In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:
- 23% of Denver's running plays were for 10+ yards (a large amount).
- Denver was ranked 32nd in the NFL in Power Success Percentage, the percentage of 2nd/3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 plays that resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
- Denver was 20th in the league in Stuffed Percentage, the percentage of running plays which resulted in zero yardage or negative yards.
- Selvin Young ranked 40th and Travis Henry ranked 27th in Success Percentage, a statistic which tabulates "success" or "fail" for each run dependent on the down and distance.
Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:
- The loss of Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, and Henry (for most of the year) dealt a painful blow to our rushing attack in 2007. Denver will likely benefit from the return of at least half this cast (assuming a minimum of either Hamilton or Henry make it back).
- Denver needs to inject some youth into the offensive line in this year's draft. Right tackle and guard are the principle areas of need.
- Denver could use a third down back with better pass-blocking and route-running ability than Selvin Young, although, Selvin was serviceable in the role given his 10+ yard run tally.
- Denver needs a workhorse back to fix its power running game. With Lepsis, Henry, Hamilton, and Nalen healthy after 4 weeks, Henry had zero touchdowns to show for his league-leading yardage. Denver's red zone touchdown percentage was among the worst its had in years, and the running game is a huge reason for this; more on this in a second.
This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:
Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.
Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:
| PLAYER: | WEIGHT: |
| Cad. Williams | 217 |
| Chester Taylor | 213 |
| Clinton Portis | 223 |
| Corey Dillon | 225 |
| Curtis Martin | 210 |
| Domanick Davis | 221 |
| Edgerrin James | 220 |
| Frank Gore | 223 |
| Jamal Lewis | 245 |
| L. Tomlinson | 221 |
| Larry Johnson | 230 |
| LenDale White | 235 |
| Reuben Droughns | 220 |
| Rudi Johnson | 214 |
| Shaun Alexander | 228 |
| Steven Jackson | 232 |
| Thomas Jones | 215 |
| Tiki Barber | 205 |
| Willie Parker | 209 |
| Willis McGahee | 232 |
Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.
It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.
So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.
Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:
#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.
#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.
#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.
#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.
#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:
An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.
Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.
Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.
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