Rivers Top Gun in West???

Someone please tell me that this article by Denver Post writer Jim Armstrong is just some belated April fools joke. What in the world is this guy talking about?

"Frankly, given the state of the AFC West these days, Rivers has every right to chirp.

When it comes to quarterbacks, Rivers is the man for all seasons in the West. He's the best quarterback in the division and the most experienced. He has won 25-of-32 starts and twice taken the Chargers to the playoffs.

The other starting quarterbacks in the West? For one thing, they have lots of potential. For another . . . um, did we mention they have lots of potential?"

Hmm...let's take a look at some highlights from the 2007 and 2008 pro bowl rosters:

Ladanian Tomlinson (hall of famer) (both years)
Antonio Gates (hall of famer) (both years)
Lorenzo Neal (hall of famer) (both years)
Marcus McNeil OT (both years)
Kris Dielhman OG (2008)
Nick Hardwick C (both years)
Jamal Williams DT (both years)
Shawn Merriman OLB (both years)
Antonio Cromartie CB (2008)
Kassim Osgood ST (both years)
Nate Kaeding K (2007)
David Binn LS (2007)

That's 12 pro bowlers and three hall of famers! And Philip Rivers is top gun, why, because he plays for these guys?

Lets take a look at another set of statistics:

Jay Cutler:	Philip Rivers
QB Rating: 88.1	QB Rating: 82.4
YPA: 7.5	YPA: 6.9
Comp %: 63.6	Comp %: 60.2
Total TD: 21	Total TD: 22
Total TO's: 18	Total TO's: 21
Total Yd's: 3702	Total Yd's: 3185

Rivers is the better QB? Really? Last I checked, Cutler didn't hold a clipboard for Drew Brees for 2 years either.

There are few things more annoying than seeing this kind of jabberwocky spewed from the pen of a Denver Broncos beat writer. At least if it were an AP article the Denver Post could feign ignorance.

Of course, no statistic measures class. In that category, Philip Rivers is dead last in the NFL:


Great story Denver Post! Some of you may recall last Saturday I had similar sentiments for "Chief Asshole" Philip Rivers. The video at this link is exactly the same. It's not like there is a paucity of Rivers hate videos on the internet, but after his deplorable behavior week 5, what could possibly make you angrier?

Dissecting Denver's Pass Protection

Headed in to week 15 last season, Denver had a disappointing 6-7 record. In a road stretch against Houston (on TNF) and San Diego, getting back to .500 to dampen our disappointment weighed heavy on the minds of Broncos fans. Disaster struck. Denver was walloped in both games as Cutler constantly succumbed to pressure; sacked 9 times, Denver's offensive line seemed incapable of keeping our franchise quarterback upright. The timing of this traumatic stretch seems to have taken an inexorable toll on Broncos fans: offensive line is largely viewed as the principle need of the organization. Echoing the sentiment of many fans, one Rocky Mountain Fever commenter recently argued the following:

"I have to disagree with your false comfort regarding our O-line. They were absolutely dominated in multiple occasions (Texas, SD x2, Green Bay, Chiefs, Raiders and Detroit) and had Cutler throwing off of his back foot all season. We need to follow the success of past Super Bowl champion teams (ie Gary Zimmerman) and build around our franchise QB...I am not at all comfortable with our O-line situation when the most important position's current choices are a natural Guard, 3rd round pick with no playing experience and an undrafted Pears who failed at the RT spot last year." -the1one

With the most talented crop at offensive tackle the NFL has seen in years, it seems logical that we'd grab the top guy in the first round, right? Well, as I've argued many times, I don't think that's the solution. Far and away, the largest criticism of my opinion is that Denver's offensive line is an ineffective pass blocking unit. In this article, I'm going to evaluate the performance of our offensive line from a statistical standpoint and make some inferences about the strength of our unit.

There are some difficulties in evaluating the sacks a given quarterback suffered in a given season. First, not all quarterbacks play all 16 games. Second, some systems--like Philadelphia--will pass the ball 65% of the time; others--like Denver--tend to be a little more run heavy. Given these tendencies, there are fewer opportunities to sack a quarterback in the latter vs. the former. To normalize these concerns, I decided to focus on two statistics: sacks per game and attempts per sack (aka "sack rate"). Of these two, attempts per sack is perhaps the most useful because it is the closest thing to a sack rate we can decipher using simple statistics. To simplify the list, I only included Quarterbacks who made at least 8 starts and at least 200 pass attempts. Here's the data:


You can also download a .pdf version here and a spreadsheet with all regression results here.

Looking at these numbers, a couple of things become clear:

• Cutler's pass protection was not abysmal last year, as some have argued, but rather only very average. He ranked 15th in attempts/sack and 17th in sacks/game. I might point out, however, that when controlling for the horrendous meltdown in weeks 15 and 16, Cutler was sacked only 1.3 times per game or once every 22 pass attempts. These adjustment catapult Cutler into the top 10 in both categories.
  
  I suspect the reflexive reaction of naysayers will be to claim that the poor performance coincides with the injuries sustained to the offensive line (and by extension that we can expect to get worse, without upgrading in the draft). That's simply not true. Lepsis, Nalen, and Hamilton were all long gone by mid-October. Over the next 10 weeks, Denver faced 8 of the top 15 pass rushes (5 of them top 10) in the NFL. In all but those two games, the offensive line play was exceptional, allowing no more than 2 sacks in any game.
  
  
• While the list of sack rate leaders is top heavy with pro bowlers, there certainly are some exceptions to this trend. By far worst on the list, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked once every 6.8 pass attempts (more than thrice a game) despite boasting the leagues second-best QB rating. Despite having Walter Jones pass blocking, Matt Hasselbeck hit the turf more than his 28 touchdowns and 91.4 passer rating might suggest. David Garrard, despite throwing only 3 interceptions and boasting a 102.2 passer rating, was also sacked at a higher rate than Cutler.
  
  Thus, being average in these metrics is arguably not an unmanageable situation. As the1one points out, however, in a division with Jared Allen, Sean Merriman, and perhaps Vernon Gholston, Denver might have to take the left tackle position a little more seriously than the "average" team. That's fair criticism; but I'm not sure that convinces me we should spend 12th-pick money on an answer--or that the answer isn't necessarily on our roster.

Next, I want to take a look at some qualitative data on the source of our sack totals. Let's start with some data; here's a list of every player that sacked Jay Cutler in 2008:

BUF DT James McCargo: 1.0 sacks
OAK DT Gerrard Warren: 1.0 sacks
OAK S Michael Huff: 1.0 sacks
JAC DRE Reggie Hayward: 1.0 sacks
IND DRE Dwight Freeney: 1.0 sacks
PIT ILB Jerome Harrison: 1.0 sacks
PIT LOLB Lamar Woodley: 1.0 sacks
GNB DLE Aaron Kampman: 3.0 sacks
DET DT Shaun Rogers: 1.0 sacks
DET LOLB Ernie Sims: 0.5 sacks
DET DLE Jared Devries: 0.5 sacks
KAN RDE Jared Allen: 1.0 sacks
TEN FS V. Fuller: 1.0 sacks
CHI DRE Adwale Ogunleye: 2.0 sacks
OAK DLE Jay Richardson: 1.0 sacks
KAN DT Tambia Hali: 1.0 sacks
HOU DRE Mario Williams: 3.5 sacks
HOU DRE N.D. Kalu: 1.5 sacks
SDG LOLB Shaun Phillips: 1.0 sacks
SDG DLE Igor Olshansky: 1.0 sacks
SDG DRE Luis Castillo: 1.0 sacks
SDG SS Clinton Hart: 1.0 sacks
MIN ROLB Ben Leber: 1.0 sacks
(bold-type players faced Denver after Lepsis's season-ending injury)

Players in bold are those that logged sacks after Lepsis was lost against Jacksonville. Again a couple of things stand out:

• Only 9 of Cutler's 27 sacks were allowed to defensive right ends. 5 of these were delivered by Mario Williams and his backup N.D. Kalu. Clearly that game was an abomination; however, don't discount the possibility that it was also an anomaly. Denver faced 11 of the top 15 pass rushes in the league last season. Despite this, our sack totals are pretty average. The list of right ends that managed to bring Cutler down:
  
  Dwight Freeney (1)
  Adwale Ogunleye (1)
  Mario Williams (3.5)
  Luis Castillo (1)
  N.D. Kalu (1.5)
  Jared Allen (1)
  
  It's hard to get upset about that list. Some of these guys are going to get their sacks no matter who you have back there.
  
  
• Here's a breakdown of sacks allowed by DT, LRE, and SS/LB/CB:
  
  DT: 4 sacks
  LRE: 5.5 sacks (3.0 by Aaron Kampman)
  SS/LB/CB: 8.5 sacks (nobody has more than 1.0 sack)
  
  This data seems to argue that we were most susceptible against the blitz. To me, this is a gleaming endorsement of our need to draft a capable pass-blocker at running back, not at tackle. Travis Henry was supposed to be that guy; when he's healthy, maybe he is, but I certainly didn't see it last year and have considerable doubts about his durability headed into 2008.

There's no doubt that Denver will address their need for offensive line depth on draft day. The popular assertion that Denver will reach for a tackle in the first round based on a perceived positional need lacks historical, statistical, or qualitative credibility. A bigger need may ultimately be the selection of a third-down back with the versatility to serve as a potent offensive weapon and a capable pass protector.

In two weeks, we shall see...

Saturday Morning Miscellany

Once you choke through a painful lead section which juxtaposes Chad Johnson and Brandon Marshall in nauseating fashion, Mike Klis had a couple of interesting things to say this morning; however, the triviality of what follows is symptomatic of a media starved for material as we impatiently wait for the 2008 NFL Draft to begin in two weeks. Isn't it a shame we don't have some tantalizing headlines to carry through a difficult time?

Marcus Thomas writes a bad check. . . to his mother!

Brandon Marshall recants: McDonald's bag was the true culprit; Marshall sues.

Elway assaulted in dark alley, blames Cutler.

Sundquist on Shanahan: "He must be stopped"

Okay, Klis actually had some things worth mentioning. Here they are:

• Apparently Texans Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan and father Mike aren't talking right now. The Texan's--who are seven picks removed from Denver on April 26th--feel their draft needs are so similar to Denver's in this years draft that Kyle doesn't want to tip their hand. Consequently, Mike and Kyle have agreed not to talk to each other until May.
  
  
• Former Broncos ILB Al Wilson balked at a contract offer from the Cleveland Browns for the league minimum. According to the article, Wilson feels his pro bowl resume warrants more consideration than $730,000.
  
  
• 
  

  In defense of Chief Asshole and mediocre Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, Norv Turner had the following to say: "Philip took some heat over some things, yelling from the sideline . . . which was silly," Chargers coach Norv Turner said. "One shot of a guy, people get this opinion, which is so far from the truth. Philip's one of the most grounded people you're ever going to be around."

  
  
  "One shot," eh? Did anyone see the Colts playoff game last year? Make no mistake about it Broncos fan, Rivers is to Cutler like Brian Bosworth was to Elway. And like Elway, it will be Cutler who laughs last. Burn this into your memory, so that you are utterly remorseless the next time we destroy the Chargers on the football field:
  
  

That's all I've got this morning. Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Elway's Distracting Comments Out of Line

As I browse through my daily Broncos RSS feeds, my left eye twitches a bit every time I see another saga in the Cutler-Marshall soap opera in which so many of us have become enamored. I'm going to cut to the chase; here's the bottom line: Brandon Marshall behaved like an idiot, he's gonna be ready for training camp, its over. Get over it.

Let's retrace history a bit. Brandon Marshall admits to "slipping on a McDonald's bag" (a lie). The media--smelling one of the centuries stupidest lies--attack like piranha. Just to inject some ethos into this conversation, recall that I was sick of this fiasco on day one. Shortly thereafter, Woody Paige derides Marshall, telling him to "grow up." Let me preface this by saying that I'm not a big Woody Paige fan. He annoys me. But to me, this comment was right on the money. To which Marshall responds in tabloid fashion. Yada, yada, yada...

So what exactly is Jay Cutler supposed to do? Does a team leader defend a guy who just showed up to a DUI hearing in an arm cast? The answer is simple: it's a lose-lose. If he defends Marshall he's not a leader; if he criticizes him, he's too outspoken. Really, I think Cutler spoke eloquently. His reaction was pretty much what you'd expect.

When did John Elway become a part of this conversation? Here were his recent comments on the issue:

"I was surprised to hear it, actually," Elway said Wednesday during his Colorado Crush Arena Football League news conference. "If that's what Jay feels like he needs to comment on, then he needs to do that. I mean, personally, I would have done it to (Marshall). To me, as teammates — even though I've tried to settle things in the press, looking back over the years, it's not been the right way to do it."

Is it just me or do these comments stink of hypocrisy? The message here is "always criticize privately." Oh really, John? I cannot side with the apologists here who will say that Elway is "just a guy" with every right to voice his opinion. I don't buy that. Elway is more than just a former player; he's an institution. In some ways, he's a euphemism for the whole organization. As a leader, an institution, and perhaps a future owner, I would think he'd be less incendiary.

One could argue that it would be less damaging for Bowlen himself to criticize Cutler. Suppose Isiah Thomas were to criticize the coaching ability of Phil Jackson. Would Jackson care? Would anybody listen? Now suppose Alan Greenspan--a (perhaps unwarranted) world-renowned monetary policy hero--steps in front of a microphone and criticizes Ben Bernanke in the middle of a financial crisis (sound familiar?). Bernanke's job just got a whole lot harder. How irresponsible.

Some of my fondest childhood memories are of seeing John Elway's brilliance on the football field. I'm as big an Elway fan as you'll find; but no matter how I rationalize, I simply disagree with his tact in this situation. I think he should heed his own advice and criticize Cutler behind closed doors. Cutler already works hard enough to stay out of Elway's shadow; give the kid a break.

Of course, if the media didn't proliferate this sickeningly-sensationalized soap opera, its reverberations wouldn't be so frustrating. In an age where the most outrageous journalists seem to garner the most 'clicks', this seems to be what sells. Ultimately, the fans have the power to end the conversation: stop reading.

Speaking of Cutler criticism; this video is some of the best criticism of Cutler I've seen. Enjoy!


Jay_Cutler_2007_Video.wmv

Cutler Criticizes Marshall

Things between Cutler and Marshall seem a little heated based on Cutler's comments in today's Rocky Mountain News. It sounds like Cutler is just as fed up with reading about Marshall's problems as we are.

Is a Broncos Return to the Super Bowl Near?

Not if you ask Denver Post reporter Mike Klis. In his latest 'Mailbag' column, Klis had the following not-so-insightful comment:

The careers of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning do come into play regarding the Broncos' Super Bowl aspirations. I'm going to assume those two quarterbacks have not won their last Super Bowls. ...Even if the Broncos put together another 13-3 season in, say, 2009, would they be able to get past Brady and Manning in the postseason?

For now, I'll say this: With Jay Cutler as their quarterback, the Broncos will be in good shape to make a Super Bowl run as soon as Brady and Manning slip. If I knew exactly when the fade of those great quarterbacks will occur, I'd probably be asked to take on tasks less fulfilling than opening letters from the Broncos Mailbag.

A cursory glance at the history of the Super Bowl should tell us that this logic is flawed. Recall, it was Eli Manning, rather than Tom Brady who took home the Super Bowl ring last season. I also remember another Manning brother getting ousted by the always-unsportsmanlike Philip Rivers week 2. Glancing back at Super Bowl history, this argument makes even less sense. Here's a short list of less-than-godlike Super Bowl champion quarterbacks over the last 30 years:

• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (2006). A rookie, no less. Not to mention, one who threw 23 picks and only 18 touchdowns the following season.
  
  
• Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay (2005). The quarterback position was a disaster for this team the whole year. Johnson started three games and the entire postseason after the Bucs lost Griese to injury and a failed Shaun King experiment.
  
  
• Trent Dilfer, Baltimore (2001). He was probably the 11th best player on this stacked offense that featured a 2000 yard rusher, but landed the Disneyworld endorsement over a recently acquitted Ray Lewis (MVP) nevertheless.
  
  
• Mark Rypien, Washington (1992). Rypien certainly had a great season (league MVP/Super Bowl MVP) but didn't last another year in the league after this anomalous run.
  
  
• Jeff Hostetler, New York (1991). Tuna looked like he was cooked when Phil Simms broke his foot in the AFC championship.
  
  
• Doug Williams, Washington (1988). Gibbs engineered another Super Bowl with no hall of fame quarterback on the roster.
  
  
• Jim McMahon, Chicago (1986). McMahon might be the cockiest quarterback in league history, but he's no where near the best. In the mold of Trent Dilfer, McMahon was asked not to lose the game but not expected to win it.
  
  
• Jim Plunkett, Oakland (1984; 1981). Plunkett has a career passer rating of 67.1. He threw 167 touchdowns and 198 interceptions for his career. He was aged 37 when he won this championship. Plunkett arguably holds the dubious distinction of being the worst quarterback to ever win two Super Bowls (Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese are probably the other two candidates).

How much worse is Cutler than Brady or Manning? The answer is probably, "not as bad as you think." Cutler was tied with Manning for third in the NFL with 14 interceptions last season (for 16-game starters). He also completed 63.1% of his passes his first full season as an NFL starter. Cutler's 7.5 YPA is above average and will improve as the receiving core continues to improve. Cutler finished the second half of the season on a pace to have 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If you have a 2:1 TD-Int ratio in the NFL, you're doing something right.

Cutler throws the ball as hard as Favre or Elway, he's extremely accurate for a first year starter, and he's mobile. His low pick totals are a credit to his poise under pressure and awareness. Despite losing 3 starters on the offensive line, Cutler got better and better as the season progressed.

Really, we have no idea what Cutler's upside is, but its bootless to say that he simply should wait for Brady and Manning to retire. If that's true, Cutler will be 30 before we've even got a shot at a ring. I just don't buy that.

This year, the Patriots lost pro-bowler Asante Samuel, safety Eugene Wilson, and defensive lineman Roosevelt Colvin. Vrabel, Seau, Bruschi, and Harrison don't have much gas left in the tank. Adalius Thomas is in his 30's. If the Patriots are standing in our way, they better reload that defense. My guess is that Belichick retires either this year or in 2009. With the youth movement in Denver, there's no reason we can't be a Super Bowl competitor in the next two to three years.