Final Draft Thoughts

As the 2008 NFL draft rapidly approaches, here are some final thoughts.

First, I want to talk about needs. Here is my list of draft needs by position, in order of priority:

1. Defensive Tackle: This morning I was surprised to see that Todd McShay had removed defensive tackle from his list of "needs" in this year's draft. Certainly adding D-Rob helps, but I still don't see a good argument for a bigger need than defensive tackle. For one, there isn't a true 2-gap defender on our thin roster. We have zero injury insurance at the position and certainly won't have any kind of a rotation with the roster as is. Finally, there is no guarantee that Thomas will (a) stay out of jail and (b) play anywhere near his potential in 2008. Take his name out of the hat, and Denver is in terrible shape at a critical position.
   
   
2. Offensive Line: Pick a position. Holland is probably the surest thing on our lines to produce for 3-5 years. Hamilton is likely to retire after this year as is future Hall of Fame center Tom Nalen. Chris Kuper is an outstanding talent but ultimately may be a best fit at guard. Harris, last year's 68th overall pick, could very well be the future of our franchise at left or right tackle. Fortunately, first-day options along the offensive line are plentiful. Ultimately, a guy who can play all along the line like Williams, Albert, or Cherilus may be the best fit. Although there are some intriguing left tackle prospects to be had early on draft day. Ryan Clady, who looks like a distinctive fit for the zone-blocking scheme, is chief among them.
   
   
3. Halfback: Gone are the days of roll outs and bootlegs to get Plummer out in space where he works best. For all of Plummer's shortcomings, his playing style sure had a knack for keeping blitzers off balance. With Cutler in town, we are going to have to get serious about pass protection in the pocket. A running back capable of sustaining a block in the passing game is a critical. Last year, Denver allowed 8.5 sacks to blitzing safeties and linebackers. What's more, Denver's power run success percentage was the worst its been in years under Shanahan. This was undoubtedly a culprit behind our paltry touchdown percentage in the red zone. A powerful back with 300-carry potential and pass blocking skills would solve a lot of problems. Unfortunately, there aren't that many 215-pound plus running backs with the elusiveness, vision, speed, and pass blocking skills to reconcile all these issues. To solidly address these needs, Denver will seriously consider grabbing Rashard Mendenhall in the first round.
   
   
4. Safety: Denver has retained Abdullah and Lynch for one more year. Last season, one injury forced Denver to move Dominique Foxworth out of position to play some safety. Nick Ferguson left Denver while two fresh faces, Manuel and McCree, were signed and will compete for a roster slot. We have adequate depth at the position to survive in 2008 without adding a rookie; however, this unit is incredibly average if not downright terrible. When Abdullah and Lynch leave town next season, someone will have to be signed. Ideally, Denver will take a safety sometime this weekend. Being that the class is not very deep, it may be hard to find a good value. Don't be surprised if a defensive back isn't added until day 2.
   
   
5. Middle Linebacker: What Niko Koutouvides buys us is time at the position. My suspicion is that Koutouvides is a stopgap option who could potentially provide great depth and be a special teams standout for years to come. While the MLB class is not deep, there are some intriguing prospects available on the first day. Among the, Curtis Lofton is my favorite. I'd also be happy with Jerod Mayo (who arguably is more of a WLB type) if he slipped to us at #42. Beau Bell is a good value in round 4. Vanderbilt's Jonathan Goff is an absolute steal in round 6. I expect Denver will take one of these four players at some point in the draft.
   
   
6. Kick Return Specialist: Since Reuben Droughns won the starting job in 2004, Denver hasn't had a respectable return game. Attempts at a quality return man have been fruitless. It is believed Denver will target a RB, CB, or WR with return skills at some point this weekend to improve our lousy 2007 field position. Even though its not among our most critical needs, don't be surprised to see a high pick spent on a wide receiver or cornerback who can excel in this role. Brandon Flowers and Chris Johnson are two candidates for this role who've been mentioned liberally in the media.
   
   
7. Wide Receiver: Denver added a trio of wide receivers in free agency. One of them, Samie Parker, is considered a long shot to make the roster. Another, Keary Colbert, has been the apple of Shanahan's eye since being drafted in 2004. Drawing comparisons to Eddie McCaffrey, Colbert seems the heir apparent at split end heading into 2008. Darrell Jackson, a formidable red zone weapon who's scored 50 touchdowns in 8 seasons, is only with Denver for a year and has had a lot of problems staying on the field since 2004. Brandon Stokley's is also close to the end of his career and will likely retire in the next two seasons. I expect Denver to draft a project player at Wide Receiver anywhere from round 2 to round 7.
   
   
8. Defensive End: Ekuban will probably leave the team next year. Engelberger should give us at least another 3 years and is great blue-collar depth. Dumervil is a pure pass rush specialist who will work some from defensive tackle on passing downs. That leaves the unproven Crowder and Moss. Both have shown a lot of promise but should they fail to reach their potential Denver may find themselves shorthanded in 2009. I don't consider this to be a critical need but wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive end with run-stopping ability come off the board for a good value. Some have even speculated the Denver will take Moss's teammate Derrick Harvey at #12. I think Harvey is quietly among the most coveted players in the draft and expect Buffalo to take him at #11. If he drops to Denver, it will be interesting to see if they pass on him.
   
   
9. Cornerback: Shanahan requires his corners to play an extremely physical style of football. For this reason, cornerbacks in Denver tend to spend the regular season pretty banged up. Bly and Bailey have both played through injuries the last several seasons. What's more, Foxworth will test the free agent market next season. After Foxworth leaves town, Denver will be talented but not deep at an important position. This year's cornerback class is so deep that great talents like Antoine Caison can be had as late as round 4. There is also a possibility that McKelvin drops to Denver at #12. If the right player is available at the right pick, I don't think Denver will hesitate to add some depth to the secondary.

Based on these needs, here's how I see the first couple of rounds shaking out:

12th Overall Pick: Most interesting to me is what happens with New Orleans in round 1. If they move up to grab Dorsey, I think there is a window of opportunity for Denver to land Sedrick Ellis in the first round. Assuming that they stay put, here are my expectations:

• Mendenhall or Clady? Both are franchise-player quality talents at positions which are distinctive needs. Clady may not be available. If he's not, my best guess is that Denver grabs Mendenhall.
  
  
• Wildcards: Don't be surprised to see an unexpected pick here. I've already argued that Denver may have a hard time passing on McKelvin. Keith Rivers could also be picked here in a move that would most certainly result in a D.J. Williams trade at some point this year or next. Derrick Harvey is another player Denver is undoubtedly intrigued by and would be a palatable choice.
  
  
• Dumbest Possible Move: Reaching for Chris Williams, Kentwan Balmer, Jerod Mayo, or Kenny Phillips. None of these guys are 12th-pick value. Denver could move down ten picks or more and still rest assured one of these guys are available. In other words, if you must take a DT or OT, move down.



• 42nd Overall Pick: Here are my thoughts on this pick:
  
  • Most Likely Scenario: Kenny Phillips or DeJuan Morgan. If Denver is going to address their needs at the safety position, it will have to happen early as the class is miserably thin (Reggie Nelson, anyone?).
    
    
  • I'd like to see... If I had my choice, Denver would walk away from this pick with either Curtis Lofton or Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus would immediately add depth at guard and has the run blocking ability to blossom into a fantastic right tackle. Of all the offensive lineman in the draft short of Ryan Clady, Cherilus seems to be the best fit for our team. That said, Cherilus is likely not available at this pick. If we must grab an offensive lineman, the surly Zuttah would be my next choice.
    
    
  • Dumbest Pick Possible: A reach at defensive tackle would be a disaster here. All the true 2-gap options available figure as late 3rd-rounders to early 5th-rounders. Dre Moore, Patrick Sims, and DeMario Pressley are 3-technique guys who aren't going to take pressure off the LB/S positions in the running game. If Denver can't get Ellis, they need to wait patiently until round 4.
  
  
  
• A Pair of Fourth Rounders: Here's my thoughts:
  
  • Most Likely Scenario: I would be astonished if Denver didn't take at least one defensive tackle with this pick given the crop of talents available in this round. My stone-cold lock pick for this year's draft is Letroy Guion in round 4. If not a pair of defensive tackles, Denver could also use this pick to take a safety, wide reciever (Dexter Jackson?), cornerback (Antoine Caison?), or runningback (Michael Forte/Cory Boyd?)--preferably with return skills. Beau Bell is also a dark horse candidate to get picked here at MLB.
    
    
  • I'd like to see... I would be elated to see Denver grab Athyba Rubin at the top of round 4. Most draft boards figure him to be a late 3rd rounder, so this probably doesn't happen. After that, I'd grab Letroy Guion based purely on upside and versatility. Red Bryant is another guy I like but he's a pure 2-gap defender like Rubin. Any combination of the three would ultimately make me very happy.
  
  

That's all I have for now! I'll discuss day 2 strategies after day 1 is finished! I'll be posting throughout the draft today and will give you a postmortem this evening. Enjoy the draft!