Where's the Shana-hate, ESPN?

Either Shanahan is on the hot seat or he's not! You can't have it both ways ESPN. Bill Williamson's latest article lists coaches and GM's whose jobs are hanging in the balance this April. Strangely, Shanahan is not even an honorable mention on the list. After all the Shana-hate ESPN has propagated, it seems like he'd be close to the top of this list, doesn't it?

Revealing Comments from Shanahan

The Rocky Mountain News has a summary of comments made by Shanahan at his latest press conference. Among these are the following notable tidbits:

• Shanahan confirmed the free-agent acquisition Keary Colbert will line up opposite Brandon Marshall at WR. In justifying this decision, Shanahan compared Colbert to Eddie McCaffrey who, like Colbert, was left for dead by the Giants before resurrecting his career in Denver.
  
  
• Shanahan stated Chris Kuper comes into camp as the starter at left tackle rather than 2006 3rd-rounder Ryan Harris. This was unexpected given that Kuper filled in at guard last season for the injured Ben Hamilton while Erik Pears manned the right tackle position. Many (including me) expected Pears and Kuper to compete at right tackle while Harris manned the left side. Pears apparently will keep his job from last year moving Harris to 3rd on the depth chart. Ben Hamilton and Montrae Holland are the starters at guard.
  
  
• According to the Denver Post, Shanahan also defended his decision to fire Ted Sundquist. The article quotes Shanahan as saying the following:
  
  

  "With Ted, I don't make a decision like that very quickly," Shanahan said. "It was a very tough decision. But I thought it was one I needed to make because eventually it gives us the best chance to be a better football team. I don't go into any reasons why."

  
  
  Shanahan also vigorously refuted the accusation that he's fired every defensive coordinator he's ever met. In his defense, Shanahan pointed out the--despite what most seem to think--Ray Rhodes retired in 2002 for health reasons. He also points out that he gave Slowik the reigns on the defense but didn't want Bates to quit.
  
  On offense, Heimerdinger and Kubiak left to pursue different opportunities. Shanahan insightfully points out that any success in the running game is credited to Rick Dennison, in the passing game Shanahan gets the credit. From that perspective, it makes sense that a talented offensive coordinator would want to get out of Shanahan's shadow.

Based on Shanahan's comments, the likelihood of Denver going after a receiver or tackle with the 12th overall pick is seemingly small. For the rest of his comments, check out the article linked above.

It's also nice to see a columnist defend Shanahan. The press has been acrimonious ever since Sundquist was fired. Ultimately, a return to the top of the AFC in 2009 will turn all these carpers into neophytes.

A Look at Denver's Red Zone Efficency

All right Shana-haters, lets talk red zone efficiency. Lately, pundits of the Shanahan regime have argued that his red zone offense is no longer elite, and therefore the game has 'passed him by'. I decided to investigate this oft-cited anti-Shanahan reasoning to put the debate to rest.

Much to the chagrin of the Shana-haters, Denver's red zone offense has been something between average and dominant the last five years--just like our winning percentage. Here are the numbers:

Denver Broncos Red Zone Efficiency (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	Scoring %	Rank	TD %	Rank
2007	51	0.863	16	0.49	21
2006	44	0.977	1	0.545	12
2005	58	0.862	13	0.603	7
2004	53	0.792	28	0.453	27
2003	56	0.875	11	0.554	8
	262	0.8738	13.8	0.529	15

Aggregate Red Zone Efficiency-All Teams (2003-2007)

Year	Attempts	TD	FG	Scor %	TD %
2007	1548	809	527	.863	.523
2006	1521	773	501	.837	.508
2005	1551	792	528	.851	.511
2004	1557	839	454	.830	.539
2003	1522	781	496	.839	.513
	7699	3994	2506	.844	.519

As you can see, claims that Denver's red zone offense is ineffective are factually incorrect. Rather, we've consistently ranked in the top half of the league in both touchdown percentage and scoring percentage in the red zone. The extreme exception to this trend is 2004; a season in which Plummer broke Elway's franchise records for passing yards and touchdowns. Ironically, this is also the season that Broncos fans cling to when berating Shanahan for putting the handcuffs on Jake the Snake.

Consistent with our 7-9 record last season, our red zone efficiency was slightly below average. Scoring percentage was par for the course while touchdown percentage--as many, many people have noted of late--was ranked a paltry 21st in the league. While 2007 was undoubtedly a statistical slide from previous Broncos seasons, the offense didn't perform that badly when injuries to Lepsis, Hamilton, Nalen, Henry, Walker, Stokely, and Scheffler (did I miss any non-first-year starter other than Graham and Marshall??) are taken into account.

Finally, the controversial 2006 season in which Plummer was unceremoniously dumped as starting QB was an exemplary year for Denver's offense despite our failure to reach the playoffs. Contrary to popular belief, it was our defense that cost us a championship run rather than the offense under Jay Cutler.

Unfortunately, the Shanahan lynch mob seems to have a short term memory. Shanahan's offensive track record since Elway retired is elite compared to the rest of the league. The Broncos fan base has enjoyed over a decade of competitive excellence in the NFL. The downside to this excess is that 7-10 win seasons have grown stale; Broncos fans are yearning for their team to recapture the Super Bowl years. Let them run Shanahan out of town and feel the sting of a 1-15 season and they'll beat a different drum. With many things in life, we don't value what we have until we've lost it. This is one lesson I'd rather not learn the hard way.

NOTE: My rudimentary HTML skills have me baffled at how to remove the annoying space between the table headers and the tables. Next time I'll just embed a screen shot! If you want a copy of the data you can find it here. All red zone statistics were gathered from Pro Football Weekly.