Denver to Draft...Sweed?

The first year I subscribed to ESPN the magazine, I was overjoyed to open my mailbox and see their latest novella of sports geekiness. The Mag was both thick and chock full of intriguing content. When I get it today, I glance at the cover, scoffing at its inept weight and waning thickness, wondering why I pay so much for so little. It's usually neglected outright unless I find myself short on reading material on my way to the porcelain palace.

Imagine my surprise to thumb through the pages of the April 21st Edition (adorned with a picture of McFadden with his "D-Dawg, Bustin' Loose" tattoo") and actually find some interesting draft content. First off, a poll of ESPN-surfers was conducted to see how popular perception stacked up with McShay and Kiper. McShay thinks Denver grabs OT Jeff Otah; Kiper argues for OLB Keith Rivers (a likely pick given his overall value, in my opinion). About 50% of those polled felt Denver would draft an OT; 30% voted for Williams while 19% voted for Clady. Surprisingly, a whopping 40% thought Denver would draft WR Limas Sweed.

If you follow the logic that Denver should take the best athlete available--regardless of their position--guys like Sweed, Rivers, or even Mike Jenkins make a lot more sense than reaching for a tackle. Realizing this is a non-scientific poll of anonymous web users, I was nonetheless shocked to see such a strong consensus--particularly given all the OT hype out there.

Another interesting article released a recalibrated draft pick value chart based on the work of economists Richard Thaler and Cade Massey, who wrote an NBER working paper entitled, "Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL." The revised pick values are a dramatic shift from the mainstream tables wherein a team has to trade the farm to move from #12 to #1. How much different are they? Let's put it this way: to move from #12 to #1, Denver would have to part with a late 5th rounder.

Sound absurd? Well, when you consider the sizable contract you have to pay out to these top picks coupled with the enormous risk the selector undertakes, it's perhaps more of a curse than an advantage to pick first. It simply doesn't add up. This probably explains why there are so many more teams trying to move down than move up.

I'd love to give you a copy of the new draft values, but seeing that several sites claiming to host them already have them down, I think I'll pass. I'd rather not get sued. But if you have insider access or get ESPN The Mag, be sure to look for it.