Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this situation? Robertson--a huge disappointment in terms of his draft stock--looks like he'll cost us between $8 and $11 million against the cap. As if they weren't shady enough, he couldn't pass a physical in February.
I'm sure the Jets are anxious to get this guy off their books (maybe for good reason), but I get the feeling that Denver is the sucker in this deal. I can't remember the last time Denver signed a big-time free agent NT that didn't blow up in their face (Dan Wilkerson, Sam Adams, Daryle Gardner). Is it possible to get this done on draft day?
Monday, March 31, 2008
The Madness of King Davis
Pro Football Weekly has a hilarious article on the lunacy that is Al Davis. As if his strange conflict with Lane Kiffin weren't bad enough (only one season removed from the worst head coach hiring in NFL history), Al Davis is breaking the bank to bring in some very questionable free agents. Here's a breakdown of some of their commitments:
According to the article, Oakland is $5 million under the cap and still has to sign the 4th overall pick in this years draft. Good luck, Al.
- Nnamdi Asomugha was franchise tagged at nearly $10 million; he says he refuses to return next season no matter how much Oakland offers him to stay.
- Head case DeAngelo Hall signed for $70 million over 7 years.
- The very ordinary Gibril Wilson signed for $39 million over 5 years.
- 49ers castoff Kwame Harris signed for $14 million over 3 years.
- DT Tommie Kelly (WHO?) signed the largest ever contract for a DT--$50.5 million--after tearing his ACL last season.
- Head case Javon Walker received $55 million over 6 years.
According to the article, Oakland is $5 million under the cap and still has to sign the 4th overall pick in this years draft. Good luck, Al.
Broncos and Cowboys to Scrimmage During Preseason
Formerly offensive/defensive coordinators together under Dan Reeve's, Shanahan and Cowboy's Head Coach Wade Phillips have agreed to hold a 2-day practice session this summer, according to this article. With all the prima donna's and head cases in Dallas, this should be great preparation for 4 games against Oakland and San Deigo.
Monday Morning Hodgepodge
There were several items of interest in this article in this morning's Denver Post:
That's a wrap.
- Echoing earlier sentiments posted by this blogger, Pat Bowlen is adamantly opposed to a proposed rules change which would allow wildcard teams to earn home-field advantage against a division winner.
- With Ben Hamilton fully recovered from post-concussion symptoms, 2006 3rd-round pick Chris Kuper is expected to compete at right tackle. Kuper filled in capably at guard in Hamilton's absence last season.
Last years 6th pick in the 3rd round Ryan Harris is penciled in as the starter at right tackle. Many have speculated that Denver will draft a tackle with the 12th overall pick in this years draft. The best available fit for the zone-blocking scheme is Boise State's Ryan O'Clady (who's not the sharpest tool in the shed), but many feel he will be off the board with the 12th pick. There is little question that Denver needs to add depth at offensive line via the draft; however, don't expect them to address this need in the first round. If Broncos management feels that Ryan Harris is ready to play at a high level, they may just add a project player on day 2. - Elam left town, Mare was overpaid to play in Seattle, and the sky has not fallen. In fact, I think Denver's failure to sign Mare was serendipitous. The post claims that three potential suitors have surfaced in the search for Elam's replacement: John Carney, Paul Edinger, and Justin Medlock. John Carney is old enough to remember this, so I don't think he's the long-term solution we need.
Edinger--known for his "corkscrew" kicking motion in which his back faces the uprights--has been out of the league since 2005. He's got plenty of range and nailed 84% of his kicks for Chicago in 2001. A year later he hit 74% of his kicks for Minnesota, including a 56-yard game winner against Green Bay (still the longest field goal in Vikings franchise history). He was released the next season.
The greatest left-footed, black kicker of all time, Justin Medlock was the top kicker taken in last year's draft. After missing a 30-yard kick against Houston in week 1, he was unceremoniously dumped by Herm Edwards (a couple of weeks after releasing Lawrence Tynes, who hit about 15 clutch kicks for the Super Bowl champions--GOOD JOB HERM!). The Rams picked him up off the wire where he is firmly embedded behind free agent acquisition Josh Brown. Denver has expressed interest in a trade for Medlock, although they are reportedly unwilling to part with a draft pick. If they can make this deal happen, Medlock would be a young, inexpensive prospect with tons of upside to push Prater in camp this season.
That's a wrap.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Manning the Middle
This morning, the Denver Post profiled free agent acquisition Niko Koutouvides. According to the article, Denver plans to use Koutouvides at middle linebacker this year, moving D.J. Williams back to the weak side (after a year in the middle). Free agent Boss Bailey will man the strong side.
Scouting reports on Koutouvides suggest that he has great speed and tackling ability; however, they also say he's more of a straight-line player and struggles as a positional player. To his credit, Koutouvides was selected by Seattle in the 4th round of the 2004 NFL draft. With this being only his 4th year in the league, perhaps Broncos management sees something we don't; however, Koutouvides just turned 27. So if ever there was a time for him to deliver on his potential, its in the next year or two. He's not getting any younger.
I do think that Koutouvides will hold down the starting MLB job in '08; however, I don't think he'll be there long term. Don't get me wrong: I think Koutouvides is a great free agent signing; he provides great depth at the position and is a proven standout on special teams. But I think Denver--contrary to what many analysts have reported, is looking strongly at the draft for a solution at the MLB position.
Who might they take? The top MLB on most draft boards is Penn State's Dan Conner. Conner is a great athlete who's held down the position capably at Penn State; however, character issues abound and he hasn't displayed leadership, a hunger for knowledge, or a blue collar work ethic--all attributes which should arguably be present for the quarterback of the defense (name a great quarterback that isn't a film rat). What's more, Conner projects as a late first rounder, so unless Denver were to trade down (or up), he's likely not in our plans.
A far more likely candidate is Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton. Lofton's 4.79 40-yard dash time didn't help his draft stock at the combine. Lofton is also only 6'0", which means he probably doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. But at 246 lbs., he's at a great size. More importantly, Lofton is hungry for recognition, works hard, displays fantastic leadership in-and-out of the locker room, and has never shown durability problems.
Despite his seemingly average athleticism, Lofton has a never ending motor, plays with an aggressive streak, and always seems to be around the ball. He absolutely punishes wide receivers coming across the middle. Playing in the zone underneath, Lofton would be a great fit in Denver (although he doesn't flash exceptional man coverage skills). His nose for the ball in the running game is an attribute that gets high marks with Shanahan. Lofton is an extremely efficient player who might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. The price tag would be a second rounder, but in my opinion its well worth it.
Here is a highlight video of Lofton for those who are interested:
Scouting reports on Koutouvides suggest that he has great speed and tackling ability; however, they also say he's more of a straight-line player and struggles as a positional player. To his credit, Koutouvides was selected by Seattle in the 4th round of the 2004 NFL draft. With this being only his 4th year in the league, perhaps Broncos management sees something we don't; however, Koutouvides just turned 27. So if ever there was a time for him to deliver on his potential, its in the next year or two. He's not getting any younger.
I do think that Koutouvides will hold down the starting MLB job in '08; however, I don't think he'll be there long term. Don't get me wrong: I think Koutouvides is a great free agent signing; he provides great depth at the position and is a proven standout on special teams. But I think Denver--contrary to what many analysts have reported, is looking strongly at the draft for a solution at the MLB position.
Who might they take? The top MLB on most draft boards is Penn State's Dan Conner. Conner is a great athlete who's held down the position capably at Penn State; however, character issues abound and he hasn't displayed leadership, a hunger for knowledge, or a blue collar work ethic--all attributes which should arguably be present for the quarterback of the defense (name a great quarterback that isn't a film rat). What's more, Conner projects as a late first rounder, so unless Denver were to trade down (or up), he's likely not in our plans.
A far more likely candidate is Oklahoma's Curtis Lofton. Lofton's 4.79 40-yard dash time didn't help his draft stock at the combine. Lofton is also only 6'0", which means he probably doesn't have the frame to add much bulk. But at 246 lbs., he's at a great size. More importantly, Lofton is hungry for recognition, works hard, displays fantastic leadership in-and-out of the locker room, and has never shown durability problems.
Despite his seemingly average athleticism, Lofton has a never ending motor, plays with an aggressive streak, and always seems to be around the ball. He absolutely punishes wide receivers coming across the middle. Playing in the zone underneath, Lofton would be a great fit in Denver (although he doesn't flash exceptional man coverage skills). His nose for the ball in the running game is an attribute that gets high marks with Shanahan. Lofton is an extremely efficient player who might be one of the most underrated players in the draft. The price tag would be a second rounder, but in my opinion its well worth it.
Here is a highlight video of Lofton for those who are interested:
Friday, March 28, 2008
Marshall Calls Out Woody Paige
BroncoTalk has an entertaining write-up on Marshall's rebuttal to the outspoken Woody Paige. Paige wrote a scathing indictment of Marshall following the injury sustained to his forearm while engaged in 'horseplay' with his brother. I can't stand the tabloid melodrama, so I don't have much too say; but if you're interested, BroncoTalk has a good synopsis with links.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Proposed NFL Rule Changes
According to the Rocky Mountain News, the NFL will vote on the following proposed changes for the upcoming season:
That's a wrap.
- Allowing defensive players to wear headsets like quarterbacks currently do.
My Take: DO IT NOW! Is there any doubt that this will pass? After the enduring the idiocy of Spygate, this is a change that must be made to restore the fan's (and Senator's) confidence. - If you have long hair, its got to be tucked into your jersey.
My Take: DUMB MOVE. This post just about sums it up. This initiative is almost as stupid as this. - Base playoff seedings on record (for the 3rd through 6th seeds) rather than automatically awarding the three-seed the top spot.
My Take: DUMB MOVE. So let me get this straight, I win my division, fail to receive a bye because a team in another division--who could of just had a softer division and softer schedule--had a better record. Now I'm looking at a wild-card seeding because the second-place finisher in a crappy division finished a game better than me.
The last time this rule change would have actually mattered was in 2005 where Jacksonville (12-4) would have received a higher seed than the Bengals (11-5) and Patriots (10-6), despite having a significantly easier schedule. - A vote to opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement in 2010. Bowlen is one of the bleeding deacons pushing for this move.
My Take: IT HAS TO HAPPEN. Its difficult to say whether Bowlen--who's acted like he's teetering on bankruptcy in recent months--is putting on a show for the owners and the NFLPA, or if he's got legitimate financial problems. I seriously doubt its the latter of the two. However, I have serious concerns about the competitive landscape in the NFL. In my opinion, the salary cap acceleration is destroying parity in the NFL. The salary cap is supposed to be a price ceiling. If the ceiling is above the market-clearing cap figure, it over-burdens small market teams. Some kind of adjustment is needed (either in terms of revenue sharing or salary cap) to keep things competitive. Sadly, there will probably be a lockout in 2010 (here is a portentous article from SI on this subject). - Formally put in place a 5 to 7 day period prior to free agency for players to talk to suitors.
My Take: *YAWN* This is obviously a rule intended to send a signal that teams will no longer get away with free-agent tampering. I'm actually excited about this rule change given that Herm Edwards will finally quit sniveling."
That's a wrap.
Olindo Mare Offered a Contract
I've made no attempt to hide my disdain for Olindo Mare. Apparently Broncos Management feels otherwise. Mare was offered a contract for an undisclosed amount after his visit yesterday. Despite a concerted effort to get his signature before departing, Mare boarded a plane to Seattle without a signed contract. The Seahawks are without a kicker since losing Josh Brown to free agency.
It looks like once again the Broncos and Seahawks will enter a bidding war for a free agent. This time the winner of this fiasco may be the one who gets outbid. Mare was horribly inaccurate last season before sustaining a season ending injury. He was cut by the Saints.
35-year-old Mare's track record suggests he's a very average kicker, hitting about 90% from inside the 40 for his career. From 50+ mare has connected on an abysmal 15 of 35 attempts (one of which was a gut-wrenching game winner at Invesco in 2002). His best attribute is his ability to kickoff; he finished 3rd in touchback percentage last season behind Sebastian Janikowski and Broncos incumbent Matt Prater.
Given that Prater is 23 and already on our roster, why sign Mare? This might indicate that the Broncos aren't confident in Prater's ability to handle the job. Once we know the terms of his offer, it may surface that they are merely trying to make Prater compete for the job or providing him with a veteran mentor. One things for sure: if the cost of obtaining Mare's services is anywhere near the price we balked at for Elam, Broncos fans will be extremely displeased.
UPDATE: Thankfully, Mare was signed by Seattle to the tune of 2 years, $3.5 million. That's not a whole lot less than Denver offered Elam, so imagine the mutiny if they had bid against Seattle. I don't know what the solution is at kicker in Denver, but one things for sure: Mare wasn't it. It looks like we're going to see if Prater's leg is for real.
It looks like once again the Broncos and Seahawks will enter a bidding war for a free agent. This time the winner of this fiasco may be the one who gets outbid. Mare was horribly inaccurate last season before sustaining a season ending injury. He was cut by the Saints.
35-year-old Mare's track record suggests he's a very average kicker, hitting about 90% from inside the 40 for his career. From 50+ mare has connected on an abysmal 15 of 35 attempts (one of which was a gut-wrenching game winner at Invesco in 2002). His best attribute is his ability to kickoff; he finished 3rd in touchback percentage last season behind Sebastian Janikowski and Broncos incumbent Matt Prater.
Given that Prater is 23 and already on our roster, why sign Mare? This might indicate that the Broncos aren't confident in Prater's ability to handle the job. Once we know the terms of his offer, it may surface that they are merely trying to make Prater compete for the job or providing him with a veteran mentor. One things for sure: if the cost of obtaining Mare's services is anywhere near the price we balked at for Elam, Broncos fans will be extremely displeased.
UPDATE: Thankfully, Mare was signed by Seattle to the tune of 2 years, $3.5 million. That's not a whole lot less than Denver offered Elam, so imagine the mutiny if they had bid against Seattle. I don't know what the solution is at kicker in Denver, but one things for sure: Mare wasn't it. It looks like we're going to see if Prater's leg is for real.
Randy Gradishar Recognized as Defensive Pioneer
| According to an article at Pro Football Weekly, the Pro Football Research Association recently assembled a panel of former NFL players with intimate knowledge of the 3-4. They were asked to name the "All-Time 3-4 Front Seven." Among the starters is Denver Broncos LILB Randy Gradishar. The other nominees are Lee Roy Selmon (DRE Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Curly Culp (NT Kansas City Chiefs), Howie Long (DLE Oakland Raiders), Lawrence Taylor (ROLB New York Giants), Harry Carson (RILB New York Giants), and recent Hall of Fame inductee Andre Tippett (LOLB New England Patriots). Gradishar, Taylor, and Carson all were picked by 70% of the panel or greater. Other winners were more controversial, in many cases receiving less than 50% of the votes. Gradishar's competition included Saints/Panthers LILB Sam Mills (7 votes) and former Redskins/Raiders/49ers LILB Matt Millen (2 votes). |  |
The leader of the "Orange Crush" defense, Gradishar amassed over 150 tackles for 9 straight years, averaging over 200 tackles for his career. He was NFL Defensive MVP in 1978, leading them to an AFC championship (and a loss to the Cowboys in the Super Bowl) with 286 tackles and 4 interceptions. Gradishar was a two-time All-American in college and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting his senior year. Infamous Buckeye's coach Woody Hayes referred to Gradishar as "the best linebacker I ever coached." The Buckeye's award for the best linebacker is called the "Gradishar Award" to this day in his honor. Thanks to Broncotalk.net for the fantastic summary of Gradishar's career. The article I linked has a much more detailed review of his accolades for those who are interested.
Gradishar was snubbed once again by the Hall of Fame selection committee; however, he was listed among the finalists for the first time since he retired. Perhaps this additional recognition will help tip the scales in Gradishar's favor. Given the laundry list of former Broncos who've been snubbed in recent years, the odds are against him.
Ferguson Lands in Houston
Former Broncos SS Nick Ferguson reportedly signed a one-year deal with the Houston Texans. He provides veteran depth to a unit which struggled in 2006. Among our most consistent options at safety since his arrival in 2002, Ferguson was replaced by Hamza Abdullah at safety the final six games of last season. With his departure, Denver has only 5 players left on their roster from the 2005 AFC championship game.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Chiefs Go Big at Wide Receiver
Drawing comparison to the gigantic Jacksonville Jaguars receiving corp, the Chiefs will boast one of the largest receiving corps in the NFL in 2008. Last season, Dante Hall (5'8" 187 lbs.) was dealt to the St. Louis Rams. This off season, Samie Parker (5'11" 190 lbs.) and Eddie Kennison (6'0" 201 lbs.) were both let go. Dwayne Bowe (6'4" 221 lbs.), Jeff Webb (6'2" 211 lbs.), Bowe's cousin Bobby Sippio (6'3" 214 lbs.), and recently signed Raven's castoff Devard Darling (6'1" 215 lbs.) are the revamped 2008 receiving corp.
This shift away from the Vermeil-style speedy receiver is undoubtedly part of Herm Edward's plan to improve the running game and play a more physical style of football. The downside to this strategy is that the Chiefs don't have anyone on their roster to stretch the field (although Tony Gonzalez tends to keep safeties on their toes). While this may make their rushing offense more formidable down field, I think this will ultimately make life a bit easier for Broncos defensive backs.
On a side note, I can't say I'm going to miss playing against Eddie Kennison. After his classless departure from Denver early in his career, he absolute torched our secondary. In 9 games from 2001 to 2005, Kennison averaged 76 yards and .33 touchdowns per game; that includes four 100-yard outings. Kennison has been hampered by injuries the last two seasons. Good riddance.
This shift away from the Vermeil-style speedy receiver is undoubtedly part of Herm Edward's plan to improve the running game and play a more physical style of football. The downside to this strategy is that the Chiefs don't have anyone on their roster to stretch the field (although Tony Gonzalez tends to keep safeties on their toes). While this may make their rushing offense more formidable down field, I think this will ultimately make life a bit easier for Broncos defensive backs.
On a side note, I can't say I'm going to miss playing against Eddie Kennison. After his classless departure from Denver early in his career, he absolute torched our secondary. In 9 games from 2001 to 2005, Kennison averaged 76 yards and .33 touchdowns per game; that includes four 100-yard outings. Kennison has been hampered by injuries the last two seasons. Good riddance.
Grow up, Brandon!
Woody Paige wrote a scathing indictment of Brandon Marshall in today's Denver Post. In it, he claims that Marshall, dubbed "Baby T.O.", may live up to his nickname in more ways than one. In addition to 'horseplay' (and his subsequent lying about it), Marshall is facing DUI charges. He has a history of domestic violence.
Paige also discusses Brandon Marshall's involvement in the Darrient Williams shooting. He claims that Marshall instigated the conflict (which included spraying champagne on his interlocutors) with area gang members that culminated in William's shooting. Marshall has never discussed the incident with the media.
I think I've read this story before; it doesn't end well. The more I learn about Brandon Marshall, the less confident I am that he is a long-term solution at wide receiver. Maybe drafting a wide receiver in round 2 isn't such a bad idea after all.
Paige also discusses Brandon Marshall's involvement in the Darrient Williams shooting. He claims that Marshall instigated the conflict (which included spraying champagne on his interlocutors) with area gang members that culminated in William's shooting. Marshall has never discussed the incident with the media.
I think I've read this story before; it doesn't end well. The more I learn about Brandon Marshall, the less confident I am that he is a long-term solution at wide receiver. Maybe drafting a wide receiver in round 2 isn't such a bad idea after all.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Foxworth Youngest Ever NFLPA Board Member
Congratulations are in order for 24-year-old Dominique Foxworth who just became the youngest player elected to the NFLPA's 10-member executive board in the organizations history. Dominique shares his thoughts on his appointment at his blog.
Fox Colorado reports that Foxworth--a restricted free agent--is being scouted by a number of NFL teams. Denver offered Foxworth a 3rd round tender (the round he was drafted in). If Denver fails to match a competing offer for Foxworth, they'd receive a third round pick as compensation.
Some have argued that Ted Sunquist's attempts to package Foxworth in a deal for Jets Defensive Tackle Dwayne Robertson was the last straw in an already tense relationship with Broncos management. After Sundquist's departure, Foxworth was quickly removed from the table.
These facts leave one wondering how valued Foxworth is to Broncos management. On one hand, he was given an anemic contract offer (given his RFA status). On the other hand, Bowlen and Shanahan seem adamant that he won't be part of any trade. Perhaps Denver is setting the floor low to allow the market to determine Foxworth's value; perhaps they feel that Foxworth is a commodity at his position that doesn't warrant a large cap commitment (this was seemingly their thinking with Chris Myers); or perhaps money is so tight in Denver that they simply don't have the cash to spend. As this off season's free agency period comes to an end, we'll have a clearer picture. Giving another team the opportunity to give Foxworth a lucrative offer or one which contains a poison pill is an awfully big risk if they are, in fact, committed to keeping Dom in town.
Foxworth has performed capably at nickelback in his first two years. He was a veritable utility man last season, filling in at safety where our lackluster unit was ill equipped to compete. Given time, he could emerge as a top-shelf cornerback. Between Javon Walker's mouth, Travis Henry's hair samples and maternity tests, Marcus Thomas's drug problems, and Brandon Marshall's anger management problem (not to mention this idiot), it is refreshing to see a player display such great leadership so early in his career. With such rare intangibles, I would hate to see Denver lose a budding locker room leader to free agency.
Fox Colorado reports that Foxworth--a restricted free agent--is being scouted by a number of NFL teams. Denver offered Foxworth a 3rd round tender (the round he was drafted in). If Denver fails to match a competing offer for Foxworth, they'd receive a third round pick as compensation.
Some have argued that Ted Sunquist's attempts to package Foxworth in a deal for Jets Defensive Tackle Dwayne Robertson was the last straw in an already tense relationship with Broncos management. After Sundquist's departure, Foxworth was quickly removed from the table.
These facts leave one wondering how valued Foxworth is to Broncos management. On one hand, he was given an anemic contract offer (given his RFA status). On the other hand, Bowlen and Shanahan seem adamant that he won't be part of any trade. Perhaps Denver is setting the floor low to allow the market to determine Foxworth's value; perhaps they feel that Foxworth is a commodity at his position that doesn't warrant a large cap commitment (this was seemingly their thinking with Chris Myers); or perhaps money is so tight in Denver that they simply don't have the cash to spend. As this off season's free agency period comes to an end, we'll have a clearer picture. Giving another team the opportunity to give Foxworth a lucrative offer or one which contains a poison pill is an awfully big risk if they are, in fact, committed to keeping Dom in town.
Foxworth has performed capably at nickelback in his first two years. He was a veritable utility man last season, filling in at safety where our lackluster unit was ill equipped to compete. Given time, he could emerge as a top-shelf cornerback. Between Javon Walker's mouth, Travis Henry's hair samples and maternity tests, Marcus Thomas's drug problems, and Brandon Marshall's anger management problem (not to mention this idiot), it is refreshing to see a player display such great leadership so early in his career. With such rare intangibles, I would hate to see Denver lose a budding locker room leader to free agency.
Monday, March 24, 2008
A Look at Denver's Red Zone Efficency
All right Shana-haters, lets talk red zone efficiency. Lately, pundits of the Shanahan regime have argued that his red zone offense is no longer elite, and therefore the game has 'passed him by'. I decided to investigate this oft-cited anti-Shanahan reasoning to put the debate to rest.
Much to the chagrin of the Shana-haters, Denver's red zone offense has been something between average and dominant the last five years--just like our winning percentage. Here are the numbers:
As you can see, claims that Denver's red zone offense is ineffective are factually incorrect. Rather, we've consistently ranked in the top half of the league in both touchdown percentage and scoring percentage in the red zone. The extreme exception to this trend is 2004; a season in which Plummer broke Elway's franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Ironically, this is also the season that Broncos fans cling to when berating Shanahan for putting the handcuffs on Jake the Snake.
Consistent with our 7-9 record last season, our red zone efficiency was slightly below average. Scoring percentage was par for the course while touchdown percentage--as many, many people have noted of late--was ranked a paltry 21st in the league. While 2007 was undoubtedly a statistical slide from previous Broncos seasons, the offense didn't perform that badly when injuries to Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, Henry, Walker, Stokely, and Scheffler (did I miss any non-first-year starter other than Graham and Marshall??) are taken into account.
Finally, the controversial 2006 season in which Plummer was unceremoniously dumped as starting QB was an exemplary year for Denver's offense despite our failure to reach the playoffs. Contrary to popular belief, it was our defense that cost us a championship run rather than the offense under Jay Cutler.
Unfortunately, the Shanahan lynch mob seems to have a short term memory. Shanahan's offensive track record since Elway retired is elite compared to the rest of the league. The Broncos fan base has enjoyed over a decade of competitive excellence in the NFL. The downside to this excess is that 7-10 win seasons have grown stale; Broncos fans are yearning for their team to recapture the Super Bowl years. Let them run Shanahan out of town and feel the sting of a 1-15 season and they'll beat a different drum. With many things in life, we don't value what we have until we've lost it. This is one lesson I'd rather not learn the hard way.
NOTE: My rudimentary HTML skills have me baffled at how to remove the annoying space between the table headers and the tables. Next time I'll just embed a screen shot! If you want a copy of the data you can find it here. All red zone statistics were gathered from Pro Football Weekly.
Much to the chagrin of the Shana-haters, Denver's red zone offense has been something between average and dominant the last five years--just like our winning percentage. Here are the numbers:
| Year | Attempts | Scoring % | Rank | TD % | Rank |
| 2007 | 51 | 0.863 | 16 | 0.49 | 21 |
| 2006 | 44 | 0.977 | 1 | 0.545 | 12 |
| 2005 | 58 | 0.862 | 13 | 0.603 | 7 |
| 2004 | 53 | 0.792 | 28 | 0.453 | 27 |
| 2003 | 56 | 0.875 | 11 | 0.554 | 8 |
| 262 | 0.8738 | 13.8 | 0.529 | 15 |
| Year | Attempts | TD | FG | Scor % | TD % |
| 2007 | 1548 | 809 | 527 | .863 | .523 |
| 2006 | 1521 | 773 | 501 | .837 | .508 |
| 2005 | 1551 | 792 | 528 | .851 | .511 |
| 2004 | 1557 | 839 | 454 | .830 | .539 |
| 2003 | 1522 | 781 | 496 | .839 | .513 |
| 7699 | 3994 | 2506 | .844 | .519 |
As you can see, claims that Denver's red zone offense is ineffective are factually incorrect. Rather, we've consistently ranked in the top half of the league in both touchdown percentage and scoring percentage in the red zone. The extreme exception to this trend is 2004; a season in which Plummer broke Elway's franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Ironically, this is also the season that Broncos fans cling to when berating Shanahan for putting the handcuffs on Jake the Snake.
Consistent with our 7-9 record last season, our red zone efficiency was slightly below average. Scoring percentage was par for the course while touchdown percentage--as many, many people have noted of late--was ranked a paltry 21st in the league. While 2007 was undoubtedly a statistical slide from previous Broncos seasons, the offense didn't perform that badly when injuries to Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, Henry, Walker, Stokely, and Scheffler (did I miss any non-first-year starter other than Graham and Marshall??) are taken into account.
Finally, the controversial 2006 season in which Plummer was unceremoniously dumped as starting QB was an exemplary year for Denver's offense despite our failure to reach the playoffs. Contrary to popular belief, it was our defense that cost us a championship run rather than the offense under Jay Cutler.
Unfortunately, the Shanahan lynch mob seems to have a short term memory. Shanahan's offensive track record since Elway retired is elite compared to the rest of the league. The Broncos fan base has enjoyed over a decade of competitive excellence in the NFL. The downside to this excess is that 7-10 win seasons have grown stale; Broncos fans are yearning for their team to recapture the Super Bowl years. Let them run Shanahan out of town and feel the sting of a 1-15 season and they'll beat a different drum. With many things in life, we don't value what we have until we've lost it. This is one lesson I'd rather not learn the hard way.
NOTE: My rudimentary HTML skills have me baffled at how to remove the annoying space between the table headers and the tables. Next time I'll just embed a screen shot! If you want a copy of the data you can find it here. All red zone statistics were gathered from Pro Football Weekly.
Worrysome Wonderlic Scores
The Chicago Tribune leaked the Wonderlic test results of most consensus first round picks in this years draft. Surprisingly, very few prospects performed poorly. Only three players received bad marks: OT Ryan Clady of Boise St., OLB Keith Rivers of USC, and S Kenny Phillips of Miami, who scored 13, 16, and 16 respectively (20 is 'average intelligence'). Much to the dismay of Broncos fans, all three have been liberally mentioned as front runners for Denver's 12th overall pick next month. Here's hoping the draft analysts are incorrect (as usual).
Bored Media Proliferates Meaningless Story
For those of you who didn't read it at the 63,000 other media sites that can't stop talking about it, Brandon Marshall slipped on a McDonald's wrapper and is in a cast. This is expected to have no impact on his preparedness for the 2008 season.
In related news, his DUI proceedings were postponed. I was going to show you the oft-played film of Brandon Marshall AT his DUI hearing IN his cast (how's that for killing two birds with one stone), but decided I'd rather watch some sick Brandon Marshall highlights instead, enjoy:
UPDATE: And so the drama continues. Adam Schefter, Chief NFL propagandist, (the same guy who, falsely, said Eli would miss 6-8 weeks with his separated shoulder in 2007) is reporting that Marshall's injury was (a) not caused by a McDonald's bag and (b) much more serious than originally reported. This will reportedly have no impact on his preparedness for the upcoming season. So relax and watch the sick highlight video.
UPDATE #2: The whole story was fabricated to spare Marshall the humiliation of admitting he was rough-housing with a relative (who knows if that's even the correct story). Anyway, Adam Schefter is exonerated (for now). Marshall's injury was pretty serious, but he's not expected to miss the start of training camp.
In related news, his DUI proceedings were postponed. I was going to show you the oft-played film of Brandon Marshall AT his DUI hearing IN his cast (how's that for killing two birds with one stone), but decided I'd rather watch some sick Brandon Marshall highlights instead, enjoy:
The Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall Show
UPDATE: And so the drama continues. Adam Schefter, Chief NFL propagandist, (the same guy who, falsely, said Eli would miss 6-8 weeks with his separated shoulder in 2007) is reporting that Marshall's injury was (a) not caused by a McDonald's bag and (b) much more serious than originally reported. This will reportedly have no impact on his preparedness for the upcoming season. So relax and watch the sick highlight video.
UPDATE #2: The whole story was fabricated to spare Marshall the humiliation of admitting he was rough-housing with a relative (who knows if that's even the correct story). Anyway, Adam Schefter is exonerated (for now). Marshall's injury was pretty serious, but he's not expected to miss the start of training camp.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
The Unfolding Elam Melodrama
I haven't read much Brian Lincicome, but this article earned him a spot on my list of sports analysts who don't think before they speak (chief among them: Len Pasquarelli). What a diatribe! In it, Lincicome makes the following obtuse statement:
Had Lincicome read his own newspaper's content, he'd have figured this out sooner:
Thus, Denver made Elam an initial offer--a very lucrative offer at that--and Atlanta simply made him a better offer. This was essentially a double-blind auction for Elam's services and Denver was outbid. Now Atlanta has their prize (winner's curse?). I think Atlanta overpaid. That's business.
Please Lincicome, if you are going to write a melodrama, at least get your facts straight.
"Considering, it is not so strange then that since Elam is responsible for the Broncos appearing better than they are that he should be kissed off.
A fine bonus for 15 years of loyal, effective and consistent service, always there, always ready and nearly always accurate. There will remain a space among the Ring of Fame for Elam eventually, up there with Jim Turner whose kicking records Elam eradicated.
This was Elam’s choice, but only in the Corleone sense of things. Atlanta made Elam an offer he could refuse if Denver had been in any way interested, and if Elam were five years younger, could still kick off the ball into the end zone, the Broncos would have been much less shortsighted."
Had Lincicome read his own newspaper's content, he'd have figured this out sooner:
"One of the Falcons’ fears was that Elam would use them as a pawn in negotiations with the Broncos, who’d eventually get an opportunity to match. But Elam made it clear to Denver as far back as January that he wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that, no matter what team he might consider once free agency started."
Thus, Denver made Elam an initial offer--a very lucrative offer at that--and Atlanta simply made him a better offer. This was essentially a double-blind auction for Elam's services and Denver was outbid. Now Atlanta has their prize (winner's curse?). I think Atlanta overpaid. That's business.
Please Lincicome, if you are going to write a melodrama, at least get your facts straight.
Hamilton Cleared to Practice
Good news. The Rocky Mountain Times is reporting that Broncos Guard Ben Hamilton--recovering from post-concussion symptoms--was cleared to participate in off-season workout programs. Hamilton and Broncos management are optimistic he'll be healthy in 2008. Lets hope so.
Filling Elam's Shoes
| The Denver Post reports that 23-year-old kickoff specialist Matt Prater is the incumbent front runner for Jason Elam's former job. Prater joined Denver last year as a kickoff specialist after being dismissed by the Falcons. He is expected to have some competition for the job. Free agents John Carney and Olindo Mare are likely to compete. Mike Vanderjagt--in an attempt to resurrect his career--could also emerge as a competitor. Tennessee's Rob Bironas--fresh off a pro-bowl year--is a restricted free agent; however, Bironas was given a second round tender by Tennessee, which probably prices him out of the market. There is no question that Prater has a powerful leg: his 45.5% touchback percentage last year was twice that of the next best player in the NFL; however, in four career attempts, he's only made one field goal. In 2006 he showed both accuracy and range as a walk-on for the Detroit Lions but was unable to oust incumbent John Hansen to secure the job. Was Prater prematurely cut by the monomaniacal Bobby Petrino? Only time will tell. |
Ultimately, I expect Prater to win the job. Even if his accuracy is a concern, Prater's leg on kickoffs is a distinctive competency on special teams in an era of game-breaking kick returners. Also, Prater is very young; his upside is huge when compared to more expensive options like John Carney or the corrosive prima donna Mike Vanderjagt.
While Elam will most certainly be missed, I commend Broncos management for making a shrewd management decision. When calculating Elam's true cost, most analysts have failed to site the implicit value of the extra roster slot garnered by his departure. I thought his contract offer was more than generous; when you consider the intrinsic value of the extra roster slot, he was arguably overcompensated at $2.33 million guaranteed.
Nevertheless, I'd like to thank Jason Elam for a great career in Denver. We have just parted with the greatest kicker in Broncos history--a distinction he'll likely carry for decades to come. Happy trails.
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Rocky Mountain Fever is one die-hard fan's outlet for Broncos opinion and analysis. Of course, in the blogosphere we all subscribe to the belief that 'if a tree falls in the woods, and no one's around to hear it, it doesn't make a sound' (otherwise, what's the point?); thus, your questions, comments, feedback, or other intelligent thoughts are desired. Please help make this a source of great conversation for Broncos enthusiasts.
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