Sunday, April 20, 2008

Robertson Reportedly Costs a 2nd Rounder

TSN's AFC West Draft Preview reports that Dwayne Robertson's price tag is the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick. Earlier this month, several news sources suggested that Robertson would cost two of Denver's 4th through 6th round picks. Since then, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have entered the market for Robertson, driving his price up. This is an astonishingly-high price to pay for a perennial underachiever with a bone-on-bone knee condition. If Robertson's reported cost is factually correct, I would be shocked (and enraged) if Denver made this deal.

The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.

3 comments:

Kyle said...

I completely disagree with this TSN article, and I get the feeling you do too. Robertson for a 2nd rounder? The Bengals trade earlier was for a 4th and a 5th! If it was good enough then, that much should be MORE than enough given he failed his physical.

Maybe the Jets will just give everyone the finger and just keep the bastard themselves... this is getting ridiculous. I'm glad the Broncos aren't overpaying for this guy. If they were caving to NYJ's demands the deal would be done already. Hardball both ways it seems.

Michael said...

I would rather draft Chad Henne in Round 2 than Dwayne Robertson. I couldn't be more repulsed at the thought of throwing away a pick on a gimpy DT with about a 75% chance of retiring in 2 years. Can Philly, Cincy, and Denver be that dumb? No, I don't think TSN is 'in the know' on this one.

I will say this: the Jets have patiently created a market for Robertson. With at least 3 teams (its also been reported that Carolina could be entering the competition) competing for his services, his market price is sure to increase. The term 'winners curse' comes to mind. I sure hope we aren't the winner.

For a 4th rounder, I'd rather roll the dice on Guion or Bryant, even if it means our run defense suffers in 2008. We aren't a Super Bowl ready team, so if we have to sacrifice short-term quality for long-term viability, I can live with it.

Thanks for commenting, Kyle.

Michael said...

I actually think that Koutouvides is a great backup at MLB. I'm not convinced hes a long-term solution. I like the Curtis Lofton pick in the 2nd round. I also like Jonathan Goff in round 6. I think Denver will add at least 1 linebacker in this year's draft.

DT is obviously a huge need. I think Denver will look to add more of the two gap variety rather than going after 3-technique guys like Sims and Harrison. Balmer is a possibility but only in the event that we trade down. Of the group, I like Rubin in round 4, Bryant in round 4, Guion in round 4, and Hayden in round 6.

You and I have differed on this offensive line needs question. If Cherilius were somehow available at #42, I think he'd be the perfect solution for Denver early. He'd provide immediate guard depth and could move into the right tackle spot as early as next season. He's a formidable run blocker from both positions.

At RB I recently spoke of Cory Boyd, Alley Broussard, and Michael Forte as options that can be had on or after the 4th round. I'm completely sold on Mendenhall and think he'd make a huge impact immediately in our system. That said, I think it's possible to address this need later.

The reason I don't like Mike Hart is size. I think we need a guy who weighs a minimum of 215 if we want a 300-carry type. Kevin Smith fits that profile. Smith narrowly missed my 'best-value' pick list for several reasons. First, he doesn't have the acceleration to beat NFL athletes to the corner. Given how much Shanahan likes to run outside the tackles, this could really inhibit his production in our system. Second, he was negligently absorbing contact in the film I saw on him. He runs too tall and I don't think he'll stay healthy, being that he's someone who initiates a lot of contact. To me, Michael Forte is everything that Kevin Smith is without these mitigating factors. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see Shanahan go this route for the right price.

Thanks for commenting again. I'm looking forward to this weekend too!