Signalizing Selvin Young's Success

Mile High Report has a fantastic breakdown of rushing metrics for Broncos RB Selvin Young. In it, author super7 argues that Selvin Young boasted the leagues 4th best yards per touch (YPT) in the NFL last season. Both his logic and his methodology are agreeable; I think this is a meaningful statistic. I am, however, going to play devil's advocate in this article, arguing instead that Selvin Young is not only unfit to be an every-down starter, but also that he isn't a long-term solution as a third-down back.

What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.

A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.

Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:

• Power Success: This statistic is the percentage of 3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 runs which resulted in a first down or touchdown. Ranked 32nd, Denver was the absolute worst team in the league in this category. In short, our power running game is nonexistent. Historically speaking, Denver's power success percentage has been dominant--typically in the 60's.
  
  
• Stuffed: This is the percentage of run plays which resulted in zero gain or a loss of yards. Denver was average in this category and ranked an unimpressive 20th in the league. Again, this is indicative of our lousy power running game. In the 2000's, Denver ranked no less than 5th in this category until last year, when we dropped to 15th. We haven't recovered.
  
  
• 10+ Yard Plays: This is the number of plays that go for 10+ yards. Last season, 23% of Denver's rushing plays were of this variety. This is really the statistic that tells the story of Selvin Young. In 15 games last season, he had 8 runs for 10+ yards (7 of them for 20+) and 6 receptions for 10+ yards. These 14 plays accounted for exactly 1/3rd of Selvin Young's total scrimmage yards last season.

Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.

Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:

• Defensive Value-Over-Average (DVOA): Adjusting for opponent run defense, this metric measures how much better this running back performed than average. Because a player can be worse than average, this value can be negative. In this category, Selvin Young is ranked 24th and is 11.2% better than average. Not surprising (likely for reasons discussed earlier), a host of other third down backs like Kenny Watson, Marion Barber, and Laurence Maroney litter the top of this list.
  
  
• Success Rate: For every run, a player either succeeds or he doesn't. The definition of success is different for each down and distance. Selvin Young is a paltry 40th ranked in this category with 43% success. Travis Henry is ranked 27th.

Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:

"A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage."

Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.

As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.

If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.

Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.