D-Rob a Panacea for the D-Line?

Seemingly so, if you read this morning's Denver Post:

"The question is not whether they can get a quality tackle, the question is whether they get one they feel is worthy of the No. 12 selection and pay scale," said Jeffrey Foster, president of NFL Scouting Inc., which serves 20 teams, including the Broncos. "There will be a tackle there that they like, but is he worth 12th-pick money? Those are questions that head coaches and salary cap guys and personnel guys start debating."

What the Broncos won't do is trade up for Sedrick Ellis or down for Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackles projected for the first round. The position is no longer a top priority after the Broncos acquired defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson from the New York Jets on Thursday in exchange for a 2009 conditional draft pick. "

A couple of thoughts:

• I absolutely agree with the first quote. I believe Denver likes several offensive line prospects available at #12 in this year's draft; however, I don't believe that Denver thinks they are all worth 12th pick money. In fact, Ryan Clady is the only guy I believe Denver is truly interested in drafting if they stay put in round 1. If some combination of Mendenhall, Rivers, McKelvin, Thomas, and Harvey are on the board when Denver picks, they will likely try and move down to take Williams, Otah, or Cherilius. If they don't receive a reasonable trade offer, don't be surprised to hear Mendenhall's, Rivers', or Harvey's name called at 12th overall. With the tackle class this deep, Denver isn't going to overpay for a player based on need.
  
  
• I disagree with the second part of this quote. Conservatively speaking, Denver views D-Rob as a stopgap at defensive tackle. Sure, he's a young guy with plenty of talent, but his knees are a ticking timebomb waiting to go off. What Robertson buys the Broncos is time. My guess is that Shanahan uses that time wisely. That is, he will add a lot of talent to the position this weekend. Only the rarest defensive tackle is capable of stepping in to a rotation and making an impact their first year. Thus, I don't buy that Denver isn't interested in trading up to acquire Sedrick Ellis. In fact, I think they'll have to deal with Cincinnati on the issue who may already be positioning themselves to negotiate a deal.

Broncos.com Confirms D-Rob Trade

Broncos.com has confirmed the Dwayne Robertson was acquired today for only a conditional 2009 draft pick. This is shocking news given that the asking price for Robertson was reportedly much higher. Should Robertson, who's seldom missed a start during his 4 year career, overcome concerns about the health of his knees, he'll be an absolute steal at this price. Reportedly, Denver surrenders the pick only if Robertson makes it through training camp healthy.

D-Rob a Bronco

ESPN reports that Jets DT Dwayne Robertson has been dealt to Denver for undisclosed draft picks. No details of the deal are available, however, Cincinnati reportedly withdrew an offer for a 4th and a 5th rounder, suggesting Denver's offer was less profitable for the Jets. Should Robertson stay healthy, he would provide much needed relief to Denver's depleted defensive line.

UPDATE: ESPN's Bill Williamson has carefully chosen the phrase "pick or picks" in highlighting Denver's cost in this deal. The possibility that we have spend a single first-day pick still remains. Adam Schefter is now reporting that Denver will send a conditional 2009 pick as compensation. I need more than one hand to count the number of times Adam Schefter has reported something that turned out to be purely fabricated. I'm still not convinced that Denver won't part with a 2008 pick between rounds 4 and 6.

Also, Jeff Legwold just published a short article on this developing situation. After reading it I have a couple of notable insights:

• Word of this deal was apparently leaked by Oakland who recently inquired about his availability. This could mean that Denver didn't want this information released publicly until the draft. So long as the draft-pick compensation is undisclosed, Denver still retains some strategic leverage over third parties whose tactical decisions on draft day would be affected by this deal. In other words, don't expect to hear the full details of this deal until next Sunday.
  
  
• Shanahan recently intimated that a deal for Robertson was unlikely because he considered his knees to be a "big risk." Lets get the obvious out of the way here: this could easily be construed as a smoke screen. Given all the interest Robertson has received, that would've been prudent. Not so obvious are the details of the new contract Denver has negotiated with Robertson in consideration of this deal. The Broncos certainly aren't going to pay the $18 million he's owed over the next two seasons. More likely, Robertson will receive some kind of incentive-laden deal predicated largely on the number of games he suits up for.
  
  
• Most telling in this situation is the level of effort displayed by Cincinnati. Depending on how you look at it, there are a couple of ways you can interpret these moves:
  
  
  1. One might conjecture that Cincinnati had no intention of drafting Sedrick Ellis at 9th overall and were looking for a stop gap option. I tend not to subscribe to this believe.
     
  2. I'd argue that Cincinnati has tipped their hand that defensive tackle is this most pressing need on Saturday. Burning question: did D-Rob's failed physical deal Denver out of any shot at Sedrick Ellis on Saturday? Time will tell.
     
  3. This could also possibly be an elaborate ploy by Cincinnati to increase their credibility in any potential trade agreement with Denver on draft day. Cincinnati is 2 picks removed from Denver in nearly ever round and also has glaring needs at DT, so this would make sense.

The more I read about this deal the more I like it. Assuming such an incentive-laden contract is in place, Denver has secured a decent chance of having a veteran defensive tackle to anchor the currently young, depleted line. Perhaps Robertson's knees keep him sidelined through much of the 2008 season and he retires; Denver would lose a pick and a paltry sum of cap room. Perhaps Robertson is effective and healthy in 2008 before succumbing to health problems; Denver would give their 2008 draft prospects a year to develop behind a veteran defender. Or perhaps Robertson stays healthy long term and anchors Denver's defensive line; what a steal that would be! The third scenario is not out of the question. After all, Robertson is only 27 years old. There's a lot of room for optimism in this move.

Saints' Movement could Improve Denver's Outlook

ESPN reports that New Orleans is aggressively seeking suitors to move up in this weekend's draft. According to the article, GM Mickey Loomis is evaluating the cost of moving into the top 5. This move is ostensibly an effort to draft Glenn Dorsey. Should this occur, Cincinnati would be the only obvious threat to drafting Sedrick Ellis at #12. Given that Cincinnati needs to upgrade at arguably every position on their team except for quarterback, it would not be unusual to see them pass on Ellis. Denver's situation at defensive tackle headed into 2008 is seemingly hopeless. Should he fall to us at #12, Ellis would be somewhat of a white knight in Denver.

UPDATE: Pro Football Weekly reports that the Rams are aggressively seeking suitors to trade out of the next pick in the NFL draft. Should New Orleans make a deal, Glenn Dorsey would almost certainly be their choice.

Robertson Reportedly Costs a 2nd Rounder

TSN's AFC West Draft Preview reports that Dwayne Robertson's price tag is the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick. Earlier this month, several news sources suggested that Robertson would cost two of Denver's 4th through 6th round picks. Since then, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have entered the market for Robertson, driving his price up. This is an astonishingly-high price to pay for a perennial underachiever with a bone-on-bone knee condition. If Robertson's reported cost is factually correct, I would be shocked (and enraged) if Denver made this deal.

The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.

Robertson Deal Appears Imminent

Scouts.com is reporting that the Broncos and Jets have nearly completed a deal that would send defensive tackle Dwayne Robertson to Denver. According to an anonymous source, Denver will reportedly give up two of its five draft picks between rounds 4 and 6 to complete the deal.

Two picks? This makes me cringe. There's no question Denver needs immediate help along the defensive line but I think there are better options available with those picks. Between Robertson's bad knees and his failure to develop into the kind of talent his 4th-overall draft selection portended, this seems like a hefty fee.

Let's hope both picks are from day 2 of the draft.

Redressing Denver's Defensive Line: Draft-Day DT's

For Denver, there is arguably no greater draft-day need than defensive tackle. After a disastrous reformulation of the defensive line in '07, Denver has neither the personnel nor the depth to field a respectable run defense in 2008. After failing to find a solution in free agency, the upcoming NFL draft is our last opportunity to find a cure. Recommendations among Broncos faithful range from trading up on draft day to switching to a 3-4.

The good news is that Denver is chock full of talent along the defensive front; the bad news is that there are glaring defects in the chemistry of this group. Namely, Denver's defensive line is horrid against the run. To solve this problem, Denver should look to draft a run specialist, capable of defending multiple gaps and taking on multiple blockers. To understand why this is the case, I encourage you to read my recent post, "Triaging Denver's Defensive Line."

In this article, I'm going to reveal my best-value picks at defensive tackle available in this year's draft. Before I begin, its important that I clarify what is meant by best-value picks. There are two components to value: cost and benefit. A player drafted in later rounds carries a lower opportunity cost than those drafted earlier; additionally, the later a player is drafted, the smaller their contract. Thus, while Glenn Dorsey is arguably the "best" player in this year's draft, Denver's cost to draft him would be several draft picks and a huge contract, so he wouldn't likely be a "best value." In fact, I'll end the suspense right now and tell you that Dorsey isn't on the list.

Without further adieu, here are my best-value picks at defensive tackle in the upcoming draft:

#1: Athyba ("ah-TAH-ba") Rubin, Iowa St.: A massive, powerful lineman, Athyba is the perfect fit for Denver's lackluster run defense. Athyba put up an incredible 35 reps at the combine (tied for first) and turned in a respectable 40 time of 5.22. He is an anchor at the point of attack, shows great awareness, has the ability to take on multiple blockers, sheds blocks well, and shows tremendous lateral agility. Athyba isn't a great pass rusher, but excels at collapsing the pocket to disrupt the passing game. Athyba shows none of the character or motivation flags that seem to plague the defensive tackle position. Athyba's combination of size, athleticism, and maturity enable him to make an immediate impact on Denver's anemic run defense. Draft-day analysts predict Rubin will go anywhere from the 3rd to the 5th round. Assuming he goes in round 3, Rubin's value is off the chart. Of all DT's in this year's draft, Rubin is the best candidate to shore up Denver's defensive woes in 2008 and for years to come.

#2: Red Bryant, Texas A&M: At 6'4" 320lbs, Red Bryant wouldn't be a bad consolation prize if we missed out on Athyba Rubin in the draft (imagine if we took both in the 4th round). After amassing 20 bench-press reps at the combine, Red's draft stock plummeted amidst concerns about his strength; however, with all the 'pluses' Bryant has in his favor, one has to caution against throwing out the baby with the bath water. Assuming for a moment that his bench reps are an accurate sample of his strength, Bryant certainly has the frame to pack on some muscle. To add to this, Bryant has the intangibles needed to excel at the next level. To put it simply, Bryant is a football guy. On the field he's passionate, vocal, and possesses as never-ending motor. Off the field, he's a leader. The undisputed team captain of the '07 Longhorns, Bryant has zero character flags and a blue-collar work ethic. He'll never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL (although he did run a 5.0 40-yard dash), but Bryant has all the tools necessary to evolve into an elite interior run stuffer. He injured his ACL in 2006 and thus carries some durability risk; however, given his 3rd-round price tag he's a great value.

#3: Nick Hayden, Wisconsin: There's nothing sexy about Hayden; however, he also has no glaring defects either (unlike a lot of higher-rated DT's) Hayden will never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL, but as a gap defender he's a steal in the sixth round. At the combine this year Hayden did 34 reps to match his solid 5.2 40-yard dash time. Weighing only 291 lbs, Hayden already possesses elite strength. His massive 6'3" frame has plenty of room to add extra bulk. Hayden is an extremely hard worker, has zero character flags, and has no history of injury. In 2008, he would provide great rotational depth. If history is any indication of Hayden's future, he could easily blossom into an enviable starter in a 2-gap scheme.

#4: Letroy Guion, Florida: Guion is a project pick with a ton of upside. The biggest knock on Guion is his experience: he's leaving Florida after only one full season as a starter. Guion's athletic gifts leave little to be desired. He has great lower- and upper-body strength, fast hands, and an explosive first step. Guion is capable of developing an elite pass rush to match his effectiveness as a run defender. He works hard in the weight room and comes with zero character flags. Because he lack's experience, Guion's technique is raw and inconsistent. When he has been technically sound, Guion has been brilliant. As a 4th or 5th round value, a project like Guion comes at a low cost. This is a likely pick given Shanahan's willingness to throw away a third-rounder to grab Guion's teammate Jarvis Moss in the 2007 NFL draft.

#5: Sedrick Ellis, Southern California: I thought of listing my best-value picks in reverse order, but finally decided that putting Sedrick Ellis at #5 was suspenseful enough. I can already hear the rage from Ellis-obsessed Broncos fans. It's not a gimmick, mind you; a couple of weeks ago I probably wouldn't have listed him. Since then, he's slipped a bit. I think he's there at #9 for Cincinnati, and given the multitude of needs they suddenly have, trading out of this pick is a definite possibility. In this scenario, Ellis figures to cost us a fourth rounder and some change (maybe a fifth rounder or a 2009 pick). Making all these bold assumptions, Ellis is a great value; however, if Atlanta or Kansas City or New York suddenly fall in love with him, all bets are off. Ellis does have some experience at NT, but is primarily a 3-technique player. Regardless, a player this disruptive will consistently draw double teams in the NFL. Ellis possesses astonishing strength and a high football IQ. He has the potential to blossom into one of those rare talents that makes impact plays in any situation, run or pass. Despite these positives, there are some flags. Ellis has some durability concerns after fracturing his ankle his freshman year and undergoing arthroscopic surgery in 2006. Last season there was some swelling in his knee that had to be drained; however, he didn't miss any playing time as a result. Ultimately, Ellis isn't an ideal fit for our needs at defensive tackle, he comes with some risk, and he'll demand a huge paycheck if selected in the top 10. I wouldn't be saddened to see Denver trade up to draft him, but I do think there are a lot of better options available at a lower cost.

Notable, Left-Out Players:

• DeMario Pressley, N.C. State: Pressley projects as a 3-technique pass rusher. Although probably physically capable of being a 2-gap defender, Pressley has an undisciplined drive to make the big play. The result is that his awareness is very poor. Still, he projects as a fourth rounder. For such a low price, Pressley isn't a bad risk. Despite being a less-than-ideal fit for Denver's immediate needs, Pressley is probably the 'honorable mention' out of this group.
  
  
• Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State: Dorsey is a rare specimen who projects to dominate all phases of the game defensively. He would be a welcome addition to Denver's front four; however, the cost of acquiring Dorsey is prohibitive when on considers the draft picks we'd give up to get him. Without a third rounder, I'm not sure we could move high enough without sacrificing our first rounder next year. Given the price tag, that's an awfully big risk to take on one guy. I'd love to have Dorsey, but its just not in the cards.
  
  
• Trevor Laws, Notre Dame: At 6'0" 301 lbs, Laws isn't getting any bigger. In his present condition, I don't believe he possesses the lower body strength to be effective from the interior in the NFL. Laws doesn't show the ability to anchor the line or bull rush his opponent to collapse the pocket. As a 3-technique player, Laws doesn't have elite speed. He's a technically impressive player with great lateral agility, he plays with passion, and he's a likable guy. Unfortunately, I don't see him developing into an elite defensive tackle in the NFL. If he lost 30 lbs and pushed his 40-time into the 4.6 range, I'd think he could play inside linebacker. Given that he's skyrocketing into the late first round, he's a very poor value in my book.
  
  
• Pat Sims, Auburn: Let me preface this by saying, "I love this guys potential." I think Pat Sims could evolve into the best defensive tackle in this year's draft. The problem from Denver's perspective is that we are already top-heavy with this kind of talent. Our immediate need is to find a 2-gap defender and Sims is simply not that guy. At the combine he came in a tad over 5 seconds in the 40 and put up an unimpressive 20 reps on the bench press. He plays with a great motor and will likely be a great 3-technique tackle after he's added a little muscle to that 6'4" frame, but for 2nd round money, Sims is not a good solution for Denver.
  
  
• Frank Okam, Texas: Okam has ideal size to play NT for a 3-4 defense in the NFL. You may have noticed my top 2 best-value picks were also NT prototypes, so I was tempted to put Okam on the list. What's more, Okam is probably a 4th or 5th rounder, which is pretty cheap. In the end, I couldn't stomach all of Okam's baggage. For one, he's had a host of nagging injuries during his tenure at Texas in addition to arthroscopic surgery in 2006. He showed up at the combine a whopping 347 lbs. This is all remarkably consistent with claims that Okam doesn't take his conditioning seriously. On the field, he undisciplined. Stamina issues result in inconsistent effort and he's susceptible to getting flagged. I see a guy who doesn't have the work ethic to compete long-term in the NFL. That being said, a healthy, hard-working Okam is a great fit for what ails the Broncos at present. Despite this, he's too risky to waste a pick on given the other options available in the draft.
  
  
• Marcus Harrison, Arkansas: Harrison is a poor fit for a 2-gap scheme and comes with loads of character and durability flags. He was academically ineligible his freshman year and was arrested on felony drug charges in 2007. He's torn his ACL and cartilage in his knee. Despite playing the 3-technique, he's been extremely effective against the run in his tenure at Arkansas. Harrison is the closest thing to Marcus Thomas available in this year's draft. Denver doesn't another Marcus Thomas--on or off the field.
  
  
• Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina: Balmer projects as a late first rounder. Were he available as a late-second round/third round talent (where I might add Denver doesn't have any picks), he would probably be on my list. Balmer is a gifted athlete who's had a lackluster college career. He was flat-out dominant (in the ACC?) his senior year after being either injured or unimpressive his first three seasons. A lot of Balmer's woes are probably attributable to bad coaching. The fact that he began producing upon Butch Davis's arrival is probably no small coincidence. Realistically, Balmer is probably a project player. He's likely too raw and inexperienced to immediately live up to his expectations. He may get there eventually, but for 1st round money, I think there are far better options available.
  
  
• Dre Moore, Maryland: Dre is a fashionable pick after an impressive showing at the combine. Still, many are wondering where all that athleticism was on the football field last season? Dre is a 3-technique player who may be a better fit at defensive end in the NFL. He's a physically gifted athlete who needs to develop technique to succeed at the next level. He's a project player and a poor fit for Denver given our current stock of talented, young pass rushers.

Joyner on 2-Gap DT's

For those of you who have ESPN Insider access, KC Joyner has a great write up on interpreting the effectiveness of a 2-gap tackle. This makes a great supplement to my recent article "Triaging Denver's Defensive Line."

In this article, Joyner dispels several myths. For one, he points out that an NT in a 3-4 defense is not really different than a 2-technique tackle in a 4-3. According to this logic, a 3-4 defense effectively plays the 4-3 a high percentage of the time. The definitional difference is that a true NT would line up at the 0-technique (nose to nose with the Center). In practice we know that this is rarely--if ever--true 100% of the time.

It would behoove Broncos fans trying to intellectualize the failings of our run game under Jim Bates to familiarize themselves with the nuances of these different positions and systems. As I've stated earlier, I'll be covering 2-gap options in this year's draft in the near future.

Triaging Denver's Defensive Line

Few things are more promising in Denver than their platoon of young, talented defensive ends. Elvis Dumervil is already considered to be among the best (for those of you without insider access, Joyner lists Dumervil as the 3rd best pass rusher in the NFL) in the business. Tim Crowder shows a ton of promise and works hard. Jarvis Moss will enter training camp healthy; his speed at end could put our pass rush at the top of the league. Add in veterans John Engleberger and Ebenezer Ekuban, and we've got a lot of depth.

So what on earth is wrong with the interior? Assuming Marcus Thomas avoids suspension and plays up to his potential in '08, Thomas and Alvin McKinley are the only serviceable starters on our roster heading into next season. Denver tried desperately to put together a deal for Jets castoff Dwayne Robertson, but that deal is dead in the water for now. Even with a deal for a healthy, fairly-compensated Robertson, we are still in bad shape.

Let's look at what went wrong. First mistake: Shanahan anoints Jim Bates as defensive coordinator. Traditionally a 2-gap scheme, Bates transforms Denver into a smaller, more athletic interior. This experiment is a miserable failure and Shanahan demotes Bates (who later quit) in favor of Bob Slowik. After a string of failed free agent help, Denver is left with some talent that fails to fit the traditional stop-the-run-first defensive scheme. Here's a telling quote to this effect from an anonymous source via Fox Colorado:

“Then they hired the wrong guy Jim Bates, then they get rid of him. See, no one else would have hired Bates because they know he doesn’t know what he’s doing anymore. So you bring him in [Bates], and then you go from using the big 2 gap d-lineman, [and then] go to small guys. Nobody can do that in the middle of the season. You got rid of some guys thinking the young guys would be good, and the young guys aren’t that good…So when you don’t draft well, and you don’t use the personnel you got, now you got a problem…You got a shortage of talent, and no cap room,” said agent A.

Just how bad were we? Put it this way, Marcus Thomas lead all Broncos DT's in tackles last season with 20. There were 82 tackles in the NFL last season that bested this total; this amounts to 2.6 players per team. Yikes! That's embarrassing.

Under new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik, Denver will almost certainly return to a 2-gap scheme. To do so, we are (a) going to have to add multiple defensive tackles in April's draft and (b) going to have to find specific types of talents to balance our line. In the coming week, I'm going to talk specifically about who I think are the best fit for these needs in this year's draft.

In contemplation of this analysis, lets review some basic defensive-line jargon to help differentiate between different types of defensive line talents. Defensive tackles are often referred to as 0-technique (aka "NT"), 2-technique, or 3-technique. You may also have heard them referred to as 1-gap or 2-gap tackles. Here's a breakdown of what each term specifically means:

• Technique: This term actually refers to where the DT lines up. In defensive terminology there are 3 gaps: the A-gap, B-gap, and C-gap. The A-gap refers to the space (on either side) between the Center and the Guard; the B-gap refers to the space between the Guard and the Tackle; and the C-gap refers to the space outside the tackle. A 0-technique tackle lines up nose to nose with the Center (hence "Nose Tackle");a 1-technique tackle lines up in the A-gap; a 2-technique tackle lines up nose to nose with the Guard; and a 3-technique tackle lines up in the B-gap.
  
  When referring to a 3-technique tackle, the media is referring to a player that is a pass rush specialist. Denver doesn't use a "nose tackle" but instead relies on 2-technique tackles, which are typically adept at stopping the run. A select few DT's can be effective at the 1-technique or the 2-technique. Many DT's are capable of handling the 3-technique or the 2-technique. To better understand why this is, we need to talk about gap assignments.
  
  
• Gap Assignments: Defensive tackles are also categorized as 1-gap or 2-gap tackles. A 1-gap tackle is a pass-rush specialist. His assignment is to line up in the B-gap (hence they are also called "3-technique tackles") and 'shoot the gap' to break into the backfield and disrupt the play. These are smaller, more agile players.
  
  A 2-gap tackle will (in the 4-3) generally line up at the 2-technique (nose to nose with the guard). Because they have a gap on either side, they are not trying to penetrate the line. Rather, their role is to cover both gaps in the case of a run or to collapse the pocket in the case of pass. These are heavier, stronger players.

In many ways, these definitions are an oversimplification; however, understanding of these basic principles will help you realize the type of talent Denver will be looking to acquire in this year's draft. In the coming days, I'll discuss the draft prospects at defensive tackle and try and sort out who should be on our radar in April.

A Trade for Robertson Unlikely

Several news sources have quoted Shanahan speaking ominously about the possibility of a trade for Robertson. Shanahan confirmed that Robertson failed his physical. Injury concerns and contract issues had me weary about the advantage in bringing in Robertson. Still, Robertson's experience at NT is something absent from Denver's repertoire at present. It looks like we're going to have to address this need on draft day. More on this to come...

Robertson Trade Talks Still Underway

Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this situation? Robertson--a huge disappointment in terms of his draft stock--looks like he'll cost us between $8 and $11 million against the cap. As if they weren't shady enough, he couldn't pass a physical in February.

I'm sure the Jets are anxious to get this guy off their books (maybe for good reason), but I get the feeling that Denver is the sucker in this deal. I can't remember the last time Denver signed a big-time free agent NT that didn't blow up in their face (Dan Wilkerson, Sam Adams, Daryle Gardner). Is it possible to get this done on draft day?