Redressing Denver's Defensive Line: Draft-Day DT's

For Denver, there is arguably no greater draft-day need than defensive tackle. After a disastrous reformulation of the defensive line in '07, Denver has neither the personnel nor the depth to field a respectable run defense in 2008. After failing to find a solution in free agency, the upcoming NFL draft is our last opportunity to find a cure. Recommendations among Broncos faithful range from trading up on draft day to switching to a 3-4.

The good news is that Denver is chock full of talent along the defensive front; the bad news is that there are glaring defects in the chemistry of this group. Namely, Denver's defensive line is horrid against the run. To solve this problem, Denver should look to draft a run specialist, capable of defending multiple gaps and taking on multiple blockers. To understand why this is the case, I encourage you to read my recent post, "Triaging Denver's Defensive Line."

In this article, I'm going to reveal my best-value picks at defensive tackle available in this year's draft. Before I begin, its important that I clarify what is meant by best-value picks. There are two components to value: cost and benefit. A player drafted in later rounds carries a lower opportunity cost than those drafted earlier; additionally, the later a player is drafted, the smaller their contract. Thus, while Glenn Dorsey is arguably the "best" player in this year's draft, Denver's cost to draft him would be several draft picks and a huge contract, so he wouldn't likely be a "best value." In fact, I'll end the suspense right now and tell you that Dorsey isn't on the list.

Without further adieu, here are my best-value picks at defensive tackle in the upcoming draft:

#1: Athyba ("ah-TAH-ba") Rubin, Iowa St.: A massive, powerful lineman, Athyba is the perfect fit for Denver's lackluster run defense. Athyba put up an incredible 35 reps at the combine (tied for first) and turned in a respectable 40 time of 5.22. He is an anchor at the point of attack, shows great awareness, has the ability to take on multiple blockers, sheds blocks well, and shows tremendous lateral agility. Athyba isn't a great pass rusher, but excels at collapsing the pocket to disrupt the passing game. Athyba shows none of the character or motivation flags that seem to plague the defensive tackle position. Athyba's combination of size, athleticism, and maturity enable him to make an immediate impact on Denver's anemic run defense. Draft-day analysts predict Rubin will go anywhere from the 3rd to the 5th round. Assuming he goes in round 3, Rubin's value is off the chart. Of all DT's in this year's draft, Rubin is the best candidate to shore up Denver's defensive woes in 2008 and for years to come.

#2: Red Bryant, Texas A&M: At 6'4" 320lbs, Red Bryant wouldn't be a bad consolation prize if we missed out on Athyba Rubin in the draft (imagine if we took both in the 4th round). After amassing 20 bench-press reps at the combine, Red's draft stock plummeted amidst concerns about his strength; however, with all the 'pluses' Bryant has in his favor, one has to caution against throwing out the baby with the bath water. Assuming for a moment that his bench reps are an accurate sample of his strength, Bryant certainly has the frame to pack on some muscle. To add to this, Bryant has the intangibles needed to excel at the next level. To put it simply, Bryant is a football guy. On the field he's passionate, vocal, and possesses as never-ending motor. Off the field, he's a leader. The undisputed team captain of the '07 Longhorns, Bryant has zero character flags and a blue-collar work ethic. He'll never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL (although he did run a 5.0 40-yard dash), but Bryant has all the tools necessary to evolve into an elite interior run stuffer. He injured his ACL in 2006 and thus carries some durability risk; however, given his 3rd-round price tag he's a great value.

#3: Nick Hayden, Wisconsin: There's nothing sexy about Hayden; however, he also has no glaring defects either (unlike a lot of higher-rated DT's) Hayden will never be an elite pass rusher in the NFL, but as a gap defender he's a steal in the sixth round. At the combine this year Hayden did 34 reps to match his solid 5.2 40-yard dash time. Weighing only 291 lbs, Hayden already possesses elite strength. His massive 6'3" frame has plenty of room to add extra bulk. Hayden is an extremely hard worker, has zero character flags, and has no history of injury. In 2008, he would provide great rotational depth. If history is any indication of Hayden's future, he could easily blossom into an enviable starter in a 2-gap scheme.

#4: Letroy Guion, Florida: Guion is a project pick with a ton of upside. The biggest knock on Guion is his experience: he's leaving Florida after only one full season as a starter. Guion's athletic gifts leave little to be desired. He has great lower- and upper-body strength, fast hands, and an explosive first step. Guion is capable of developing an elite pass rush to match his effectiveness as a run defender. He works hard in the weight room and comes with zero character flags. Because he lack's experience, Guion's technique is raw and inconsistent. When he has been technically sound, Guion has been brilliant. As a 4th or 5th round value, a project like Guion comes at a low cost. This is a likely pick given Shanahan's willingness to throw away a third-rounder to grab Guion's teammate Jarvis Moss in the 2007 NFL draft.

#5: Sedrick Ellis, Southern California: I thought of listing my best-value picks in reverse order, but finally decided that putting Sedrick Ellis at #5 was suspenseful enough. I can already hear the rage from Ellis-obsessed Broncos fans. It's not a gimmick, mind you; a couple of weeks ago I probably wouldn't have listed him. Since then, he's slipped a bit. I think he's there at #9 for Cincinnati, and given the multitude of needs they suddenly have, trading out of this pick is a definite possibility. In this scenario, Ellis figures to cost us a fourth rounder and some change (maybe a fifth rounder or a 2009 pick). Making all these bold assumptions, Ellis is a great value; however, if Atlanta or Kansas City or New York suddenly fall in love with him, all bets are off. Ellis does have some experience at NT, but is primarily a 3-technique player. Regardless, a player this disruptive will consistently draw double teams in the NFL. Ellis possesses astonishing strength and a high football IQ. He has the potential to blossom into one of those rare talents that makes impact plays in any situation, run or pass. Despite these positives, there are some flags. Ellis has some durability concerns after fracturing his ankle his freshman year and undergoing arthroscopic surgery in 2006. Last season there was some swelling in his knee that had to be drained; however, he didn't miss any playing time as a result. Ultimately, Ellis isn't an ideal fit for our needs at defensive tackle, he comes with some risk, and he'll demand a huge paycheck if selected in the top 10. I wouldn't be saddened to see Denver trade up to draft him, but I do think there are a lot of better options available at a lower cost.

Notable, Left-Out Players:

• DeMario Pressley, N.C. State: Pressley projects as a 3-technique pass rusher. Although probably physically capable of being a 2-gap defender, Pressley has an undisciplined drive to make the big play. The result is that his awareness is very poor. Still, he projects as a fourth rounder. For such a low price, Pressley isn't a bad risk. Despite being a less-than-ideal fit for Denver's immediate needs, Pressley is probably the 'honorable mention' out of this group.
  
  
• Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State: Dorsey is a rare specimen who projects to dominate all phases of the game defensively. He would be a welcome addition to Denver's front four; however, the cost of acquiring Dorsey is prohibitive when on considers the draft picks we'd give up to get him. Without a third rounder, I'm not sure we could move high enough without sacrificing our first rounder next year. Given the price tag, that's an awfully big risk to take on one guy. I'd love to have Dorsey, but its just not in the cards.
  
  
• Trevor Laws, Notre Dame: At 6'0" 301 lbs, Laws isn't getting any bigger. In his present condition, I don't believe he possesses the lower body strength to be effective from the interior in the NFL. Laws doesn't show the ability to anchor the line or bull rush his opponent to collapse the pocket. As a 3-technique player, Laws doesn't have elite speed. He's a technically impressive player with great lateral agility, he plays with passion, and he's a likable guy. Unfortunately, I don't see him developing into an elite defensive tackle in the NFL. If he lost 30 lbs and pushed his 40-time into the 4.6 range, I'd think he could play inside linebacker. Given that he's skyrocketing into the late first round, he's a very poor value in my book.
  
  
• Pat Sims, Auburn: Let me preface this by saying, "I love this guys potential." I think Pat Sims could evolve into the best defensive tackle in this year's draft. The problem from Denver's perspective is that we are already top-heavy with this kind of talent. Our immediate need is to find a 2-gap defender and Sims is simply not that guy. At the combine he came in a tad over 5 seconds in the 40 and put up an unimpressive 20 reps on the bench press. He plays with a great motor and will likely be a great 3-technique tackle after he's added a little muscle to that 6'4" frame, but for 2nd round money, Sims is not a good solution for Denver.
  
  
• Frank Okam, Texas: Okam has ideal size to play NT for a 3-4 defense in the NFL. You may have noticed my top 2 best-value picks were also NT prototypes, so I was tempted to put Okam on the list. What's more, Okam is probably a 4th or 5th rounder, which is pretty cheap. In the end, I couldn't stomach all of Okam's baggage. For one, he's had a host of nagging injuries during his tenure at Texas in addition to arthroscopic surgery in 2006. He showed up at the combine a whopping 347 lbs. This is all remarkably consistent with claims that Okam doesn't take his conditioning seriously. On the field, he undisciplined. Stamina issues result in inconsistent effort and he's susceptible to getting flagged. I see a guy who doesn't have the work ethic to compete long-term in the NFL. That being said, a healthy, hard-working Okam is a great fit for what ails the Broncos at present. Despite this, he's too risky to waste a pick on given the other options available in the draft.
  
  
• Marcus Harrison, Arkansas: Harrison is a poor fit for a 2-gap scheme and comes with loads of character and durability flags. He was academically ineligible his freshman year and was arrested on felony drug charges in 2007. He's torn his ACL and cartilage in his knee. Despite playing the 3-technique, he's been extremely effective against the run in his tenure at Arkansas. Harrison is the closest thing to Marcus Thomas available in this year's draft. Denver doesn't another Marcus Thomas--on or off the field.
  
  
• Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina: Balmer projects as a late first rounder. Were he available as a late-second round/third round talent (where I might add Denver doesn't have any picks), he would probably be on my list. Balmer is a gifted athlete who's had a lackluster college career. He was flat-out dominant (in the ACC?) his senior year after being either injured or unimpressive his first three seasons. A lot of Balmer's woes are probably attributable to bad coaching. The fact that he began producing upon Butch Davis's arrival is probably no small coincidence. Realistically, Balmer is probably a project player. He's likely too raw and inexperienced to immediately live up to his expectations. He may get there eventually, but for 1st round money, I think there are far better options available.
  
  
• Dre Moore, Maryland: Dre is a fashionable pick after an impressive showing at the combine. Still, many are wondering where all that athleticism was on the football field last season? Dre is a 3-technique player who may be a better fit at defensive end in the NFL. He's a physically gifted athlete who needs to develop technique to succeed at the next level. He's a project player and a poor fit for Denver given our current stock of talented, young pass rushers.