The TSN final mock draft bucked the trend of analysts who've predicted that Denver will take whichever tackle prospect falls in their lap at #12. Echoing recent sentiment from this blogger, they predict Denver will grab RB Rashard Mendenhall with the 12th overall pick. The player Denver takes next month will probably be some intersection of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent. Taking all of these into consideration, these are the players, in order of probability, that I see Denver drafting at #12:
Rashard Mendenhall
Ryan Clady
Jonathan Stewart
Keith Rivers
Derrick Harvey
Chris Williams
Mendenhall is the surest combination of need, goodness of fit, and overall talent available by a long shot. Clady also fits all three, but in an incredibly deep draft class combined with Clady's strange personality and worrisome Wonderlic score lead me to believe that Denver would rather address this need in round 2 and beyond. Realistically, Clady and Rivers are likely long gone by the time Denver picks at #12. Assuming this is the case, I think Shanahan's ultimate decision will be between grabbing Mendenhall at #12 or trading down a couple of picks to take whichever back drops. Given the compensation, the latter strategy may ultimately be the most prudent course.
Showing posts with label Halfback. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Halfback. Show all posts
Monday, April 21, 2008
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Is any RB worthy of a first round pick?
According to a recent article at the NFL Stats blog, they're worth their weight in gold. According to the article, a running back's career yards per carry and likelihood of attending a pro bowl are both strongly correlated with their draft order. Many have argued that Shanahan's selection of undrafted and late-round running backs are evidence that he has a penchant for finding late round steals. The author of this article notes an interesting point:
Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?
In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.
"For any one RB's season, offensive line ability has a tremendous influence on his stats. But over 490 careers and over 24 years of data, the abilities of offensive lines will average itself out to a great degree, leaving career YPC a reliable estimate of true RB performance when grouped by round or draft order."
Using the same logic, you could inductively argue that a running back YPC can be bolstered by a great offensive line. Anecdotally, there's really only two "great" running backs that have come out of Shanahan's drafts in recent years--Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. All other backs failed to produce similar numbers behind different offensive lines. Is it possible that Davis and Portis were merely the offspring of serendipity?
In the event that we pass on the top runners available in this year's draft, I hope not, for Shanahan's sake. After amassing a paltry 428 carries last season, perhaps it's time to make a high-percentage investment in a workhorse back.
'Best-Value' Draft Picks: Workhorse Back Edition
This is the latest addition to my 'best-value' series which began with this article on the 2008 defensive tackle class. Recall, when we talk about 'best-value,' we are referring to a players quality and price. Thus, Jonathan Stewart might be the highest quality running back on your board, but as an early 1st-round pick, his price is also among the highest in the draft.
In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:
Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:
This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:
Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.
Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:
Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.
It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.
So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.
Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:
#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.
#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.
#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.
#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.
#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:
An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.
Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.
Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.
In a recent article on Selvin Young, we discovered the following:
- 23% of Denver's running plays were for 10+ yards (a large amount).
- Denver was ranked 32nd in the NFL in Power Success Percentage, the percentage of 2nd/3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 plays that resulted in first downs or touchdowns.
- Denver was 20th in the league in Stuffed Percentage, the percentage of running plays which resulted in zero yardage or negative yards.
- Selvin Young ranked 40th and Travis Henry ranked 27th in Success Percentage, a statistic which tabulates "success" or "fail" for each run dependent on the down and distance.
Overall, these numbers infer that in 2007 Denver mixed long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. What's more, I argued that Denver was horribly deficient in blitz protection and pass protection from the running back position. This conclusion is, in part, based on the 8.5 sacks tabulated in this article. Based on this information, we can conclude the following about Denver's running attack:
- The loss of Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, and Henry (for most of the year) dealt a painful blow to our rushing attack in 2007. Denver will likely benefit from the return of at least half this cast (assuming a minimum of either Hamilton or Henry make it back).
- Denver needs to inject some youth into the offensive line in this year's draft. Right tackle and guard are the principle areas of need.
- Denver could use a third down back with better pass-blocking and route-running ability than Selvin Young, although, Selvin was serviceable in the role given his 10+ yard run tally.
- Denver needs a workhorse back to fix its power running game. With Lepsis, Henry, Hamilton, and Nalen healthy after 4 weeks, Henry had zero touchdowns to show for his league-leading yardage. Denver's red zone touchdown percentage was among the worst its had in years, and the running game is a huge reason for this; more on this in a second.
This article will focus on the last item in the list: finding a workhorse back. What do I mean by a workhorse back? To tell the story, let's start with this table:
Three of these seasons--2002, 2003, and 2007--Denver has run the ball less than they've passed. Each of these seasons happens to be a statistical low in the percentage of plays which resulted in a first down and overall record. With respect to red zone touchdown percentage, 2004 seems to be a huge statistical anomaly, but I'm guessing Plummer's 21 turnovers were a contributing factor.
Now, let me draw your attention to this stat: to run the ball over 50% of the time, Denver is going to have to amass 500+ carries. Having a run defense is a big piece to accomplishing this goal. Equally as important is having a guy who can carry the rock 300+ times a season. Having one who can move a pile wouldn't hurt either. What kind of running back can stand up to this kind of workload? Well, since 2004, these are the guys who've done it in the NFL:
| PLAYER: | WEIGHT: |
| Cad. Williams | 217 |
| Chester Taylor | 213 |
| Clinton Portis | 223 |
| Corey Dillon | 225 |
| Curtis Martin | 210 |
| Domanick Davis | 221 |
| Edgerrin James | 220 |
| Frank Gore | 223 |
| Jamal Lewis | 245 |
| L. Tomlinson | 221 |
| Larry Johnson | 230 |
| LenDale White | 235 |
| Reuben Droughns | 220 |
| Rudi Johnson | 214 |
| Shaun Alexander | 228 |
| Steven Jackson | 232 |
| Thomas Jones | 215 |
| Tiki Barber | 205 |
| Willie Parker | 209 |
| Willis McGahee | 232 |
Over the three year period, there were 40 running backs who hit the 300-carry mark. If you consider injuries, there are 5 or more guys each year who were on a pace to achieve this mark. Last season, for instance, players like Ryan Grant (218 lbs), Brandon Jacobs (1572 lbs), Earnest Graham (225 lbs), Justin Fargas (220 lbs), Sammy Morris (220 lbs), Marshawn Lynch (215 lbs), Stephen Jackson, and Larry Johnson were all on pace to tally 300+ carries but failed to do so because they were injured or earned their jobs later in the year.
It's clear from this list that a 195-pound running back has virtually no chance of being a 300-carry back in the NFL. The average and median weight of this list is 221 pounds. Notice, Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, and Willie Parker are the only backs who are 210 pounds or less. Taking Barber and Martin's best five-year production, both average 8 touchdowns per season. Willie Parker has averaged 6 touchdowns in 3 seasons as a starter, more than 75% of which came in a single 14-touchdown year. Brian Westbrook is the most liberally mentioned 'exception that disproves the rule.' In Westbrook's entire career, he's failed to amass more than 7 rushing touchdowns. He might be a great offensive weapon, but he's not going to bolster your red zone touchdown percentage.
So, what's the definition of a workhorse back? I hate to burst the bubble of all the Mike Hart, Felix Jones, and Chris Johnson fans out there, but a guy who's 195 to 205 pounds ain't it. To amass 300 carries, you really need to weigh about 215. Given these facts, my analysis is strongly biased in favor of backs who are greater than 5'10" and/or 210 pounds. Some of you will undoubtedly quarrel with this, but considering the paucity of sub-210 backs and the fact that only Frank Gore and Dominack Davis (the latter is out of the league due to injuries) are less than 5'10", these are fair assumptions in my opinion. Mind you, guys like Chris Johnson and Felix Jones could blossom in 200-carry backs and elite change-of-pace options in the NFL, but such considerations are outside the scope of this analysis.
Without further adieu, here's the list of my best-value picks:
#1: Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: In today's era of unproven 1st-round draft picks earning pro-bowl money, it's hard to argue that any top pick is worthy of 'best-value' consideration. Even for #12 money, Mendenhall has got to make a value-addict like Shanahan salivate. Mendenhall has it all. He's got the rare combination of game-breaking speed and pile-driving power. He shows great vision, determination, and patience. He's an above-average pass protector with the toughness and size to anchor against the blitz. What's more, Mendenhall played in an offensive remarkably similar to Denver's in college. As a pure, one-cut back, Mendenhall is seemingly tailor made for Denver's offense and looks capable of immediately stepping in and making a huge impact in 2008.
#2: Cory Boyd, South Carolina: Boyd has overcome an astonishing amount of personal adversity to position himself as a 5th-round pick in this year's NFL draft. If you are interested in learning more, I strongly encourage you to read this article. Boyd was suspended for a year for violating team policy in 2005. Because of this, character and maturity are big concerns for NFL scouts; however, Boyd has no history of arrests or off-the-field problems. From a physical standpoint, Boyd is a complete package. He's got great acceleration and speed. He's got great size with the ability to add another 5 to 10 pounds. He's a fantastic pass blocker. Boyd plays with passion and vigor. He's a punishing runner who shows both elusiveness in space as well as the ability to break tackles. Boyd runs right through arm tackles and will likely mow over most of the DB's in the NFL. I once saw Boyd hit a Virginia defender so hard he gave him a seizure.
#3: Matt Forte, Tulane: A north-south runner, Matt Forte is not a very elusive player. There's also some concern about the level of competition he faced at Tulane. Other than these concerns, there's not much to dislike about Forte. He's a powerful runner with the ability to move the pile. He never stops moving his legs. Forte is an ideal fit in a system like Denver's that relies on a lot of two-tight-end, one-back sets. For 4th-round money, Forte is a great value.
#4: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: This ranking will undoubtedly draw the ire of many Broncos fans. In fairness, Stewart would probably be near or at the top of a list of top change-of-pace backs available in this year's draft. Thus, I think the argument can be made for Stewart at #12 next month. The big question mark surrounding Stewart is whether or not he figures as a workhorse back in the NFL. At 235 pounds there's no question that Stewart has the size; however, Stewart was frequently bogged down with nagging injuries during his career at Oregon. To his credit, he showed a tendency to play through most of these injuries. Stewart is not the solution for our power-running game either. He tends to avoid contact and hasn't shown the ability to move a pile. He's also a poor pass protector. Despite Stewart's mismatches with Denver's primary needs, his speed, elusiveness, and game-breaking ability are unsurpassed in this year's draft. Stewart is a special talent deserving of consideration on this list, even though I've serious doubts about his ability to ever be a true 'workhorse' in the NFL.
#5: Alley Broussard, Louisiana State: Broussard had one of the most dominant performances in LSU Tigers history in 2004. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in 2005 and missed the entire season. Returning from the injury in 2006, Broussard found himself buried on the LSU depth chart. After a year on the sidelines, he transferred to Missouri Southern State where he finished with 862 yards and 12 touchdowns. Broussard is a massive, punishing runner. He runs low to the ground and gets his shoulders underneath would-be tacklers. He doesn't have elite top-end speed but plays the game with quickness. Broussard is also a fantastic pass blocker. It's difficult to articulate Broussard's potential. Here's a video of his 2004 season at LSU:
An ACL injury is a two-year recovery plan. There is some question as to whether Broussard will ever return to pre-injury form; however, he'll get 7th round consideration or perhaps even go undrafted. For that kind of money, the risk is next to nothing, making him a great value.
Honorable Mention: Xavier Omon, Northwest Missouri State: The biggest knock against Omon is that he's a career D-II athlete. He is, however, the only player in D-II history to rush for 1,500 yards in four consecutive seasons. Omon has the size to be an every-down back in the NFL (5'10" 225lbs). He's also loaded with intangibles. Omon shows great patience and awareness. He's elusive in the open field and doesn't shy away from contact. Omon has great hands and is a capable route runner. He doesn't shy away from contact but the film I saw didn't show him taking any big-time hits. He's only an average pass blocker at a substandard level of competition. I immediately fell in love with Omon when I began this research but quickly lost interest the more I saw him on film. Omon has a good burst but his top-end speed is simply unacceptable. He utilizes running angles to avoid would-be tacklers astutely, but his consistent inability to outrun defenders leads me to believe that he'll be overwhelmed at the next level. Nevertheless, as a 7th round or undrafted talent, Omon is an intriguing talent who requires very little investment.
Shanahan has never drafted a running back in the first round. Mendenhall, however, is so rare a talent who is such a fantastic fit for Denver's rushing scheme that I place an extremely high probability on his selection at #12 overall next Saturday. For a team that struggled mightily in the red zone and in short-yardage situations last season, the players above all have the potential to have a huge impact on Denver's offensive production in 2008 and moving forward.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Signalizing Selvin Young's Success
Mile High Report has a fantastic breakdown of rushing metrics for Broncos RB Selvin Young. In it, author super7 argues that Selvin Young boasted the leagues 4th best yards per touch (YPT) in the NFL last season. Both his logic and his methodology are agreeable; I think this is a meaningful statistic. I am, however, going to play devil's advocate in this article, arguing instead that Selvin Young is not only unfit to be an every-down starter, but also that he isn't a long-term solution as a third-down back.
What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.
A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.
Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.
Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:
Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.
As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.
If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.
Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.
What do we mean by every-down starter? A rule-of-thumb definition is a running back who averages over 18 touches (carries and receptions) per game. On a games-played basis, there were over 20 guys who fit this mold last season (e.g. Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant would fit this definition based on games they actually played in rather than games they were dressed for). Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Faulk, Selvin Young, Kenny Watson, and Marion Barber are not among them. Why does this matter? Well for one, you have a lot more room to run on 3rd and 20 than you do on 2nd and 4. Also, screens, draws, hitches, and slants will result, on average, in more yardage as defenses in these situations tend to concede space underneath to devote maximum resources to defending the first-down yardage.
A third-down backs yards per carry (YPC) is not meaningful for predicting how they will perform as an every-down back. Last season Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai both made this switch. Addai's YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 while Benson's YPC dropped from 4.1 to 3.4. Why does this happen? Answer: hard carries. Some of the most important carries in the game (e.g. 4th and inches) are ones in which success is measured in inches or feet rather than yards. These plays destroy your YPC but are far more important than 7 yards gained on a 3rd and 15. Selvin Young lacks the prototypical size to take these "hard carries;" 210lbs is undersized for a 5'10" running back like Addai or Westbrook (who both lack prototypical size), much less a 6'0" running back.
Next I'd like to draw your attention to this page published by FootballOutsiders.com. These are offensive line run blocking statistics for every NFL team in 2007. In Denver's case, these numbers are telling. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
- Power Success: This statistic is the percentage of 3rd/4th-and-less-than-2 runs which resulted in a first down or touchdown. Ranked 32nd, Denver was the absolute worst team in the league in this category. In short, our power running game is nonexistent. Historically speaking, Denver's power success percentage has been dominant--typically in the 60's.
- Stuffed: This is the percentage of run plays which resulted in zero gain or a loss of yards. Denver was average in this category and ranked an unimpressive 20th in the league. Again, this is indicative of our lousy power running game. In the 2000's, Denver ranked no less than 5th in this category until last year, when we dropped to 15th. We haven't recovered.
- 10+ Yard Plays: This is the number of plays that go for 10+ yards. Last season, 23% of Denver's rushing plays were of this variety. This is really the statistic that tells the story of Selvin Young. In 15 games last season, he had 8 runs for 10+ yards (7 of them for 20+) and 6 receptions for 10+ yards. These 14 plays accounted for exactly 1/3rd of Selvin Young's total scrimmage yards last season.
Based on these numbers, it is clear that Selvin Young was integral to the success of Denver's running game last season. Football Outsiders adjusts for both opponent defensive strength and the factors outline above to give each offensive line an adjusted yards per carry. Controlling for these factors, our line drops from 9th to 13th in the league.
Another FootballOutsiders.com stat sheet gives us more insight. This sheet gives us statistics by running back for 2007. Here's a breakdown with analysis:
- Defensive Value-Over-Average (DVOA): Adjusting for opponent run defense, this metric measures how much better this running back performed than average. Because a player can be worse than average, this value can be negative. In this category, Selvin Young is ranked 24th and is 11.2% better than average. Not surprising (likely for reasons discussed earlier), a host of other third down backs like Kenny Watson, Marion Barber, and Laurence Maroney litter the top of this list.
- Success Rate: For every run, a player either succeeds or he doesn't. The definition of success is different for each down and distance. Selvin Young is a paltry 40th ranked in this category with 43% success. Travis Henry is ranked 27th.
Here's a telling quote from FootballOutsiders:
"A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage."
Sound familiar? Based on these numbers, Selvin Young has a ton of work to do before he's fit to be an every-down back in the NFL. Couple this with his atypical size and the probability that Young fills a featured-back role seems minuscule.
As a third-down back, there's no question that Young excelled as a runner; however, one could argue that he costs us just as much as he brings to the table. In pass protection, Young is nothing short of atrocious. I looked exhaustively for some descriptive statistics that would add some ethos to this claim, but was unable to find anything notable. Anecdotally, I think that many Broncos fans will recall mind-boggling situations where a linebacker or safety blitzed the gap on Young's side, and he made no effort to stop their advancement. It's fair to argue that this deficiency could be coaching or even poor communication by Jay Cutler, but unless Young can fix this, he's going to be a liability on the field when not the ball carrier.
If you want to see what great running back pass protection looks like, watch some tape on Edgerrin James. He's the best I've ever seen; he's arguably the best of all time. Indianapolis places a very high emphasis on their running backs ability to pass protect. Joseph Addai allowed 0.5 sacks last season. Through some combination of coaching and Bill Polian's brilliant drafting, they manage to get great talents in this area.
Given all that we've seen, it should be a little more clear to Broncos fans why I think Rashard Mendenhall is a strong possibility at #12. The talent drop off at the position the last three seasons has been precipitous. Travis Henry is not the solution. I don't think there is a solution on our roster, certainly not Selvin Young.
Friday, April 4, 2008
The State of the Backfield
Jeff Legwold had an interesting write up on the possibility of Denver adding a running back via the draft.
Currently, the running back position is comprised of Travis Henry, Selvin Young, and Andre Hall. Henry--by far the oldest of the three--is the incumbent starter. As Legwold points out, barring a miraculous training camp, Henry's days as an every-down starter are probably over.
Second on the depth chart is Selvin Young. In fifteen games last season (only five starts), Young had a 20+ yard run or catch in eight of them. Receiving only 175 total touches, Young finished the year with close to 1000 total yards. Should Henry fall to injury or to old age, Young appears capable of carrying the rock.
Undrafted Andre Hall had a promising start to his career last season as well. In 5 games, Hall scored 2 touchdowns. In his lone start against Chicago, he totaled over 150 total yards and a touchdown.
In short, we are not wanting for depth at the running back position. Shanahan is undoubtedly scanning this year's draft class for a value pick; however, I think there is little reason to suspect that pick would come on the first day. I would be "okay" with Denver spending a pick on either Travis Mendenhall or East Carolina's Chris Johnson, but don't feel this is a critical need in this year's draft. Running backs have short careers and are more commodity-like than their popular perception indicates (see Clinton Portis). Players like Tomlinson or Dickerson are extremely rare exceptions; history tells us you don't need one of these guys to win a championship.
Far more important is the effectiveness of the offensive line. Adding a tackle via the draft wouldn't be imprudent; however, I think we are stronger at the position than the popular media seems to think. Drafting a pair of guards to replace the aging Montrae Holland and Ben Hamilton are a higher priority, in my opinion.
Currently, the running back position is comprised of Travis Henry, Selvin Young, and Andre Hall. Henry--by far the oldest of the three--is the incumbent starter. As Legwold points out, barring a miraculous training camp, Henry's days as an every-down starter are probably over.
Second on the depth chart is Selvin Young. In fifteen games last season (only five starts), Young had a 20+ yard run or catch in eight of them. Receiving only 175 total touches, Young finished the year with close to 1000 total yards. Should Henry fall to injury or to old age, Young appears capable of carrying the rock.
Undrafted Andre Hall had a promising start to his career last season as well. In 5 games, Hall scored 2 touchdowns. In his lone start against Chicago, he totaled over 150 total yards and a touchdown.
In short, we are not wanting for depth at the running back position. Shanahan is undoubtedly scanning this year's draft class for a value pick; however, I think there is little reason to suspect that pick would come on the first day. I would be "okay" with Denver spending a pick on either Travis Mendenhall or East Carolina's Chris Johnson, but don't feel this is a critical need in this year's draft. Running backs have short careers and are more commodity-like than their popular perception indicates (see Clinton Portis). Players like Tomlinson or Dickerson are extremely rare exceptions; history tells us you don't need one of these guys to win a championship.
Far more important is the effectiveness of the offensive line. Adding a tackle via the draft wouldn't be imprudent; however, I think we are stronger at the position than the popular media seems to think. Drafting a pair of guards to replace the aging Montrae Holland and Ben Hamilton are a higher priority, in my opinion.
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