Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Latest Draft Stock Watch

Pro Football Weekly just released their latest draft value chart. Please note that these draft values are based on their assessment of where a player will be drafted and not necessarily a hierarchy of the best talents. In order of Denver's principle needs in this year's draft, here are some thoughts:

  • Defensive Tackle: Athyba Rubin has solidified himself as a late 3rd-rounder, meaning Denver would likely have to put together a trade to move up to select him. Letroy Guion, a player I've tagged "most likely to be drafted by Denver" has moved to the top ten picks in round 4, where Denver happens to have a draft pick.

  • Running Back: Jonathan Stewart has skyrocketed into the top 10 picks. Should he be there at 12, I would be shocked if Denver passed on him. Not only is he a good fit for our scheme, he's got great size, speed, and would fill an instant need in the return game. Felix Jones has solidly moved himself into the first round. Jones is a great pass blocker, a fantastic kick returner, he has soft hands, and he's got world-class speed. He lacks the size to be an every-down back in the NFL, but as a 3rd-down back, receiver, and kick return specialist, he's got tremendous value. Rashard Mendenhall still sits right around #12; he's a pure zone rusher and has the size to be an every-down running back. He's another possibility.

  • Offensive Tackle: Clady and Williams have both dropped considerably. Clady--once considered a top eight pick--has slipped a bit and may be available when Denver selects 12th. To justify Albert, Otah, or Williams, Denver would likely want to move down a few picks. Clady is arguably the best-fit tackle for Denver's zone blocking scheme. Should he fall to us at 12, I think they'd strongly consider selecting him despite our youth at the position.

  • Wide Receiver: Devin Thomas has solidified himself as the top wide receiver available. He could go as early as #11. Limas Sweed maintains pole position over Desean Jackson around #20. Jackson should be around much longer. Malcolm Kelly has plunged to the middle of the 2nd round after his outburst last week and his marajuana admissions. Earl Bennett has plunged to the bottom of the 3rd round. If he slips into round 4, I think he's a good value; however, I still think he's a little high in round 3.

  • Strong Safety: There are zero safeties projecting into the first round this year. If Denver covets Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan, both should be there with our second pick. This is not a deep safety class so the drop off is precipitous.

  • Inside Linebacker: Jerrod Mayo has leapfrogged all prospects in this category; although, he probably doesn't translate to MLB in the NFL. He's more of a WLB type given his size and skill set. Curtis Lofton has moved himself firmly ahead of Dan Conner, but neither figures to be a first round pick. There has been some speculation that San Francisco will grab Lofton with their top pick, but that speculation appears to be waning. Lofton looks like he could slip to us in round 2 and would receive my nod for the best prospect available. I hope we draft him. Jonathan Goff is astonishingly listed at the bottom of round 6. I'd be happy if Denver spent any second-day pick on him.


That sums up our principle needs. Check out the article for a full breakdown!

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