The careers of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning do come into play regarding the Broncos' Super Bowl aspirations. I'm going to assume those two quarterbacks have not won their last Super Bowls. ...Even if the Broncos put together another 13-3 season in, say, 2009, would they be able to get past Brady and Manning in the postseason?
For now, I'll say this: With Jay Cutler as their quarterback, the Broncos will be in good shape to make a Super Bowl run as soon as Brady and Manning slip. If I knew exactly when the fade of those great quarterbacks will occur, I'd probably be asked to take on tasks less fulfilling than opening letters from the Broncos Mailbag.
A cursory glance at the history of the Super Bowl should tell us that this logic is flawed. Recall, it was Eli Manning, rather than Tom Brady who took home the Super Bowl ring last season. I also remember another Manning brother getting ousted by the always-unsportsmanlike Philip Rivers week 2. Glancing back at Super Bowl history, this argument makes even less sense. Here's a short list of less-than-godlike Super Bowl champion quarterbacks over the last 30 years:
- Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (2006). A rookie, no less. Not to mention, one who threw 23 picks and only 18 touchdowns the following season.
- Brad Johnson, Tampa Bay (2005). The quarterback position was a disaster for this team the whole year. Johnson started three games and the entire postseason after the Bucs lost Griese to injury and a failed Shaun King experiment.
- Trent Dilfer, Baltimore (2001). He was probably the 11th best player on this stacked offense that featured a 2000 yard rusher, but landed the Disneyworld endorsement over a recently acquitted Ray Lewis (MVP) nevertheless.
- Mark Rypien, Washington (1992). Rypien certainly had a great season (league MVP/Super Bowl MVP) but didn't last another year in the league after this anomalous run.
- Jeff Hostetler, New York (1991). Tuna looked like he was cooked when Phil Simms broke his foot in the AFC championship.
- Doug Williams, Washington (1988). Gibbs engineered another Super Bowl with no hall of fame quarterback on the roster.
- Jim McMahon, Chicago (1986). McMahon might be the cockiest quarterback in league history, but he's no where near the best. In the mold of Trent Dilfer, McMahon was asked not to lose the game but not expected to win it.
- Jim Plunkett, Oakland (1984; 1981). Plunkett has a career passer rating of 67.1. He threw 167 touchdowns and 198 interceptions for his career. He was aged 37 when he won this championship. Plunkett arguably holds the dubious distinction of being the worst quarterback to ever win two Super Bowls (Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese are probably the other two candidates).
How much worse is Cutler than Brady or Manning? The answer is probably, "not as bad as you think." Cutler was tied with Manning for third in the NFL with 14 interceptions last season (for 16-game starters). He also completed 63.1% of his passes his first full season as an NFL starter. Cutler's 7.5 YPA is above average and will improve as the receiving core continues to improve. Cutler finished the second half of the season on a pace to have 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If you have a 2:1 TD-Int ratio in the NFL, you're doing something right.
Cutler throws the ball as hard as Favre or Elway, he's extremely accurate for a first year starter, and he's mobile. His low pick totals are a credit to his poise under pressure and awareness. Despite losing 3 starters on the offensive line, Cutler got better and better as the season progressed.
Really, we have no idea what Cutler's upside is, but its bootless to say that he simply should wait for Brady and Manning to retire. If that's true, Cutler will be 30 before we've even got a shot at a ring. I just don't buy that.
This year, the Patriots lost pro-bowler Asante Samuel, safety Eugene Wilson, and defensive lineman Roosevelt Colvin. Vrabel, Seau, Bruschi, and Harrison don't have much gas left in the tank. Adalius Thomas is in his 30's. If the Patriots are standing in our way, they better reload that defense. My guess is that Belichick retires either this year or in 2009. With the youth movement in Denver, there's no reason we can't be a Super Bowl competitor in the next two to three years.
