Is any RB worthy of a first round pick?

According to a recent article at the NFL Stats blog, they're worth their weight in gold. According to the article, a running back's career yards per carry and likelihood of attending a pro bowl are both strongly correlated with their draft order. Many have argued that Shanahan's selection of undrafted and late-round running backs are evidence that he has a penchant for finding late round steals. The author of this article notes an interesting point:

"For any one RB's season, offensive line ability has a tremendous influence on his stats. But over 490 careers and over 24 years of data, the abilities of offensive lines will average itself out to a great degree, leaving career YPC a reliable estimate of true RB performance when grouped by round or draft order."

Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?

In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.

Denver a Miserable Sports City?

According to Forbes Magazine, the answer is "yes." In a list of the top 10 most 'miserable sports cities,' Denver was ranked 7th. Contributing to this dubious distinction was our anemic post-season record and lack of championships. Losing the Rockies (NHL) was another blemish.

The Broncos--AFC Champs in 1 out of 6 seasons since 1977--are certainly a huge bright spot here, although they don't seem to get much credit in Forbes rating system.

Denver's Crowded Depth Chart

ESPN's John Clayton recently derided NFL owners for failing to increase the roster limit from 80 to 86 players. In it, he notes than Denver currently has 88 players on their roster, including our 9 draft picks later this month. The implication is simple: some pinks slips are going to get handed out before camp.

Mile High Report contributor MattR recently provided a great breakdown of our current roster. In it, he categorizes players as 'locks', 'probable', or 'on the bubble.' There are some interesting names on the list. In particular, if Denver adds some fresh faces at safety, cornerback, wide receiver, running back, or defensive end, there could be some surprise cuts when the rosters are trimmed in August.

Keeping Things in Perspective

A laymen fan writing in his diary at Mile High Report offers an insightful statistic on Denver's dominance as a franchise. Since 1978, only five teams have averaged more than 9 wins per season. Here they are:

1. Denver Broncos: 9.71
   
   
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.43
   
   
3. San Francisco 49ers: 9.21
   
   
4. Miami Dolphins: 9.14
   
   
5. Dallas Cowboys: 9.00

Sheesh! No wonder Broncos fans become so enraged at a 7-win season. Just for kicks, I thought I'd spot check a couple of other teams:

Arizona Cardinals: 5.3

Detroit Lions: 6.4


How about the "class of the AFC?"

San Diego Chargers: 7.8


Have we been spoiled by our success?

A Look at Denver's Red Zone Efficency

All right Shana-haters, lets talk red zone efficiency. Lately, pundits of the Shanahan regime have argued that his red zone offense is no longer elite, and therefore the game has 'passed him by'. I decided to investigate this oft-cited anti-Shanahan reasoning to put the debate to rest.

Much to the chagrin of the Shana-haters, Denver's red zone offense has been something between average and dominant the last five years--just like our winning percentage. Here are the numbers:

Denver Broncos Red Zone Efficiency (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	Scoring %	Rank	TD %	Rank
2007	51	0.863	16	0.49	21
2006	44	0.977	1	0.545	12
2005	58	0.862	13	0.603	7
2004	53	0.792	28	0.453	27
2003	56	0.875	11	0.554	8
	262	0.8738	13.8	0.529	15

Aggregate Red Zone Efficiency-All Teams (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	TD	FG	Scor %	TD %
2007	1548	809	527	.863	.523
2006	1521	773	501	.837	.508
2005	1551	792	528	.851	.511
2004	1557	839	454	.830	.539
2003	1522	781	496	.839	.513
	7699	3994	2506	.844	.519

As you can see, claims that Denver's red zone offense is ineffective are factually incorrect. Rather, we've consistently ranked in the top half of the league in both touchdown percentage and scoring percentage in the red zone. The extreme exception to this trend is 2004; a season in which Plummer broke Elway's franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Ironically, this is also the season that Broncos fans cling to when berating Shanahan for putting the handcuffs on Jake the Snake.

Consistent with our 7-9 record last season, our red zone efficiency was slightly below average. Scoring percentage was par for the course while touchdown percentage--as many, many people have noted of late--was ranked a paltry 21st in the league. While 2007 was undoubtedly a statistical slide from previous Broncos seasons, the offense didn't perform that badly when injuries to Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, Henry, Walker, Stokely, and Scheffler (did I miss any non-first-year starter other than Graham and Marshall??) are taken into account.

Finally, the controversial 2006 season in which Plummer was unceremoniously dumped as starting QB was an exemplary year for Denver's offense despite our failure to reach the playoffs. Contrary to popular belief, it was our defense that cost us a championship run rather than the offense under Jay Cutler.

Unfortunately, the Shanahan lynch mob seems to have a short term memory. Shanahan's offensive track record since Elway retired is elite compared to the rest of the league. The Broncos fan base has enjoyed over a decade of competitive excellence in the NFL. The downside to this excess is that 7-10 win seasons have grown stale; Broncos fans are yearning for their team to recapture the Super Bowl years. Let them run Shanahan out of town and feel the sting of a 1-15 season and they'll beat a different drum. With many things in life, we don't value what we have until we've lost it. This is one lesson I'd rather not learn the hard way.

NOTE: My rudimentary HTML skills have me baffled at how to remove the annoying space between the table headers and the tables. Next time I'll just embed a screen shot! If you want a copy of the data you can find it here. All red zone statistics were gathered from Pro Football Weekly.