plagued 2007 season. When I look down our depth chart, offensive tackle is among the least of my concerns.

They leave us with this tidbit:

Broncos fans won't want to hear this, but they are closer to losing their grip on second place in the AFC West to Oakland than they are to dethroning the San Diego Chargers for the top dog in this division.

After spending $250 million ($50 million guaranteed) in free agency, Lane Kiffin better hope his Raiders finish second in the AFC. For that kind of money, they should be in the AFC championship. But they won't because the Raiders are--well--the Raiders. And Broncos will compete because they are--well--the Broncos. If ESPN shut down the hype machine for a bit and did some hard analysis, I think they might glimpse a bright future.

Redressing Denver's Defensive Line: Draft-Day DT's

2008-04-05T00:05:00.024-04:00

For Denver, there is arguably no greater draft-day need than defensive tackle. After a disastrous reformulation of the defensive line in '07, Denver has neither the personnel nor the depth to field a respectable run defense in 2008. After failing to find a solution in free agency, the upcoming NFL draft is our last opportunity to find a cure. Recommendations among Broncos faithful range from trading up on draft day to switching to a 3-4.

The good news is that Denver is chock full of talent along the defensive front; the bad news is that there are glaring defects in the chemistry of this group. Namely, Denver's defensive line is horrid against the run. To solve this problem, Denver should look to draft a run specialist, capable of defending multiple gaps and taking on multiple blockers. To understand why this is the case, I encourage you to read my recent post, "Triaging Denver's Defensive Line."

In this article, I'm going to reveal my best-value picks at defensive tackle available in this year's draft. Before I begin, its important that I clarify what is meant by best-value picks. There are two components to value: cost and benefit. A player drafted in later rounds carries a lower opportunity cost than those drafted earlier; additionally, the later a player is drafted, the smaller their contract. Thus, while Glenn Dorsey is arguably the "best" player in this year's draft, Denver's cost to draft him would be several draft picks and a huge contract, so he wouldn't likely be a "best value." In fact, I'll end the suspense right now and tell you that Dorsey isn't on the list.

Without further adieu, here are my best-value picks at defensive tackle in the upcoming draft:

#1: Athyba ("ah-TAH-ba") Rubin, Iowa St.: A massive, powerful lineman, Athyba is the perfect fit for Denver's lackluster run defense. Athyba put up an incredible 35 reps at the combine (tied for first) and turned in a respectable 40 time of 5.22. He is an anchor at the point of attack, shows great awareness, has the ability to take on multiple blockers, sheds blocks well, and shows tremendous lateral agility. Athyba isn't a great pass rusher, but excels at collapsing the pocket to disrupt the passing game. Athyba shows none of the character or motivation flags that seem to plague the defensive tackle position. Athyba's combination of size, athleticism, and maturity enable him to make an immediate impact on Denver's anemic run defense. Draft-day analysts predict Rubin will go anywhere from the 3rd to the 5th round. Assuming he goes in round 3, Rubin's value is off the chart. Of all DT's in this year's draft, Rubin is the best candidate to shore up Denver's defensive woes in 2008 and for years to come.

#2: Red Bryant, Texas A&M: At 6'4" 320lbs, Red Bryant wouldn't be a bad consolation prize if we missed out on Athyba Rubin in the draft (imagine if we took both in the 4th round). After amassing 20 bench-press reps at the combine, Red's draft stock plummeted amidst concerns about his strength; however, with all the 'pluses' Bryant has in his favor, one has to caution against throwing out the baby with the bath water. Assuming for a moment that his bench reps are an accurate sample of his strength, Bryant certainly has the frame to pack on some muscle. To add to this, Bryant has the intangibles needed to excel at the next level. To put it simply, Bryant is a football guy. On the field he's passionate, vocal, and possesses as never-ending motor. Off the field, he's a leader. The undisputed team captain of the '07 Longhorns, Bryant has zero character flags and a blue-collar work ethic. He'll never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL (although he did run a 5.0 40-yard dash), but Bryant has all the tools necessary to evolve into an elite interior run stuffer. He injured his ACL in 2006 and thus carries some durability risk; however, given his 3rd-round price tag he's a great value.

#3: Nick Hayden, Wisconsin: There's nothing sexy about Hayden; however, he also has no glaring defects either (unlike a lot of higher-rated DT's) Hayden will never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL, but as a gap defender he's a steal in the sixth round. At the combine this year Hayden did 34 reps to match his solid 5.2 40-yard dash time. Weighing only 291 lbs, Hayden already possesses elite strength. His massive 6'3" frame has plenty of room to add extra bulk. Hayden is an extremely hard worker, has zero character flags, and has no history of injury. In 2008, he would provide great rotational depth. If history is any indication of Hayden's future, he could easily blossom into an enviable starter in a 2-gap scheme.

#4: Letroy Guion, Florida: Guion is a project pick with a ton of upside. The biggest knock on Guion is his experience: he's leaving Florida after only one full season as a starter. Guion's athletic gifts leave little to be desired. He has great lower- and upper-body strength, fast hands, and an explosive first step. Guion is capable of developing an elite pass rush to match his effectiveness as a run defender. He works hard in the weight room and comes with zero character flags. Because he lack's experience, Guion's technique is raw and inconsistent. When he has been technically sound, Guion has been brilliant. As a 4th or 5th round value, a project like Guion comes at a low cost. This is a likely pick given Shanahan's willingness to throw away a third-rounder to grab Guion's teammate Jarvis Moss in the 2007 NFL draft.

#5: Sedrick Ellis, Southern California: I thought of listing my best-value picks in reverse order, but finally decided that putting Sedrick Ellis at #5 was suspenseful enough. I can already hear the rage from Ellis-obsessed Broncos fans. It's not a gimmick, mind you; a couple of weeks ago I probably wouldn't have listed him. Since then, he's slipped a bit. I think he's there at #9 for Cincinnati, and given the multitude of needs they suddenly have, trading out of this pick is a definite possibility. In this scenario, Ellis figures to cost us a fourth rounder and some change (maybe a fifth rounder or a 2009 pick). Making all these bold assumptions, Ellis is a great value; however, if Atlanta or Kansas City or New York suddenly fall in love with him, all bets are off. Ellis does have some experience at NT, but is primarily a 3-technique player. Regardless, a player this disruptive will consistently draw double teams in the NFL. Ellis possesses astonishing strength and a high football IQ. He has the potential to blossom into one of those rare talents that makes impact plays in any situation, run or pass. Despite these positives, there are some flags. Ellis has some durability concerns after fracturing his ankle his freshman year and undergoing arthroscopic surgery in 2006. Last season there was some swelling in his knee that had to be drained; however, he didn't miss any playing time as a result. Ultimately, Ellis isn't an ideal fit for our needs at defensive tackle, he comes with some risk, and he'll demand a huge paycheck if selected in the top 10. I wouldn't be saddened to see Denver trade up to draft him, but I do think there are a lot of better options available at a lower cost.

Notable, Left-Out Players:

DeMario Pressley, N.C. State: Pressley projects as a 3-technique pass rusher. Although probably physically capable of being a 2-gap defender, Pressley has an undisciplined drive to make the big play. The result is that his awareness is very poor. Still, he projects as a fourth rounder. For such a low price, Pressley isn't a bad risk. Despite being a less-than-ideal fit for Denver's immediate needs, Pressley is probably the 'honorable mention' out of this group.
Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State: Dorsey is a rare specimen who projects to dominate all phases of the game defensively. He would be a welcome addition to Denver's front four; however, the cost of acquiring Dorsey is prohibitive when on considers the draft picks we'd give up to get him. Without a third rounder, I'm not sure we could move high enough without sacrificing our first rounder next year. Given the price tag, that's an awfully big risk to take on one guy. I'd love to have Dorsey, but its just not in the cards.
Trevor Laws, Notre Dame: At 6'0" 301 lbs, Laws isn't getting any bigger. In his present condition, I don't believe he possesses the lower body strength to be effective from the interior in the NFL. Laws doesn't show the ability to anchor the line or bull rush his opponent to collapse the pocket. As a 3-technique player, Laws doesn't have elite speed. He's a technically impressive player with great lateral agility, he plays with passion, and he's a likable guy. Unfortunately, I don't see him developing into an elite defensive tackle in the NFL. If he lost 30 lbs and pushed his 40-time into the 4.6 range, I'd think he could play inside linebacker. Given that he's skyrocketing into the late first round, he's a very poor value in my book.
Pat Sims, Auburn: Let me preface this by saying, "I love this guys potential." I think Pat Sims could evolve into the best defensive tackle in this year's draft. The problem from Denver's perspective is that we are already top-heavy with this kind of talent. Our immediate need is to find a 2-gap defender and Sims is simply not that guy. At the combine he came in a tad over 5 seconds in the 40 and put up an unimpressive 20 reps on the bench press. He plays with a great motor and will likely be a great 3-technique tackle after he's added a little muscle to that 6'4" frame, but for 2nd round money, Sims is not a good solution for Denver.
Frank Okam, Texas: Okam has ideal size to play NT for a 3-4 defense in the NFL. You may have noticed my top 2 best-value picks were also NT prototypes, so I was tempted to put Okam on the list. What's more, Okam is probably a 4th or 5th rounder, which is pretty cheap. In the end, I couldn't stomach all of Okam's baggage. For one, he's had a host of nagging injuries during his tenure at Texas in addition to arthroscopic surgery in 2006. He showed up at the combine a whopping 347 lbs. This is all remarkably consistent with claims that Okam doesn't take his conditioning seriously. On the field, he undisciplined. Stamina issues result in inconsistent effort and he's susceptible to getting flagged. I see a guy who doesn't have the work ethic to compete long-term in the NFL. That being said, a healthy, hard-working Okam is a great fit for what ails the Broncos at present. Despite this, he's too risky to waste a pick on given the other options available in the draft.
Marcus Harrison, Arkansas: Harrison is a poor fit for a 2-gap scheme and comes with loads of character and durability flags. He was academically ineligible his freshman year and was arrested on felony drug charges in 2007. He's torn his ACL and cartilage in his knee. Despite playing the 3-technique, he's been extremely effective against the run in his tenure at Arkansas. Harrison is the closest thing to Marcus Thomas available in this year's draft. Denver doesn't another Marcus Thomas--on or off the field.
Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina: Balmer projects as a late first rounder. Were he available as a late-second round/third round talent (where I might add Denver doesn't have any picks), he would probably be on my list. Balmer is a gifted athlete who's had a lackluster college career. He was flat-out dominant (in the ACC?) his senior year after being either injured or unimpressive his first three seasons. A lot of Balmer's woes are probably attributable to bad coaching. The fact that he began producing upon Butch Davis's arrival is probably no small coincidence. Realistically, Balmer is probably a project player. He's likely too raw and inexperienced to immediately live up to his expectations. He may get there eventually, but for 1st round money, I think there are far better options available.
Dre Moore, Maryland: Dre is a fashionable pick after an impressive showing at the combine. Still, many are wondering where all that athleticism was on the football field last season? Dre is a 3-technique player who may be a better fit at defensive end in the NFL. He's a physically gifted athlete who needs to develop technique to succeed at the next level. He's a project player and a poor fit for Denver given our current stock of talented, young pass rushers.

Joyner on 2-Gap DT's

2008-04-04T14:22:00.003-04:00

For those of you who have ESPN Insider access, KC Joyner has a great write up on interpreting the effectiveness of a 2-gap tackle. This makes a great supplement to my recent article "Triaging Denver's Defensive Line."

In this article, Joyner dispels several myths. For one, he points out that an NT in a 3-4 defense is not really different than a 2-technique tackle in a 4-3. According to this logic, a 3-4 defense effectively plays the 4-3 a high percentage of the time. The definitional difference is that a true NT would line up at the 0-technique (nose to nose with the Center). In practice we know that this is rarely--if ever--true 100% of the time.

It would behoove Broncos fans trying to intellectualize the failings of our run game under Jim Bates to familiarize themselves with the nuances of these different positions and systems. As I've stated earlier, I'll be covering 2-gap options in this year's draft in the near future.

The State of the Backfield

2008-04-04T09:29:00.004-04:00

Jeff Legwold had an interesting write up on the possibility of Denver adding a running back via the draft.

Currently, the running back position is comprised of Travis Henry, Selvin Young, and Andre Hall. Henry--by far the oldest of the three--is the incumbent starter. As Legwold points out, barring a miraculous training camp, Henry's days as an every-down starter are probably over.

Second on the depth chart is Selvin Young. In fifteen games last season (only five starts), Young had a 20+ yard run or catch in eight of them. Receiving only 175 total touches, Young finished the year with close to 1000 total yards. Should Henry fall to injury or to old age, Young appears capable of carrying the rock.

Undrafted Andre Hall had a promising start to his career last season as well. In 5 games, Hall scored 2 touchdowns. In his lone start against Chicago, he totaled over 150 total yards and a touchdown.

In short, we are not wanting for depth at the running back position. Shanahan is undoubtedly scanning this year's draft class for a value pick; however, I think there is little reason to suspect that pick would come on the first day. I would be "okay" with Denver spending a pick on either Travis Mendenhall or East Carolina's Chris Johnson, but don't feel this is a critical need in this year's draft. Running backs have short careers and are more commodity-like than their popular perception indicates (see Clinton Portis). Players like Tomlinson or Dickerson are extremely rare exceptions; history tells us you don't need one of these guys to win a championship.

Far more important is the effectiveness of the offensive line. Adding a tackle via the draft wouldn't be imprudent; however, I think we are stronger at the position than the popular media seems to think. Drafting a pair of guards to replace the aging Montrae Holland and Ben Hamilton are a higher priority, in my opinion.

Vance Johnson's Personal Adversity Accelerates

2008-04-03T09:46:00.009-04:00

The Post Independent reports that Vance Johnson is having severe financial difficulties a year after his son's tragic death. On February 8th, Johnson had his car repossessed. Two weeks later, he was arrested for failing to appear in court for writing two bad checks. On March 28th, Wells Fargo initiated foreclosure proceedings against Johnson for failure to repay a $630,000 note on his home.

On September 9, 2006, Johnson's son Vaughn was killed instantly when his motorcycle collided with an SUV. Vaughn was a community college football star who expected to transfer to the University of Colorado to play football in the fall of 2008. His father has had an extremely difficult time coping with his son's death, saying he shut down emotionally after the loss of his son.

Vance Johnson is still the fifth leading receiver in Broncos history with 415 receptions. Alongside Mark Jackson and Ricky Nattiel, he was among the "Three Amigos," an indispensable piece of an offense that won three AFC championships from 1987 through 1991.

Vance Johnson is a childhood hero of mine. I am saddened by news of all the adversity Johnson is facing. Given his service to the NFL, I wish more was being done for him. As a 9-year (he took 1994 off) NFL veteran, Johnson receives a pension of about $3,000 per year spent playing, or about $27,000 a year. Fortunately, this pension money is out of reach of his creditors; however, this is a paltry sum given the duration of Johnson's career.

Many have criticized the NFL retirement benefits program for failing to properly support NFL veterans. When one juxtaposes the average NFL career (less than 4 years) with NFL revenues (over $6 billion), $27,000 for a 9-year veteran hardly seems fair. A large number of NFL athletes retire with few, if any, other job skills. Those that earn multi-million dollar salaries often lack the financial skills necessary to plan for life after the NFL. There is no shortage of vulturous accountants, attorneys, and financial planners looking to get a piece of these large contracts--monies which have to last these players for the rest of their lives.

I know Broncos fans haven't forgotten a former franchise hero. I only hope that the NFL and the NFLPA won't forget struggling veterans like Johnson when the current financial conflicts come to a head in 2010.

Summary of Approved Rule Changes

2008-04-02T13:34:00.005-04:00

Mile High Report has an excellent summary of rule changes passed at the recent owners meeting. Among the changes was the elimination of the 'force-out' rule for receptions and elimination of the 5-yard variety facemask penalty. I can't be more concise than the linked author, so check it out.

UPDATE: The Denver Post is reporting that NFL owners rejected a proposal to expand NFL rosters from 80 to 86 players. This was largely viewed as a housekeeping move in response to the dissolution of the NFL Europe league. That the voters rejected this is significant in that it reflects how incredibly tense relations have become between the owners and the NFLPA. Don't pay for your 2010 fantasy football league just yet!

Preseason Schedule Released

2008-04-02T13:09:00.003-04:00

Denver released their preseason schedule today, although the dates have yet to be finalized. Here's how it looks so far:

@ Houston (8/9 or 8/10)
vs. Dallas (8/15 or 8/16)
BYE
vs. Green Bay (8/23 or 8/24)
@ Arizona (8/28 or 8/29)

Pro Football Weekly Mock Draft

2008-04-02T13:02:00.005-04:00

Pro Football Weekly’s latest mock draft has Denver drafting Boise State’s Ryan Clady at #12. Given his horrible Wonderlic score, less-than-ideal attitude, and our youth at the position, I would be flabbergasted if this was our pick. As a side note, they also have USC OLB Keith River’s slipping to #29 and Sedrick Ellis drafted to play NT for Cincinnati; both projections are preposterous. Who writes this garbage?

Update: The Sedrick-Ellis-to-Cincinnati rumors are so ubiquitous at this point that I am conceding they may be considering this move. I don't see Ellis as being a unique fit for this system and think Cincinnati is the perfect trade suitor for Denver in the event that Ellis is available at #9. Given that Cincinnati has emerged as a competitor in the Dwayne Robertson sweepstakes, there could be some interesting moves made between the Jets, Bengals, and Broncos on draft day.

Triaging Denver's Defensive Line

2008-04-02T00:10:00.010-04:00

Few things are more promising in Denver than their platoon of young, talented defensive ends. Elvis Dumervil is already considered to be among the best (for those of you without insider access, Joyner lists Dumervil as the 3rd best pass rusher in the NFL) in the business. Tim Crowder shows a ton of promise and works hard. Jarvis Moss will enter training camp healthy; his speed at end could put our pass rush at the top of the league. Add in veterans John Engleberger and Ebenezer Ekuban, and we've got a lot of depth.

So what on earth is wrong with the interior? Assuming Marcus Thomas avoids suspension and plays up to his potential in '08, Thomas and Alvin McKinley are the only serviceable starters on our roster heading into next season. Denver tried desperately to put together a deal for Jets castoff Dwayne Robertson, but that deal is dead in the water for now. Even with a deal for a healthy, fairly-compensated Robertson, we are still in bad shape.

Let's look at what went wrong. First mistake: Shanahan anoints Jim Bates as defensive coordinator. Traditionally a 2-gap scheme, Bates transforms Denver into a smaller, more athletic interior. This experiment is a miserable failure and Shanahan demotes Bates (who later quit) in favor of Bob Slowik. After a string of failed free agent help, Denver is left with some talent that fails to fit the traditional stop-the-run-first defensive scheme. Here's a telling quote to this effect from an anonymous source via Fox Colorado:

“Then they hired the wrong guy Jim Bates, then they get rid of him. See, no one else would have hired Bates because they know he doesn’t know what he’s doing anymore. So you bring him in [Bates], and then you go from using the big 2 gap d-lineman, [and then] go to small guys. Nobody can do that in the middle of the season. You got rid of some guys thinking the young guys would be good, and the young guys aren’t that good…So when you don’t draft well, and you don’t use the personnel you got, now you got a problem…You got a shortage of talent, and no cap room,” said agent A.

Just how bad were we? Put it this way, Marcus Thomas lead all Broncos DT's in tackles last season with 20. There were 82 tackles in the NFL last season that bested this total; this amounts to 2.6 players per team. Yikes! That's embarrassing.

Under new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik, Denver will almost certainly return to a 2-gap scheme. To do so, we are (a) going to have to add multiple defensive tackles in April's draft and (b) going to have to find specific types of talents to balance our line. In the coming week, I'm going to talk specifically about who I think are the best fit for these needs in this year's draft.

In contemplation of this analysis, lets review some basic defensive-line jargon to help differentiate between different types of defensive line talents. Defensive tackles are often referred to as 0-technique (aka "NT"), 2-technique, or 3-technique. You may also have heard them referred to as 1-gap or 2-gap tackles. Here's a breakdown of what each term specifically means:

Technique: This term actually refers to where the DT lines up. In defensive terminology there are 3 gaps: the A-gap, B-gap, and C-gap. The A-gap refers to the space (on either side) between the Center and the Guard; the B-gap refers to the space between the Guard and the Tackle; and the C-gap refers to the space outside the tackle. A 0-technique tackle lines up nose to nose with the Center (hence "Nose Tackle");a 1-technique tackle lines up in the A-gap; a 2-technique tackle lines up nose to nose with the Guard; and a 3-technique tackle lines up in the B-gap.

When referring to a 3-technique tackle, the media is referring to a player that is a pass rush specialist. Denver doesn't use a "nose tackle" but instead relies on 2-technique tackles, which are typically adept at stopping the run. A select few DT's can be effective at the 1-technique or the 2-technique. Many DT's are capable of handling the 3-technique or the 2-technique. To better understand why this is, we need to talk about gap assignments.
Gap Assignments: Defensive tackles are also categorized as 1-gap or 2-gap tackles. A 1-gap tackle is a pass-rush specialist. His assignment is to line up in the B-gap (hence they are also called "3-technique tackles") and 'shoot the gap' to break into the backfield and disrupt the play. These are smaller, more agile players.

A 2-gap tackle will (in the 4-3) generally line up at the 2-technique (nose to nose with the guard). Because they have a gap on either side, they are not trying to penetrate the line. Rather, their role is to cover both gaps in the case of a run or to collapse the pocket in the case of pass. These are heavier, stronger players.

In many ways, these definitions are an oversimplification; however, understanding of these basic principles will help you realize the type of talent Denver will be looking to acquire in this year's draft. In the coming days, I'll discuss the draft prospects at defensive tackle and try and sort out who should be on our radar in April.

Erik Pears Receives Huge Performance Bonus

2008-04-01T23:04:00.004-04:00

Broncos.com is reporting that right tackle Erik Pears received the twelfth highest performance bonus in the NFL--a total of $255,454. Last season, Pears received the fifth highest performance bonus in the league (a similar amount). With Pears' outstanding play two years running he's earned the starting job at right tackle heading into '08. Our starting offensive line is currently as follows heading into training camp:

LT--Chris Kuper
LG--Ben Hamilton
C--Tom Nalen
RG--Montrae Holland
RT--Erik Pears

Bench--Ryan Harris, Tackle (2006 3rd round pick); Isaac Snell, G (undrafted); Casey Weigmann, C (acquired from Chiefs via free agency).

While Denver will likely add at least one more offensive lineman on draft day, offensive tackle is not a distinctive need. Actually, we are younger at tackle than at any other position.

A Trade for Robertson Unlikely

2008-04-01T22:59:00.005-04:00

Several news sources have quoted Shanahan speaking ominously about the possibility of a trade for Robertson. Shanahan confirmed that Robertson failed his physical. Injury concerns and contract issues had me weary about the advantage in bringing in Robertson. Still, Robertson's experience at NT is something absent from Denver's repertoire at present. It looks like we're going to have to address this need on draft day. More on this to come...

Cutler Criticizes Marshall

2008-04-01T14:57:00.003-04:00

Things between Cutler and Marshall seem a little heated based on Cutler's comments in today's Rocky Mountain News. It sounds like Cutler is just as fed up with reading about Marshall's problems as we are.

Defensive Radio Communication Approved

2008-04-01T14:47:00.004-04:00

ESPN reports that an initiative to allow radio communication devices for defensive players was approved by the owners (25-7). Under the new rule, two players will be allowed to be wired with the device, but you may only have one wired player on the field at a time. The restriction is intended to prevent defenses from inappropriately using the devices.

This move is intended to restore fan confidence in the league after the Spygate embarrassment. I wonder how Belichick voted?

Revealing Comments from Shanahan

2008-04-01T12:40:00.006-04:00

The Rocky Mountain News has a summary of comments made by Shanahan at his latest press conference. Among these are the following notable tidbits:

Shanahan confirmed the free-agent acquisition Keary Colbert will line up opposite Brandon Marshall at WR. In justifying this decision, Shanahan compared Colbert to Eddie McCaffrey who, like Colbert, was left for dead by the Giants before resurrecting his career in Denver.
Shanahan stated Chris Kuper comes into camp as the starter at left tackle rather than 2006 3rd-rounder Ryan Harris. This was unexpected given that Kuper filled in at guard last season for the injured Ben Hamilton while Erik Pears manned the right tackle position. Many (including me) expected Pears and Kuper to compete at right tackle while Harris manned the left side. Pears apparently will keep his job from last year moving Harris to 3rd on the depth chart. Ben Hamilton and Montrae Holland are the starters at guard.
According to the Denver Post, Shanahan also defended his decision to fire Ted Sundquist. The article quotes Shanahan as saying the following:

"With Ted, I don't make a decision like that very quickly," Shanahan said. "It was a very tough decision. But I thought it was one I needed to make because eventually it gives us the best chance to be a better football team. I don't go into any reasons why."

Shanahan also vigorously refuted the accusation that he's fired every defensive coordinator he's ever met. In his defense, Shanahan pointed out the--despite what most seem to think--Ray Rhodes retired in 2002 for health reasons. He also points out that he gave Slowik the reigns on the defense but didn't want Bates to quit.

On offense, Heimerdinger and Kubiak left to pursue different opportunities. Shanahan insightfully points out that any success in the running game is credited to Rick Dennison, in the passing game Shanahan gets the credit. From that perspective, it makes sense that a talented offensive coordinator would want to get out of Shanahan's shadow.

Based on Shanahan's comments, the likelihood of Denver going after a receiver or tackle with the 12th overall pick is seemingly small. For the rest of his comments, check out the article linked above.

It's also nice to see a columnist defend Shanahan. The press has been acrimonious ever since Sundquist was fired. Ultimately, a return to the top of the AFC in 2009 will turn all these carpers into neophytes.

Is a Broncos Return to the Super Bowl Near?

2008-04-01T09:33:00.004-04:00

Not if you ask Denver Post reporter Mike Klis. In his latest 'Mailbag' column, Klis had the following not-so-insightful comment:

The careers of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning do come into play regarding the Broncos' Super Bowl aspirations. I'm going to assume those two quarterbacks have not won their last Super Bowls. ...Even if the Broncos put together another 13-3 season in, say, 2009, would they be able to get past Brady and Manning in the postseason?

For now, I'll say this: With Jay Cutler as their quarterback, the Broncos will be in good shape to make a Super Bowl run as soon as Brady and Manning slip. If I knew exactly when the fade of those great quarterbacks will occur, I'd probably be asked to take on tasks less fulfilling than opening letters from the Broncos Mailbag.

A cursory glance at the history of the Super Bowl should tell us that this logic is flawed. Recall, it was Eli Manning, rather than Tom Brady who took home the Super Bowl ring last season. I also remember another Manning brother getting ousted by the always-unsportsmanlike Philip Rivers week 2. Glancing back at Super Bowl history, this argument makes even less sense. Here's a short list of less-than-godlike Super Bowl champion quarterbacks over the last 30 years:

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (2006). A rookie, no less. Not to mention, one who threw 23 picks and only 18 touchdowns the following season.
Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay (2005). The quarterback position was a disaster for this team the whole year. Johnson started three games and the entire postseason after the Bucs lost Griese to injury and a failed Shaun King experiment.
Trent Dilfer, Baltimore (2001). He was probably the 11th best player on this stacked offense that featured a 2000 yard rusher, but landed the Disneyworld endorsement over a recently acquitted Ray Lewis (MVP) nevertheless.
Mark Rypien, Washington (1992). Rypien certainly had a great season (league MVP/Super Bowl MVP) but didn't last another year in the league after this anomalous run.
Jeff Hostetler, New York (1991). Tuna looked like he was cooked when Phil Simms broke his foot in the AFC championship.
Doug Williams, Washington (1988). Gibbs engineered another Super Bowl with no hall of fame quarterback on the roster.
Jim McMahon, Chicago (1986). McMahon might be the cockiest quarterback in league history, but he's no where near the best. In the mold of Trent Dilfer, McMahon was asked not to lose the game but not expected to win it.
Jim Plunkett, Oakland (1984; 1981). Plunkett has a career passer rating of 67.1. He threw 167 touchdowns and 198 interceptions for his career. He was aged 37 when he won this championship. Plunkett arguably holds the dubious distinction of being the worst quarterback to ever win two Super Bowls (Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese are probably the other two candidates).

How much worse is Cutler than Brady or Manning? The answer is probably, "not as bad as you think." Cutler was tied with Manning for third in the NFL with 14 interceptions last season (for 16-game starters). He also completed 63.1% of his passes his first full season as an NFL starter. Cutler's 7.5 YPA is above average and will improve as the receiving core continues to improve. Cutler finished the second half of the season on a pace to have 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If you have a 2:1 TD-Int ratio in the NFL, you're doing something right.

Cutler throws the ball as hard as Favre or Elway, he's extremely accurate for a first year starter, and he's mobile. His low pick totals are a credit to his poise under pressure and awareness. Despite losing 3 starters on the offensive line, Cutler got better and better as the season progressed.

Really, we have no idea what Cutler's upside is, but its bootless to say that he simply should wait for Brady and Manning to retire. If that's true, Cutler will be 30 before we've even got a shot at a ring. I just don't buy that.

This year, the Patriots lost pro-bowler Asante Samuel, safety Eugene Wilson, and defensive lineman Roosevelt Colvin. Vrabel, Seau, Bruschi, and Harrison don't have much gas left in the tank. Adalius Thomas is in his 30's. If the Patriots are standing in our way, they better reload that defense. My guess is that Belichick retires either this year or in 2009. With the youth movement in Denver, there's no reason we can't be a Super Bowl competitor in the next two to three years.

Robertson Trade Talks Still Underway

2008-03-31T21:43:00.004-04:00

Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this situation? Robertson--a huge disappointment in terms of his draft stock--looks like he'll cost us between $8 and $11 million against the cap. As if they weren't shady enough, he couldn't pass a physical in February.

I'm sure the Jets are anxious to get this guy off their books (maybe for good reason), but I get the feeling that Denver is the sucker in this deal. I can't remember the last time Denver signed a big-time free agent NT that didn't blow up in their face (Dan Wilkerson, Sam Adams, Daryle Gardner). Is it possible to get this done on draft day?

The Madness of King Davis

2008-03-31T06:09:00.003-04:00

Pro Football Weekly has a hilarious article on the lunacy that is Al Davis. As if his strange conflict with Lane Kiffin weren't bad enough (only one season removed from the worst head coach hiring in NFL history), Al Davis is breaking the bank to bring in some very questionable free agents. Here's a breakdown of some of their commitments:

Nnamdi Asomugha was franchise tagged at nearly $10 million; he says he refuses to return next season no matter how much Oakland offers him to stay.
Head case DeAngelo Hall signed for $70 million over 7 years.
The very ordinary Gibril Wilson signed for $39 million over 5 years.
49ers castoff Kwame Harris signed for $14 million over 3 years.
DT Tommie Kelly (WHO?) signed the largest ever contract for a DT--$50.5 million--after tearing his ACL last season.
Head case Javon Walker received $55 million over 6 years.

According to the article, Oakland is $5 million under the cap and still has to sign the 4th overall pick in this years draft. Good luck, Al.

Broncos and Cowboys to Scrimmage During Preseason

2008-03-31T05:53:00.005-04:00

Formerly offensive/defensive coordinators together under Dan Reeve's, Shanahan and Cowboy's Head Coach Wade Phillips have agreed to hold a 2-day practice session this summer, according to this article. With all the prima donna's and head cases in Dallas, this should be great preparation for 4 games against Oakland and San Deigo.

Monday Morning Hodgepodge

2008-03-31T05:01:00.007-04:00

There were several items of interest in this article in this morning's Denver Post:

Echoing earlier sentiments posted by this blogger, Pat Bowlen is adamantly opposed to a proposed rules change which would allow wildcard teams to earn home-field advantage against a division winner.
With Ben Hamilton fully recovered from post-concussion symptoms, 2006 3rd-round pick Chris Kuper is expected to compete at right tackle. Kuper filled in capably at guard in Hamilton's absence last season.

Last years 6th pick in the 3rd round Ryan Harris is penciled in as the starter at right tackle. Many have speculated that Denver will draft a tackle with the 12th overall pick in this years draft. The best available fit for the zone-blocking scheme is Boise State's Ryan O'Clady (who's not the sharpest tool in the shed), but many feel he will be off the board with the 12th pick. There is little question that Denver needs to add depth at offensive line via the draft; however, don't expect them to address this need in the first round. If Broncos management feels that Ryan Harris is ready to play at a high level, they may just add a project player on day 2.
Elam left town, Mare was overpaid to play in Seattle, and the sky has not fallen. In fact, I think Denver's failure to sign Mare was serendipitous. The post claims that three potential suitors have surfaced in the search for Elam's replacement: John Carney, Paul Edinger, and Justin Medlock. John Carney is old enough to remember this, so I don't think he's the long-term solution we need.

Edinger--known for his "corkscrew" kicking motion in which his back faces the uprights--has been out of the league since 2005. He's got plenty of range and nailed 84% of his kicks for Chicago in 2001. A year later he hit 74% of his kicks for Minnesota, including a 56-yard game winner against Green Bay (still the longest field goal in Vikings franchise history). He was released the next season.

The greatest left-footed, black kicker of all time, Justin Medlock was the top kicker taken in last year's draft. After missing a 30-yard kick against Houston in week 1, he was unceremoniously dumped by Herm Edwards (a couple of weeks after releasing Lawrence Tynes, who hit about 15 clutch kicks for the Super Bowl champions--GOOD JOB HERM!). The Rams picked him up off the wire where he is firmly embedded behind free agent acquisition Josh Brown. Denver has expressed interest in a trade for Medlock, although they are reportedly unwilling to part with a draft pick. If they can make this deal happen, Medlock would be a young, inexpensive prospect with tons of upside to push Prater in camp this season.

That's a wrap.

Manning the Middle

2008-03-29T09:13:00.010-04:00

This morning, the Denver Post profiled free agent acquisition Niko Koutouvides. According to the article, Denver plans to use Koutouvides at middle linebacker this year, moving D.J. Williams back to the weak side (after a year in the middle). Free agent Boss Bailey will man the strong side.

Scouting reports on Koutouvides suggest that he has great speed and tackling ability; however, they also say he's more of a straight-line player and struggles as a positional player. To his credit, Koutouvides was selected by Seattle in the 4th round of the 2004 NFL draft. With this being only his 4th year in the league, perhaps Broncos management sees something we don't; however, Koutouvides just turned 27. So if ever there was a time for him to deliver on his potential, its in the next year or two. He's not getting any younger.

I do think that Koutouvides will hold down the starting MLB job in '08; however, I don't think he'll be there long term. Don't get me wrong: I think Koutouvides is a great free agent signing; he provides great depth at the position and is a proven standout on special teams. But I think Denver--contrary to what many analysts have reported, is looking strongly at the draft for a solution at the MLB position.

Who might they take? The top MLB on most draft boards is Penn State's Dan Conner. Conner is a great athlete who's held down the position capably at Penn State; however, character issues abound and he hasn't displayed leadership, a hunger for knowledge, or a blue collar work ethic--all attributes which should arguably be present for the quarterback of the defense (name a great quarterback that isn't a film rat). What's more, Conner projects as a late first rounder, so unless Denver were to trade down (or up), he's likely not in our plans.

A far more likely candidate is Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton. Lofton's 4.79 40-yard dash time didn't help his draft stock at the combine. Lofton is also only 6'0", which means he probably doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. But at 246 lbs., he's at a great size. More importantly, Lofton is hungry for recognition, works hard, displays fantastic leadership in-and-out of the locker room, and has never shown durability problems.

Despite his seemingly average athleticism, Lofton has a never ending motor, plays with an aggressive streak, and always seems to be around the ball. He absolutely punishes wide receivers coming across the middle. Playing in the zone underneath, Lofton would be a great fit in Denver (although he doesn't flash exceptional man coverage skills). His nose for the ball in the running game is an attribute that gets high marks with Shanahan. Lofton is an extremely efficient player who might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. The price tag would be a second rounder, but in my opinion its well worth it.

Here is a highlight video of Lofton for those who are interested:

Marshall Calls Out Woody Paige

2008-03-28T06:51:00.006-04:00

BroncoTalk has an entertaining write-up on Marshall's rebuttal to the outspoken Woody Paige. Paige wrote a scathing indictment of Marshall following the injury sustained to his forearm while engaged in 'horseplay' with his brother. I can't stand the tabloid melodrama, so I don't have much too say; but if you're interested, BroncoTalk has a good synopsis with links.

Proposed NFL Rule Changes

2008-03-27T13:41:00.008-04:00

According to the Rocky Mountain News, the NFL will vote on the following proposed changes for the upcoming season:

Allowing defensive players to wear headsets like quarterbacks currently do.

My Take: DO IT NOW! Is there any doubt that this will pass? After the enduring the idiocy of Spygate, this is a change that must be made to restore the fan's (and Senator's) confidence.
If you have long hair, its got to be tucked into your jersey.

My Take: DUMB MOVE. This post just about sums it up. This initiative is almost as stupid as this.
Base playoff seedings on record (for the 3rd through 6th seeds) rather than automatically awarding the three-seed the top spot.

My Take: DUMB MOVE. So let me get this straight, I win my division, fail to receive a bye because a team in another division--who could of just had a softer division and softer schedule--had a better record. Now I'm looking at a wild-card seeding because the second-place finisher in a crappy division finished a game better than me.

The last time this rule change would have actually mattered was in 2005 where Jacksonville (12-4) would have received a higher seed than the Bengals (11-5) and Patriots (10-6), despite having a significantly easier schedule.
A vote to opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2010. Bowlen is one of the bleeding deacons pushing for this move.

My Take: IT HAS TO HAPPEN. Its difficult to say whether Bowlen--who's acted like he's teetering on bankruptcy in recent months--is putting on a show for the owners and the NFLPA, or if he's got legitimate financial problems. I seriously doubt its the latter of the two. However, I have serious concerns about the competitive landscape in the NFL. In my opinion, the salary cap acceleration is destroying parity in the NFL. The salary cap is supposed to be a price ceiling. If the ceiling is above the market-clearing cap figure, it over-burdens small market teams. Some kind of adjustment is needed (either in terms of revenue sharing or salary cap) to keep things competitive. Sadly, there will probably be a lockout in 2010 (here is a portentous article from SI on this subject).
Formally put in place a 5 to 7 day period prior to free agency for players to talk to suitors.

My Take: *YAWN* This is obviously a rule intended to send a signal that teams will no longer get away with free-agent tampering. I'm actually excited about this rule change given that Herm Edwards will finally quit sniveling."

That's a wrap.

Olindo Mare Offered a Contract

2008-03-27T13:16:00.008-04:00

I've made no attempt to hide my disdain for Olindo Mare. Apparently Broncos Management feels otherwise. Mare was offered a contract for an undisclosed amount after his visit yesterday. Despite a concerted effort to get his signature before departing, Mare boarded a plane to Seattle without a signed contract. The Seahawks are without a kicker since losing Josh Brown to free agency.

It looks like once again the Broncos and Seahawks will enter a bidding war for a free agent. This time the winner of this fiasco may be the one who gets outbid. Mare was horribly inaccurate last season before sustaining a season ending injury. He was cut by the Saints.

35-year-old Mare's track record suggests he's a very average kicker, hitting about 90% from inside the 40 for his career. From 50+ mare has connected on an abysmal 15 of 35 attempts (one of which was a gut-wrenching game winner at Invesco in 2002). His best attribute is his ability to kickoff; he finished 3rd in touchback percentage last season behind Sebastian Janikowski and Broncos incumbent Matt Prater.

Given that Prater is 23 and already on our roster, why sign Mare? This might indicate that the Broncos aren't confident in Prater's ability to handle the job. Once we know the terms of his offer, it may surface that they are merely trying to make Prater compete for the job or providing him with a veteran mentor. One things for sure: if the cost of obtaining Mare's services is anywhere near the price we balked at for Elam, Broncos fans will be extremely displeased.

UPDATE: Thankfully, Mare was signed by Seattle to the tune of 2 years, $3.5 million. That's not a whole lot less than Denver offered Elam, so imagine the mutiny if they had bid against Seattle. I don't know what the solution is at kicker in Denver, but one things for sure: Mare wasn't it. It looks like we're going to see if Prater's leg is for real.

Randy Gradishar Recognized as Defensive Pioneer

2008-03-27T12:05:00.008-04:00

According to an article at Pro Football Weekly, the Pro Football Research Association recently assembled a panel of former NFL players with intimate knowledge of the 3-4. They were asked to name the "All-Time 3-4 Front Seven." Among the starters is Denver Broncos LILB Randy Gradishar.

The other nominees are Lee Roy Selmon (DRE Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Curly Culp (NT Kansas City Chiefs), Howie Long (DLE Oakland Raiders), Lawrence Taylor (ROLB New York Giants), Harry Carson (RILB New York Giants), and recent Hall of Fame inductee Andre Tippett (LOLB New England Patriots). Gradishar, Taylor, and Carson all were picked by 70% of the panel or greater. Other winners were more controversial, in many cases receiving less than 50% of the votes. Gradishar's competition included Saints/Panthers LILB Sam Mills (7 votes) and former Redskins/Raiders/49ers LILB Matt Millen (2 votes).

The leader of the "Orange Crush" defense, Gradishar amassed over 150 tackles for 9 straight years, averaging over 200 tackles for his career. He was NFL Defensive MVP in 1978, leading them to an AFC championship (and a loss to the Cowboys in the Super Bowl) with 286 tackles and 4 interceptions. Gradishar was a two-time All-American in college and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting his senior year. Infamous Buckeye's coach Woody Hayes referred to Gradishar as "the best linebacker I ever coached." The Buckeye's award for the best linebacker is called the "Gradishar Award" to this day in his honor. Thanks to Broncotalk.net for the fantastic summary of Gradishar's career. The article I linked has a much more detailed review of his accolades for those who are interested.

Gradishar was snubbed once again by the Hall of Fame selection committee; however, he was listed among the finalists for the first time since he retired. Perhaps this additional recognition will help tip the scales in Gradishar's favor. Given the laundry list of former Broncos who've been snubbed in recent years, the odds are against him.

Ferguson Lands in Houston

2008-03-27T09:19:00.003-04:00

Former Broncos SS Nick Ferguson reportedly signed a one-year deal with the Houston Texans. He provides veteran depth to a unit which struggled in 2006. Among our most consistent options at safety since his arrival in 2002, Ferguson was replaced by Hamza Abdullah at safety the final six games of last season. With his departure, Denver has only 5 players left on their roster from the 2005 AFC championship game.

Chiefs Go Big at Wide Receiver

2008-03-26T12:11:00.011-04:00

Drawing comparison to the gigantic Jacksonville Jaguars receiving corp, the Chiefs will boast one of the largest receiving corps in the NFL in 2008. Last season, Dante Hall (5'8" 187 lbs.) was dealt to the St. Louis Rams. This off season, Samie Parker (5'11" 190 lbs.) and Eddie Kennison (6'0" 201 lbs.) were both let go. Dwayne Bowe (6'4" 221 lbs.), Jeff Webb (6'2" 211 lbs.), Bowe's cousin Bobby Sippio (6'3" 214 lbs.), and recently signed Raven's castoff Devard Darling (6'1" 215 lbs.) are the revamped 2008 receiving corp.

This shift away from the Vermeil-style speedy receiver is undoubtedly part of Herm Edward's plan to improve the running game and play a more physical style of football. The downside to this strategy is that the Chiefs don't have anyone on their roster to stretch the field (although Tony Gonzalez tends to keep safeties on their toes). While this may make their rushing offense more formidable down field, I think this will ultimately make life a bit easier for Broncos defensive backs.

On a side note, I can't say I'm going to miss playing against Eddie Kennison. After his classless departure from Denver early in his career, he absolute torched our secondary. In 9 games from 2001 to 2005, Kennison averaged 76 yards and .33 touchdowns per game; that includes four 100-yard outings. Kennison has been hampered by injuries the last two seasons. Good riddance.

Grow up, Brandon!

2008-03-26T10:28:00.005-04:00

Woody Paige wrote a scathing indictment of Brandon Marshall in today's Denver Post. In it, he claims that Marshall, dubbed "Baby T.O.", may live up to his nickname in more ways than one. In addition to 'horseplay' (and his subsequent lying about it), Marshall is facing DUI charges. He has a history of domestic violence.

Paige also discusses Brandon Marshall's involvement in the Darrient Williams shooting. He claims that Marshall instigated the conflict (which included spraying champagne on his interlocutors) with area gang members that culminated in William's shooting. Marshall has never discussed the incident with the media.

I think I've read this story before; it doesn't end well. The more I learn about Brandon Marshall, the less confident I am that he is a long-term solution at wide receiver. Maybe drafting a wide receiver in round 2 isn't such a bad idea after all.

Foxworth Youngest Ever NFLPA Board Member

2008-03-25T21:00:00.013-04:00

Congratulations are in order for 24-year-old Dominique Foxworth who just became the youngest player elected to the NFLPA's 10-member executive board in the organizations history. Dominique shares his thoughts on his appointment at his blog.

Fox Colorado reports that Foxworth--a restricted free agent--is being scouted by a number of NFL teams. Denver offered Foxworth a 3rd round tender (the round he was drafted in). If Denver fails to match a competing offer for Foxworth, they'd receive a third round pick as compensation.

Some have argued that Ted Sunquist's attempts to package Foxworth in a deal for Jets Defensive Tackle Dwayne Robertson was the last straw in an already tense relationship with Broncos management. After Sundquist's departure, Foxworth was quickly removed from the table.

These facts leave one wondering how valued Foxworth is to Broncos management. On one hand, he was given an anemic contract offer (given his RFA status). On the other hand, Bowlen and Shanahan seem adamant that he won't be part of any trade. Perhaps Denver is setting the floor low to allow the market to determine Foxworth's value; perhaps they feel that Foxworth is a commodity at his position that doesn't warrant a large cap commitment (this was seemingly their thinking with Chris Myers); or perhaps money is so tight in Denver that they simply don't have the cash to spend. As this off season's free agency period comes to an end, we'll have a clearer picture. Giving another team the opportunity to give Foxworth a lucrative offer or one which contains a poison pill is an awfully big risk if they are, in fact, committed to keeping Dom in town.

Foxworth has performed capably at nickelback in his first two years. He was a veritable utility man last season, filling in at safety where our lackluster unit was ill equipped to compete. Given time, he could emerge as a top-shelf cornerback. Between Javon Walker's mouth, Travis Henry's hair samples and maternity tests, Marcus Thomas's drug problems, and Brandon Marshall's anger management problem (not to mention this idiot), it is refreshing to see a player display such great leadership so early in his career. With such rare intangibles, I would hate to see Denver lose a budding locker room leader to free agency.

A Look at Denver's Red Zone Efficency

2008-03-24T23:10:00.036-04:00

All right Shana-haters, lets talk red zone efficiency. Lately, pundits of the Shanahan regime have argued that his red zone offense is no longer elite, and therefore the game has 'passed him by'. I decided to investigate this oft-cited anti-Shanahan reasoning to put the debate to rest.

Much to the chagrin of the Shana-haters, Denver's red zone offense has been something between average and dominant the last five years--just like our winning percentage. Here are the numbers:
Denver Broncos Red Zone Efficiency (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	Scoring %	Rank	TD %	Rank
2007	51	0.863	16	0.49	21
2006	44	0.977	1	0.545	12
2005	58	0.862	13	0.603	7
2004	53	0.792	28	0.453	27
2003	56	0.875	11	0.554	8
	262	0.8738	13.8	0.529	15

Aggregate Red Zone Efficiency-All Teams (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	TD	FG	Scor %	TD %
2007	1548	809	527	.863	.523
2006	1521	773	501	.837	.508
2005	1551	792	528	.851	.511
2004	1557	839	454	.830	.539
2003	1522	781	496	.839	.513
	7699	3994	2506	.844	.519

As you can see, claims that Denver's red zone offense is ineffective are factually incorrect. Rather, we've consistently ranked in the top half of the league in both touchdown percentage and scoring percentage in the red zone. The extreme exception to this trend is 2004; a season in which Plummer broke Elway's franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Ironically, this is also the season that Broncos fans cling to when berating Shanahan for putting the handcuffs on Jake the Snake.

Consistent with our 7-9 record last season, our red zone efficiency was slightly below average. Scoring percentage was par for the course while touchdown percentage--as many, many people have noted of late--was ranked a paltry 21st in the league. While 2007 was undoubtedly a statistical slide from previous Broncos seasons, the offense didn't perform that badly when injuries to Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, Henry, Walker, Stokely, and Scheffler (did I miss any non-first-year starter other than Graham and Marshall??) are taken into account.

Finally, the controversial 2006 season in which Plummer was unceremoniously dumped as starting QB was an exemplary year for Denver's offense despite our failure to reach the playoffs. Contrary to popular belief, it was our defense that cost us a championship run rather than the offense under Jay Cutler.

Unfortunately, the Shanahan lynch mob seems to have a short term memory. Shanahan's offensive track record since Elway retired is elite compared to the rest of the league. The Broncos fan base has enjoyed over a decade of competitive excellence in the NFL. The downside to this excess is that 7-10 win seasons have grown stale; Broncos fans are yearning for their team to recapture the Super Bowl years. Let them run Shanahan out of town and feel the sting of a 1-15 season and they'll beat a different drum. With many things in life, we don't value what we have until we've lost it. This is one lesson I'd rather not learn the hard way.

NOTE: My rudimentary HTML skills have me baffled at how to remove the annoying space between the table headers and the tables. Next time I'll just embed a screen shot! If you want a copy of the data you can find it here. All red zone statistics were gathered from Pro Football Weekly.

Worrysome Wonderlic Scores

2008-03-24T17:13:00.003-04:00

The Chicago Tribune leaked the Wonderlic test results of most consensus first round picks in this years draft. Surprisingly, very few prospects performed poorly. Only three players received bad marks: OT Ryan Clady of Boise St., OLB Keith Rivers of USC, and S Kenny Phillips of Miami, who scored 13, 16, and 16 respectively (20 is 'average intelligence'). Much to the dismay of Broncos fans, all three have been liberally mentioned as front runners for Denver's 12th overall pick next month. Here's hoping the draft analysts are incorrect (as usual).