But that's if [Shanahan] had to play a game right now. All that is, for the moment, is the announced first chance for everybody to keep those positions. He won't hesitate to change if he thinks something is amiss. But [Shanahan] also knows this is not a particularly good year for guards in the draft so immediate help would not be on the way from that avenue.
Certainly I'm willing to concede that Kuper and Pears aren't going to strike fear in the hearts of their AFC opponents--Jared Allen and Shawn Merriman in particular; however, no matter how hard I try, I simply cannot align myself with this thinking that Denver ought to grab the top offensive tackle available in this year's draft.
Zone blocking doesn't require you to have dominant athletes along the offensive line. Instead, you need heady players able and willing to execute proper technique. To be effective, great teamwork and chemistry are far more important than having the best athletes. Denver is blessed in that we already have the best zone blocking architect in the NFL: Rick Dennison (eat your heart out Alex Gibbs).
A look back at Denver's offensive line history overwhelmingly supports the argument that, to have an elite offensive line, we don't need to draft first round talent. Tom Nalen and Matt Lepsis are the poster childs of this theory; Nalen was a 7th round pick and Lepsis went undrafted. That's a far cry worse than incumbent tackle Chris Kuper, who was a 5th round pick in 2006. Denver currently starts a pair of 4th rounders at guard, and undrafted Erik Pears currently holds down the job at right tackle.
Shanahan's short list of lineman selected at the top of the draft have fared much worse. 20th-overall-pick George Foster held down the right tackle job for three years before finally being dumped on the always-incompetent Matt Millen and his Detroit Lions. Foster lasted 9 games last year before losing his job there. Ryan Harris was taken last year with a 3rd-rounder obtained from the Redskins; he currently sits behind Pears and Kuper on the depth chart. Does anyone remember Lennie Friedman? A 3rd-round center drafted from Duke, Friedman was converted to guard where he eventually gave Denver 22 starts. A career backup, Friedman spent several seasons in Washington before settling in Cleveland.
I agree that Denver does not currently possess adequate depth along the offensive line heading into 2008. Based on the players we do have, I think our immediate need is at guard rather than at tackle. With the questionable health of Ben Hamilton, it would seem prudent to add one or even two prospects via the draft.
Based on the preceding analysis, I obviously don't think the first round is the place to get this done. In fact, I would be outraged if Denver spent a 12th overall pick on an offensive lineman. Trading down to take a talent like Chris Williams might be palatable, but ultimately I think our first-day picks are better spent elsewhere.
All this said, the argument that I'm overly-optimistic about Denver's stock of offensive lineman is perhaps a valid one. I steadfastly believe that the system and the coaching are the solution at offensive line. We're already the envy of the league in that department. Let's hope it stays that way for years to come.
5 comments:
This is a subject that I can agree with you 100% on, and I too would be accused of being overly optimistic.
Here is a thought: When I look at the line, I see business as usual; at T we have 3 players in the mix, with two starters (though one only ever started at G) and a first day draft pick. At G we have two solid starters, and a clear backup who started last year (unless he is the best T on the roster, lol) Center is awesome, with veteran depth and two unproven young guys in the mix for a roster spot. To me this sounds like business as usual, and hardly warrants a first day pick on Oline, when we would essentially be targeting depth. Now obviously a guy like Williams has the potential to be better than either Pears or Harris (and most definitely Kuper at T). But here is my thought:
could the reaction of many Broncos fans be amplified by fear born of our two straight dismal and disappointing years? If we had this same roster (perhaps due to injury or retirements), but a steady trend of success wouldn't most fans be saying "Do what you always do Denver, find great values late and scoff at anyone who can't survive without first round offensive linemen."?
The most disturbing thing to me is how afraid broncos fans are getting. This is no time to abandon the best elements of this team that have kept us going through the hard times. Now more than ever we need to stick to our guns, find RB and Oline value late and give ourselves that many more opportunities to target top talent for other areas of the team. The Broncos haven't earned much in the past drafts (its getting better though), but they have certainly earned the right be patient with RBs and Oline.
Rant over, sorry bout that. :)
I absolutely agree. With the exception of two abysmal road games late in the season against Houston and San Diego (who also happen to boast the leagues most formidable pass rushes), Cutler's pass protection was great last year. The real issue seems to be the running game. If we were going to address this in the first round, I'd rather take a solution at running back than at O-line. I think the O-line did a decent job creating gaps last season, I just think we were incredibly thin on running back talent.
When I scan over the last 3 seasons, a couple of things consistently hurt us in big games. For one, running back fumbles (e.g. Quentin Griffin in field goal range against Jacksonville) have killed us. While Shanahan certainly has a knack for finding serviceable system backs, we haven't had a guy (even in Portis) who was capable of doing all the little things. Travis Henry is supposed to be an excellent pass blocker; I didn't notice a difference.
Now I'm not proposing we go RB in the first round, but I certainly think a better argument could be made for such a move, given that the offensive line has been business as usual since Shanahan arrived in 1995.
Any season in which you lose the entire left side of your line to injuries is going to impact performance. From my assessment, 1 or 2 fifth round talents should give us stable depth to get through 2008. With time, there's no reason why Kuper, Harris, or Pears can't be just as effective as Lepsis.
Thanks for posting.
The type of offensive line talent that Denver needs to build an effective zone blocking unit is unique with regard to size and athleticism. The right kind of guys don't appeal to more traditional systems and therefore their tends to be an abundance of these types on the market--relative to your prototype LT's. I don't think that Denver can justify taking a tackle in the first round because I don't think the 3rd through 7th round talent available is a whole lot worse.
The lone exception to this logic would arguably be Clady, who is a remarkable fit for our scheme (and who is reportedly desperate to wear orange and blue). That said, Clady is probably not there for us at #12 and, even if he is, he comes with some motivation concerns.
Zimmerman is unique in that he was actually a 2nd rounder--that's a pretty high pick for a Denver OT; but he was drafted by the Vikings. Hogs lineman and Broncos Super Bowl Guard was a 10th rounder. Nalen was a 7th, Tony Jones a 6th (Oilers), Brian Habib was a 10th rounder. Anecdotally speaking, Zimmerman is the exception rather than the rule.
So, I respectfully disagree with your opinion; but only because I think that--in this situation--it's possible to have our cake and eat it to (so to speak). We can have a great line without spending quality draft picks and shelling out 12th-pick money.
Thank you for commenting! You are definitely not in the minority when you predict Denver should/will go tackle in two weeks.
Hogs lineman and Broncos Super Bowl Guard Mark Schlereth (aka "Stinky")
the1one:
I responded to your latest post by writing an article, rather than replying directly in these comments. Thank you for your intriguing comments. I'd love it if you continued the debate in the new article!
Thanks.
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