D-Rob a Panacea for the D-Line?

Seemingly so, if you read this morning's Denver Post:

"The question is not whether they can get a quality tackle, the question is whether they get one they feel is worthy of the No. 12 selection and pay scale," said Jeffrey Foster, president of NFL Scouting Inc., which serves 20 teams, including the Broncos. "There will be a tackle there that they like, but is he worth 12th-pick money? Those are questions that head coaches and salary cap guys and personnel guys start debating."

What the Broncos won't do is trade up for Sedrick Ellis or down for Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackles projected for the first round. The position is no longer a top priority after the Broncos acquired defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson from the New York Jets on Thursday in exchange for a 2009 conditional draft pick. "

A couple of thoughts:

• I absolutely agree with the first quote. I believe Denver likes several offensive line prospects available at #12 in this year's draft; however, I don't believe that Denver thinks they are all worth 12th pick money. In fact, Ryan Clady is the only guy I believe Denver is truly interested in drafting if they stay put in round 1. If some combination of Mendenhall, Rivers, McKelvin, Thomas, and Harvey are on the board when Denver picks, they will likely try and move down to take Williams, Otah, or Cherilius. If they don't receive a reasonable trade offer, don't be surprised to hear Mendenhall's, Rivers', or Harvey's name called at 12th overall. With the tackle class this deep, Denver isn't going to overpay for a player based on need.
  
  
• I disagree with the second part of this quote. Conservatively speaking, Denver views D-Rob as a stopgap at defensive tackle. Sure, he's a young guy with plenty of talent, but his knees are a ticking timebomb waiting to go off. What Robertson buys the Broncos is time. My guess is that Shanahan uses that time wisely. That is, he will add a lot of talent to the position this weekend. Only the rarest defensive tackle is capable of stepping in to a rotation and making an impact their first year. Thus, I don't buy that Denver isn't interested in trading up to acquire Sedrick Ellis. In fact, I think they'll have to deal with Cincinnati on the issue who may already be positioning themselves to negotiate a deal.

Broncos.com Confirms D-Rob Trade

Broncos.com has confirmed the Dwayne Robertson was acquired today for only a conditional 2009 draft pick. This is shocking news given that the asking price for Robertson was reportedly much higher. Should Robertson, who's seldom missed a start during his 4 year career, overcome concerns about the health of his knees, he'll be an absolute steal at this price. Reportedly, Denver surrenders the pick only if Robertson makes it through training camp healthy.

D-Rob a Bronco

ESPN reports that Jets DT Dwayne Robertson has been dealt to Denver for undisclosed draft picks. No details of the deal are available, however, Cincinnati reportedly withdrew an offer for a 4th and a 5th rounder, suggesting Denver's offer was less profitable for the Jets. Should Robertson stay healthy, he would provide much needed relief to Denver's depleted defensive line.

UPDATE: ESPN's Bill Williamson has carefully chosen the phrase "pick or picks" in highlighting Denver's cost in this deal. The possibility that we have spend a single first-day pick still remains. Adam Schefter is now reporting that Denver will send a conditional 2009 pick as compensation. I need more than one hand to count the number of times Adam Schefter has reported something that turned out to be purely fabricated. I'm still not convinced that Denver won't part with a 2008 pick between rounds 4 and 6.

Also, Jeff Legwold just published a short article on this developing situation. After reading it I have a couple of notable insights:

• Word of this deal was apparently leaked by Oakland who recently inquired about his availability. This could mean that Denver didn't want this information released publicly until the draft. So long as the draft-pick compensation is undisclosed, Denver still retains some strategic leverage over third parties whose tactical decisions on draft day would be affected by this deal. In other words, don't expect to hear the full details of this deal until next Sunday.
  
  
• Shanahan recently intimated that a deal for Robertson was unlikely because he considered his knees to be a "big risk." Lets get the obvious out of the way here: this could easily be construed as a smoke screen. Given all the interest Robertson has received, that would've been prudent. Not so obvious are the details of the new contract Denver has negotiated with Robertson in consideration of this deal. The Broncos certainly aren't going to pay the $18 million he's owed over the next two seasons. More likely, Robertson will receive some kind of incentive-laden deal predicated largely on the number of games he suits up for.
  
  
• Most telling in this situation is the level of effort displayed by Cincinnati. Depending on how you look at it, there are a couple of ways you can interpret these moves:
  
  
  1. One might conjecture that Cincinnati had no intention of drafting Sedrick Ellis at 9th overall and were looking for a stop gap option. I tend not to subscribe to this believe.
     
  2. I'd argue that Cincinnati has tipped their hand that defensive tackle is this most pressing need on Saturday. Burning question: did D-Rob's failed physical deal Denver out of any shot at Sedrick Ellis on Saturday? Time will tell.
     
  3. This could also possibly be an elaborate ploy by Cincinnati to increase their credibility in any potential trade agreement with Denver on draft day. Cincinnati is 2 picks removed from Denver in nearly ever round and also has glaring needs at DT, so this would make sense.

The more I read about this deal the more I like it. Assuming such an incentive-laden contract is in place, Denver has secured a decent chance of having a veteran defensive tackle to anchor the currently young, depleted line. Perhaps Robertson's knees keep him sidelined through much of the 2008 season and he retires; Denver would lose a pick and a paltry sum of cap room. Perhaps Robertson is effective and healthy in 2008 before succumbing to health problems; Denver would give their 2008 draft prospects a year to develop behind a veteran defender. Or perhaps Robertson stays healthy long term and anchors Denver's defensive line; what a steal that would be! The third scenario is not out of the question. After all, Robertson is only 27 years old. There's a lot of room for optimism in this move.

Robertson Reportedly Costs a 2nd Rounder

TSN's AFC West Draft Preview reports that Dwayne Robertson's price tag is the equivalent of a 2nd-round pick. Earlier this month, several news sources suggested that Robertson would cost two of Denver's 4th through 6th round picks. Since then, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have entered the market for Robertson, driving his price up. This is an astonishingly-high price to pay for a perennial underachiever with a bone-on-bone knee condition. If Robertson's reported cost is factually correct, I would be shocked (and enraged) if Denver made this deal.

The authors at TSN predict Denver will take some players which are strikingly similar to my own draft analysis. For instance, they predict Denver will take a offensive tackle in the first round; however, they note that the offensive tackle class is so deep that they could just as easily address this need later in the draft. Rashard Mendenhall or a wide receiver are suggested as possible alternatives. Mimicking my preferences on draft day, they predict Denver will take ILB Curtis Lofton. At the top of round 4, they suggest Denver will take Red Bryant, who was second on my 'best-value DT's' list earlier this month.

Robertson Deal Appears Imminent

Scouts.com is reporting that the Broncos and Jets have nearly completed a deal that would send defensive tackle Dwayne Robertson to Denver. According to an anonymous source, Denver will reportedly give up two of its five draft picks between rounds 4 and 6 to complete the deal.

Two picks? This makes me cringe. There's no question Denver needs immediate help along the defensive line but I think there are better options available with those picks. Between Robertson's bad knees and his failure to develop into the kind of talent his 4th-overall draft selection portended, this seems like a hefty fee.

Let's hope both picks are from day 2 of the draft.

Pro Football Weekly Mock Draft

Pro Football Weekly’s latest mock draft has Denver drafting Boise State’s Ryan Clady at #12. Given his horrible Wonderlic score, less-than-ideal attitude, and our youth at the position, I would be flabbergasted if this was our pick. As a side note, they also have USC OLB Keith River’s slipping to #29 and Sedrick Ellis drafted to play NT for Cincinnati; both projections are preposterous. Who writes this garbage?

Update: The Sedrick-Ellis-to-Cincinnati rumors are so ubiquitous at this point that I am conceding they may be considering this move. I don't see Ellis as being a unique fit for this system and think Cincinnati is the perfect trade suitor for Denver in the event that Ellis is available at #9. Given that Cincinnati has emerged as a competitor in the Dwayne Robertson sweepstakes, there could be some interesting moves made between the Jets, Bengals, and Broncos on draft day.

A Trade for Robertson Unlikely

Several news sources have quoted Shanahan speaking ominously about the possibility of a trade for Robertson. Shanahan confirmed that Robertson failed his physical. Injury concerns and contract issues had me weary about the advantage in bringing in Robertson. Still, Robertson's experience at NT is something absent from Denver's repertoire at present. It looks like we're going to have to address this need on draft day. More on this to come...

Robertson Trade Talks Still Underway

Does anyone else have a bad feeling about this situation? Robertson--a huge disappointment in terms of his draft stock--looks like he'll cost us between $8 and $11 million against the cap. As if they weren't shady enough, he couldn't pass a physical in February.

I'm sure the Jets are anxious to get this guy off their books (maybe for good reason), but I get the feeling that Denver is the sucker in this deal. I can't remember the last time Denver signed a big-time free agent NT that didn't blow up in their face (Dan Wilkerson, Sam Adams, Daryle Gardner). Is it possible to get this done on draft day?